国务院政府工作报告:―抓好决胜全面建成小康社会三大攻坚战。要分别提出工作思路和具 体举措，排出时间表、路线图、优先序，确保风险隐患得到有效控制‖,有效控制风险已提高到 国家战略的高度。在信息技术革命和经济全球化的推动下，作为现代企业对投资项目实现有效 监督与管理的一个重要系统，企业项目投资风险评价在帮助企业达成项目战略管理目标，确保 战略管理计划得以顺利实施方面发挥着重要作用。项目投资风险评价的评价内容和结果可以对 企业投资管理决策产生深远的影响，对于企业运营与管理具有举足轻重的作用。园区型投资管 理类企业曾在我国经济发展中发挥着重要的作用，而外部环境的巨大变化促使我国的园区投资 企业亟需对企业投资项目风险评价进行变革。建立科学的风险评价系统对变革中的投资企业来 说是至关重要的。回顾国内风险评价理论的发展历程，我们看到传统的基于财务指标的风险评 价方法有很多局限性，最重要的是过于关注短期风险，缺少与企业战略相结合，无法为企业长 远发展提供决策依据。 平衡记分卡法(Balance Score card)是一套以企业战略为基础，从财务、内部营运、客户与市 场、学习与成长四个方面进行评价的战略绩效评价体系，很大程度上弥补了传统绩效评价系的 不足。本文选取地市级的园区投资开发企业作为风险评价的研究载体，通过介绍企业风险评价 相关理论以及FY公司现状简要分析其面临的内外部风险因子，运用平衡计分卡模型，主要通 过从财务、内部运营、客户与市场和学习与成长四个方面分解企业战略目标，提取关键风险指 标，绘制项目投资风险评价的逻辑地图，构建出符合地市级的园区投资开发企业特点的项目投 资风险评价体系。进而建立科学定量的项目投资风险评价体系在构建指标体系时，选择基于层 次分析法赋权的模糊综合评判的综合评价模型，对实际的园区投资开发企业FY公司近期项目 投资风险状况进行评价分析，具体运用于FY公司的配售电及分布式能源站项目投资风险判断， 进行风险评价。 通过风险评价最终重新构建FY公司项目投资风险评价的流程、关键点及影响因子，并得 出FY公司配售电及分布式能源站项目风险等级为A级，可待上级资产监督部门报批投资。风 险评价结果科学的显示了FY公司在投降项目风险评价方面的优势和不足，为企业寻求一条适 合自身内外部环境的项目投资风险控制管理提供科学依据。 关键词：风险评价，平衡计分卡，层次分析法，模糊分析法 南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 III ABSTRACT The work report of the State Council Government: "we will do a good job in winning the three major battles to build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.". It is necessary to put forward working ideas and specific measures respectively, set out timetable, road map and priority order to ensure that risks and hidden dangers are effectively controlled ", and effectively control risks has been raised to the height of national strategy. Driven by the information technology revolution and economic globalization, as an important system for modern enterprises to achieve effective supervision and management of investment projects, enterprise project investment risk assessment plays an important role in helping enterprises to achieve project strategic management objectives and ensure the smooth implementation of strategic management plans. The evaluation contents and results of the project investment risk evaluation can have a profound impact on the enterprise investment management decision-making, and play an important role in the enterprise operation and management. Park investment enterprises once played an important role in China's economic development, and the great changes in the external environment prompted the park investment enterprises in China to urgently change the risk assessment of enterprise investment projects. It is very important to establish a scientific risk evaluation system for the changing park investment enterprises. Reviewing the development of domestic risk assessment theory, we can see that the traditional risk assessment method based on financial indicators has many limitations. The most important thing is that it pays too much attention to short-term risks, lacks the combination with enterprise strategy, and cannot provide decision-making basis for the long-term development of enterprises. Balanee Seore card is a set of strategic performance evaluation system based on enterprise strategy, which is evaluated from four aspects: finance, internal operation, customer and market, learning and growth. It makes up for the shortcomings of traditional performance evaluation system to a large extent. In this paper, the city level park investment and development enterprises are selected as the research carrier of risk assessment. By introducing the relevant theories of enterprise risk assessment and the current situation of FY Company, the internal and external risk factors it faces are analyzed briefly. By using the balanced scorecard model, the strategic objectives of the enterprise are decomposed from four aspects of finance, internal operation, customer and market, and learning and growth, and the key points are extracted Risk index, draw the logic map of project investment risk evaluation, and build a project investment risk evaluation system that conforms to the characteristics FY公司项目投资风险评价研究 IV of the park investment and development enterprises at Prefecture and city level. And then establish a scientific and quantitative project investment risk evaluation system. When building the index system, choose the comprehensive evaluation model of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on the AHP empowerment to evaluate and analyze the recent project investment risk situation of FY Company, the actual park investment and development enterprise, which is specifically used in the distribution power and distributed energy station project investment risk judgment of FY Company to conduct wind Risk assessment. Through the risk assessment, the process, key points and influencing factors of FY Company's project investment risk assessment are finally rebuilt, and it is concluded that the risk level of FY Company's power distribution and distributed energy station project is A-level, which can be submitted to the State-owned Assets Supervision Department of the superior government for approval and investment. The results of risk assessment show the advantages and disadvantages of FY Company in capitulation project risk assessment, and provide scientific basis for the enterprise to seek a project investment risk control management suitable for its internal and external environment. Keywords: Risk accessment, the balanced scorecard Analytic, AHP, ambiguity analysis 南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 V 目录 第一章 绪论 .................................................................... 1 1.1选题背景 .................................................................. 1 1.1.1研究背景 ............................................................ 1 1.2研究意义 .................................................................. 1 1.3国内外研究现状 ............................................................ 2 1.3.1项目风险管理相关研究 ................................................ 2 1.3.2风险评价相关研究 .................................................... 4 1.3.3 国内外研究现状评述 .................................................. 6 1.4研究目标和内容 ............................................................ 6 1.4.1 研究目标 ........................................................... 6 1.4.2主要研究内容 ........................................................ 7 1.5研究方法和技术路线 ........................................................ 7 1.5.1 研究方法 ........................................................... 7 1.5.2 研究技术路线........................................................ 8 1.6可能的创新之处 ............................................................ 8 第二章 项目投资风险评价相关理论 ................................................. 9 2.1风险管理理论概述 .......................................................... 9 2.1.1风险的定义 .......................................................... 9 2.1.2风险管理的定义与内涵 ................................................ 9 2.1.3风险管理的目标与过程 ................................................ 9 2.2项目投资风险相关理论 ..................................................... 10 2.2.1项目投