从 2008 年的全民创业的兴起，时至今日，我国双创事业的发展已骄傲地 走过了“以推动就业为主要特征”双创黄金十年，迎来了更具战略性的“以推 动创新，提高创业水平为主要特征” 的“大众创业，万众创新”白金时代。推 动创新，提高创业水平，业已成为我国经济发展跨越中等收入陷阱，快速将我 国建设成创新型的国家，实现两个100百年奋斗目标的国家战略。以创新为核 心的大学生自主创业，对这一国家战略的实现起着重要的支撑作用。因此，研 究主张培育双创中最具创新思维、最有创业激情、最富于创新活力及创业能力 的大学生自主创业者，提升他们的创新创业水平，刻不容缓。依据权威统计， 2016年我国新登记企业合计552.8万户，而注册大学生自主创业者达到61.5万， 成为最大的新增就业群体，他们表现极为高涨的热情。但是，我国创业活动失 败率在70%以上，而受人们热议的大学生自主创业的失败率更是高达90%以上（单 标安，2013）[1]。所以，研究影响以创新为其核心的大学生自主创业成功因素具 有十分重要的理论和现实意义。 论文通过对大量相关文献的梳理、分析、研究，认为在影响大学生自主创 创业成功率的众多因素中，创业学习、创业能力及创业环境不确定性的作用显 得尤为关键。因此，论文以大学生自主创业者为研究对象，以创业能力为中介 变量，以创业环境不确定性为调节变量，构建了创业学习对创业成功的研究模 型。研究中，论文采用单环学习与双环学习两维度来测量创业学习，从机会能 力和运营能力两维度测量创业能力，从动态性和敌对性两维度测量创业环境不 确定性，从财务绩效和非财务绩效两维度测量创业成功。论文所借鉴量表具有 良好信效度，并通过访谈对问卷进行修正，以使量表适合中国大学生自主创业 者。论文运用SPSS22.0和AMOS22.0对有效问卷数据进行实证分析，得出以下 结论： （1）创业学习对创业成功有显著正向影响；（2）创业学习对创业能力有 显著正向影响；（3）创业能力对创业成功有显著正向影响；（4）创业能力在 创业学习与创业成功间起到部分中介作用；（5）创业环境不确定性在创业学习 和创业能力间具有负向调节作用，但相比单环学习，双环学习对创业能力正向 作用受创业环境不确定性的负向调节程度要小。 鉴于以上实证结果，论文为大学生自主创业者提出相关管理建议： II （1）创业者应重视双环学习，加强培养双环学习思维方式；（2）以机会 能力和运营能力为关键，全面提升创业能力；（3）辩证地看待创业环境不确定 性，综合平衡单环学习和双环学习；（4）创业者既要重视财务绩效也要关注非 财务绩效，全面性地实现创业成功。 关键词：创业学习，创业能力，创业成功，创业环境不确定性 III Abstract Since the rise of entrepreneurship for all in 2008, the development of China ’s double entrepreneurship has proudly passed the “Ten Years of Promoting Employment as the Main Feature”, and has ushered in a more strategic "People's Entrepreneurship, Innovation for Everyone" in the Platinum Age. Promoting innovation and improving the level of entrepreneurship have become a national strategy for China's economic development to cross the middle-income trap, quickly build China into an innovative country, and achieve two 100-year goals. College students with innovation as their core, starting their own businesses, play an important role in supporting the realization of this national strategy. Therefore, the research advocates cultivating independent entrepreneurs with the most innovative thinking, the most entrepreneurial passion, and the most innovative enthusiasm and entrepreneurial ability in double enterprise, and it is urgent to improve their level of innovation and entrepreneurship. According to authoritative statistics, the total number of newly registered enterprises in China in 2016 was 5.528 million, and the number of self-employed entrepreneurs of registered college students reached 615,000, becoming the largest new employment group. However, the failure rate of entrepreneurial activities in China is more than 70%, and the failure rate of self-employed undergraduates who are hotly debated is as high as more than 90% (Shan Biaoan, 2013) [1]. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the factors affecting the success of independent entrepreneurship of college students whose core is innovation. By combing, analyzing, and researching a large number of related literatures, the paper believes that the role of entrepreneurial learning, entrepreneurial ability, and the uncertainty of the entrepreneurial environment is particularly critical among the many factors that affect the success rate of college students' self-employment entrepreneurship. Therefore, the thesis builds a research model of entrepreneurial learning on entrepreneurial success by taking college students' self-employed entrepreneurs as the research object, entrepreneurial ability as an