I 摘要 随着唐山市居民与工业用电的快速发展，传统的供用电模式已不能满足城市 的发展需求。如何缓解目前社会供电紧缺局面，提升终端电能利用效果，降低在 用电高峰时段用户对电能的消费，以提高电网负荷率、供电可靠性，使电网得以 经济性运行，并延缓新增的发电装机容量，是唐山供电公司面临的亟待解决的问 题。 目前，供电企业仅在工业用户侧推行峰谷电价并且仍主要采用拉闸限电的措 施进行错峰、避峰，虽然取得了一定的移峰填谷效果，但电网负荷率的提升还存 在较大空间，电力需求侧管理仍停留在浅层次阶段。 分时电价是需求侧管理的核心，是供电公司向用户实施的一种经济手段，引 导用户调整用电结构和方式。本文通过对需求侧管理中分时电价策略的研究，深 入分析探讨了在唐山市目前用电供需矛盾突出的情况下，采取在居民侧实施分时 电价的方法，对提高电网负荷率、电网移峰填谷所产生的实际效果。目前唐山市 按照河北省居民侧分时电价政策，已经开始在居民侧自愿实施分时电价，但仍然 存在一些问题，一是分时电价时段和价差的划分不合理，移峰填谷效果不好；二 是分时电价实施效果滞后，电网企业面临诸多风险。 本文对影响分时电价制定的因素、分时电价在电网经营中的风险、分时电价 制定的重要原则等问题进行了探讨，研究唐山市居民侧实施分时电价的执行模 式，实际测算了唐山市居民侧执行峰谷电价对用户支出和对供电企业效益的影 响。结果表明，在唐山居民侧实施分时电价政策，未促进居民用电量的大幅增长， 电网企业售电收益变化不明显。 关键词，电力需求侧管理；分时电价管理；移峰填谷ABSTRACT I Abstract With the rapid development of tangshan residential and industrial power, the traditional power supply mode can not accommodate with the rapid development of electric. It worth to reflect on how to ease the critical electricity supply,exploring the method of improving the efficiency of electric and decreasing the power consumption in the peak-load time. In Tangshan, Time-of-use price of electricity just used in industry, and brownouts happen frequently. The power demand side management is on junior level. TOU (Time-of-use) power price is one of the effective measures in DSM (Demand Side Management).Through exerting the effect of price lever，power consumers will change their power consuming mode so as to be beneficial to flat the load curve. This paper study on the strategy of TOU price of electricity in Tangshan, measure the user spending and power grid corporate earnings ， analyses the formulation principles and operational risk of the strategy.nowadays，the TOU price has been used in Tangshan,however there are still some problems.First,the peak and valley periods division lack of a scientific basis,the function of load shifting is not too obvious;Second,the effect of TOU price policy has lagged far behind,there are many risks of the grid corporation.It turns out that the strategy has not increased residential electricity consumption,and the effect of valley filling is not comparatively obvious. Key words: power demand side management; classification differentiated price of electricity; shift peak load目录 I 目录 摘要................................................................................................................................ I ABSTRACT................................................................................................................... I 第 1 章 绪论..................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景..........................................................................................................1 1.2 需求侧管理 DSM 国内外研究现状..................................................................2 1.2.1 需求侧管理 DSM 国外研究及应用现状............................................2 1.2.2 需求侧管理 DSM 国内研究及应用现状............................................3 1.3 研究目标及主要研究内容..............................................................................5 第 2 章 居民分时电价的研究基础..............................................................................7 2.1 唐山市居民用电特点分析..............................................................................7 2.1.1 居民用电负荷特征趋势........................................................................7 2.1.2 居民空调及电能替代项目用电增幅加速............................................9 2.2 在居民侧实行分时电价的必要性..................................................................9 2.3 影响分时电价制定的因素............................................................................10 2.4 分时电价在实践中存在的问题....................................................................10 2.4.1 分时电价效果的滞后性......................................................................10 2.4.2 用户反应过激......................................................................................10 2.4.3 发、供电企业间利益分配不均..........................................................11 2.4.4 分时电价缺乏灵活性..........................................................................11 2.4.5 分时电价价差幅度不够......................................................................11 2.4.6 推行范围有待扩大..............................................................................11 2.5 分时电价在电网公司经营的风险................................................................11 2.5.1 购电成本不确定性导致的经营风险..................................................12 2.5.2 峰谷漂移或倒置导致的经营风险......................................................12 2.5.3 合同电量比重过大导致的经营风险..................................................12 2.6 制定分时电价的重要原则............................................................................13 2.6.1 分时电价体系的总体目标..................................................................13 2.6.2 分时电价各时段的划分原则..............................................................13 2.6.3 分时电价价格拉开比确定原则..........................................................13 2.6.4 确定合理的用户响应曲线..................................................................16 2.7 本章小结........................................................................................................17 第 3 章 分时电价的数学模型....................................................................................18目录 II 3.1 分时电价的数学模型....................................................................................18 3.1.1 电网企业成本......................................................................................18 3.1.2 用户电费支出......................................................................................19 3.1.3 约束条件..............................................................................................19 3.2 用户反映度模型............................................................................................20 3.3 模型算法........................................................................................................22 3.4 本章小结........................................................................................................22 第 4 章 唐山市居民分时电价实施与效果测算........................................................23 4.1 居民分时电价执行情况调查分析................................................................23 4.2 居民谷时段用电倾向测算............................................................................35 4.3 居民用电电费及供电公司效益变化............................................................37 4.4 分时电价政策分析........................................................................................40 4.5 本章小结........................................................................................................40 第 5 章 结论与展望....................................................................................................42