近年来，随着我国城市化进程的加快以及“退二进三”政策的实施，许多原来位 于城市中心地段的工业企业在向外搬迁的同时，遗留下大量的污染土地（也称为 “棕地”）。可以预期，未来时间里各大中型城市实施的工业企业搬迁活动将更加频 繁。这些棕地如不能及时得到修复和清洁，就会给周边社区环境及居民健康带来潜 在的风险。国际上多年的实践表明，棕地再开发不仅可以解决现存的社会、环境问 题，同时也是优化城市产业结构、提高土地利用率、维护社会公众健康的重要手段。 如何更好地推动棕地再开发进程，实现城市的可持续发展，已成为当前学术界一个 重要的研究热点。 棕地再开发是一个复杂的系统工程，其中涉及的利益相关者众多，政府需要对 这些利益相关者进行协调管理，从而实现棕地再开发的顺利实施。本文重点关注棕 地再开发过程中的利益相关者参与问题。首先通过多维细分法对这些利益相关者 进行分类，并识别出在棕地再开发过程中的起关键作用的直接利益相关者；然后将 棕地再开发过程分为土地回收阶段、土地治理阶段和土地使用阶段，借助博弈论的 方法分析各阶段中直接利益相关者的决策行为，找出影响各博弈主体决策的关键 因素，其中在棕地治理阶段存在三方利益主体的多重博弈，本文采用演化博弈分析， 借助系统动力学理论和工具，帮助判定治理阶段的关键因素如何影响三方博弈主 体决策。最终为各直接利益相关者提供建议，从而推动棕地再开发的顺利实施。 关键词，棕地再开发；利益相关者行为；博弈分析；演化博弈分析；系统动力学III ABSTRACT In recent years, with the acceleration of China’s urbanization process and the implementation of the “from the secondaryindustry to the tertiaryindustry” policy, many industrial enterprises originally located in the central part of the city have left a large amount of contaminated lands while they are moving outwards (also known as “brownfield”). It’s predictable in the future that industrial enterprises in large and medium-sized cities will be relocated more frequently. If these brownfields are not repaired and cleaned in time, they will pose potential risks to residents’ health and the surrounding community environment. The practice in the world for many years shows that brownfield regeneration can not only solve existing social and environmental problems, but also be an important means to optimize urban industrial structure, improve land utilization, and maintain public health. How to better promote the brownfield regeneration process to achieve the sustainable development of the city has become an important research hotspot in the current academic circles. Brownfield regeneration is a complex system engineering involving a large number of stakeholders. The government needs to coordinate and manage these stakeholders to achieve the smooth implementation of brownfield regeneration. This article focuses on stakeholder engagement in the brownfield regeneration process. Firstly, these stakeholders are classified by multi-dimensional subdivision method, and the direct stakeholders who play a key role in the redevelopment of brownfield are identified. Secondly, the brownfield regeneration process is divided into three stages: land recovery stage, land management and land use stage. Then, use game theory to analyze the decision-makingbehaviorofdirect stakeholdersin eachstage,andfind outthekeyfactors affecting the decision-making of each game subject.Among them, for the multiple games of the three-party stakeholders in the brownfield governance stage, this paper uses evolutionary game analysis and system dynamics theory to analyze how the key factors in the governance stage affect the decision-making of the three-party game. Ultimately, recommendations are provided to direct stakeholders to facilitate the smooth implementation of brownfield redevelopment. KEYWORDS: Brownfield Regeneration; Stakeholders Behavior; Game Analysis; Evolutionary GameAnalysis; System DynamicsIV 目 录 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ................................................................................................... 1 1.2 国内外研究进展评述 ........................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 棕地认知研究.................................................................................................. 2 1.2.2 修复技术研究.................................................................................................. 3 1.2.3 环境风险评估研究.......................................................................................... 3 1.2.4 可持续发展研究.............................................................................................. 3 1.2.5 利益相关者参与研究...................................................................................... 5 1.3 研究内容与方法 ................................................................................................... 6 1.3.1 研究内容......................................................................................................... 6 1.3.2 研究方法......................................................................................................... 8 1.4 创新点 ................................................................................................................... 8 1.5 本章小结 ............................................................................................................... 8 第二章 基本概念及相关理论........................................................................................ 9 2.1 棕地 ....................................................................................................................... 9 2.1.1 棕地的概念..................................................................................................... 9 2.1.2 棕地的分类..................................................................................................... 9 2.2 利益相关者理论 ................................................................................................. 10 2.3 博弈论 ................................................................................................................. 10 2.4 系统动力学 ......................................................................................................... 11 2.4.1 系统............................................................................................................... 12 2.4.2 因果回路图与流图....................................................................................... 12 2.4.3 可行性分析................................................................................................... 13 2.5 本章小结 ............................................................................................................. 14 第三章 棕地再开发中利益相关者的识别与分类...................................................... 16 3.1 利益相关者的识别 ............................................................................................. 16 3.2 利益相关者的分类 ............................................................................................. 16 3.2.1 利益相关者的初步分类............................................................................... 16 3.2.2 利益相关者类型的二次划分....................................................................... 20V 3.3 利益相关者关系分析 ......................................................................................... 21 3.4 本章小结 ............................................................................................................. 22 第四章 棕地再开发过程中利益相关者决策行为分析.............................................. 23 4.1 土地回收阶段的决策行为分析 ......................................................................... 23 4.2 土地治理阶段的决策行为分析 ......................................................................... 24 4.2.1 三方主体定性分析....................................................................................... 24 4.2.2 三方主体定量分析....................................................................................... 26 4.2.3 三方主体演化博弈分析............................................................................... 31 4.3 土地使用阶段的决策行为分析 ......................................................................... 35 4.4 本章小结 ............................................................................................................. 36 第五章 基于系统动力学的利益相关者决策行为分析.............................................. 37 5.1 三方主体系统动力学模型构建 ......................................................................... 37 5.2 三方主体决策行为仿真分析 ............................................................................. 39 5.2.1 管理者提供的优惠政策力度大小对博弈主体决策的影响....................... 40 5.2.2 公众积极参与的附加价值对博弈主体决策的影响................................... 42 5.2.3 开发商在其他项目的净收益对博弈主体决策的影响............................... 43 5.2.4 设计者中间协调促进价值对博弈主体决策的影响................................... 45 5.2.5 宣传者的宣传教育对博弈主体决策的影响............................................... 46 5.3 本章小结 ............................................................................................................. 48 第六章 结语.................................................................................................................. 49 6.1 研究结论 ............................................................................................................. 49 6.2 对策建议 ............................................................................................................. 49 6.2.1 从管理者角度出发的建议........................................................................... 50 6.2.2 从污染企业角度出发的建议....................................................................... 51 6.2.3 从开发商角度出发的建议........................................................................... 52 6.2.4 从公众角度出发的建议............................................................................... 52 6.3 研究的不足与展望 ............................................................................................. 53