intermediate variable, and entrepreneurial environment uncertainty as a moderator. The thesis IV adopts two dimensions of single-loop learning and double-loop learning to measure entrepreneurial learning, measures entrepreneurial ability from two dimensions of opportunity ability and operational ability, measures uncertainty of entrepreneurial environment from two dimensions of dynamics and hostility, and Measuring entrepreneurial success from two dimensions of financial performance and non-financial performance. The scale used in this thesis has good reliability and validity, and the questionnaire is modified through interviews to make the scale suitable for Chinese college students' self-employed entrepreneurs. The paper uses SPSS22.0 and AMOS22.0 to conduct an empirical analysis of valid questionnaire data, and draws the following conclusions: (1) Entrepreneurial learning has a significant positive impact on entrepreneurial success; (2) Entrepreneurial learning has a significant positive impact on entrepreneurial ability; (3) Entrepreneurial ability has a significant positive impact on entrepreneurial success; (4) Entrepreneurial ability plays a part of the mediating role between entrepreneurial learning and entrepreneurial success; (5) The uncertainty of entrepreneurial environment has a negative regulating effect between entrepreneurial learning and entrepreneurial ability, but compared with single-loop learning, the positive effect of double-loop learning on entrepreneurial ability is less negatively regulated by the uncertainty of entrepreneurial environment. In view of the above empirical results, the paper proposes relevant management recommendations for college students' self-employed entrepreneurs: (1) Entrepreneurs should pay attention to double-loop learning and strengthen the cultivation of the double-loop learning thinking mode; (2) take the opportunity and operation capabilities as the key to comprehensively improve the entrepreneurial ability; (3) dialectically view the uncertainty of the entrepreneurial environment and comprehensively balance the single-loop Learning and double-loop learning; (4) Entrepreneurs should pay attention to both financial performance and non-financial performance, and comprehensively achieve entrepreneurial success. Keywords: Entrepreneurial learning, Entrepreneurial ability, Entrepreneurial success, Uncertainty of entrepreneurial environment V 目 录 摘要..............................I Abstract...........................III 第1章 绪论....................1 1.1 研究目的与意义1 1.1.1 研究背景..1 1.1.2 研究目的..2 1.1.3 研究意义..2 1.2 国内外研究现状3 1.2.1 创业学习的研究现状.............3 1.2.2 创业成功的研究现状.............5 1.2.3 创业学习与创业成功关系的研究现状................7 1.2.4 研究述评..9 1.3 研究内容与方法9 1.3.1 研究内容..9 1.3.2 研究方法10 1.3.3 技术路线11 第2章 相关概念界定与维度划分.............12 2.1大学生自主创业..............................12 2.1.1 大学生自主创业概念研究...12 2.1.2 大学生自主创业的概念界定..............................13 2.2 创业学习..........13 2.2.1 创业学习概念界定...............13 2.2.2 创业学习维度划分...............15 2.3 创业能力..........16 2.3.1 创业能力概念界定...............16 2.3.2 创业能力维度划分...............17 2.4 创业成功..........18 2.4.1 创业成功概念界定...............18 2.4.2 创业成功维度划分...............19 VI 2.5 创业环境不确定性.........................20 2.5.1 创业环境不确定性概念界定..............................20 2.5.2 创业环境不确定性维度划分..............................22 第3章 研究的理论基础与假设......