为提高投资决策的科学性,可行性研究已成为一项不可或缺的重要 工作随着国家西部大开发重点项目/西气东输0工程的建设和川东北 普光气田的发现,全国各地加快了天然气开发利用进程大力推广使用 天然气将是我国的大势所趋 内蒙古自治区西部地区尚属天然气利用空白区,应充分利用自治区 紧邻气田得天独厚的地缘区位优势,全面推进内蒙古西部地区天然气的 开发利用,这对于合理配置资源,繁荣相关产业,加快自治区经济的发 展,促进对外开放,保持社会稳定,改善投资环境,提高人民生活质量 都具有重大意义对于内蒙古西部天然气股份有限公司来说,开发建设 长乌临输气管道工程能否提升企业的经济效益,成为一个新的利润增长 点是个有必要进行论证的问题 本文对长乌临输气管道项目进行了可行性研究,采用定量分析与定 性分析结合!动态分析与静态分析结合的方法,对项目有关的社会!经 济!技术等方面的情况进行深入细致的调查,对项目的市场可行性!技 术方案和建设方案!投资估算和资金筹措!成本费用估算!销售收入和 税金估算等进行了认真研究和比较论证在此基础上编制了项目基本财 务报表,并对投资回收期!净现值!财务内部收益率等相关财务指标进 行了分析,做出了财务评价为提高项目经济评价的可靠性和决策的科 学性,本文还采用了盈亏平衡分析法和敏感性分析法对项目的不确定性 和风险性进行了探讨得出项目可行的结论,为项目投资决策提供了可 靠依据 关键词:长乌临输气管道,可行性,市场预测,财务评价 iii Feasibility Study of ChangWulin Gas Pipeline Project Jiang Ai-li(Project Management) Directed by Professor Sun Rui-hua Abstract Feasibility study is very important for investment strategy. The engineering construction of Gas Transmission Pipeline From West to Eastern China and the exploration and development of Puguang Gas field in North-east of Sichuan Province enhance the natural gas development and utilization in the whole country, that is the trend of industry development in China. Neimenggu Municipality, with no history of natural gas utilization and near the gas field of large scale, shall boost the local natural gas development and utilization. This is very important for the reasonable distribution of local nature source, prosperity of local relevant industries, opening and economy development of the Municipality as well as local society stability, improvement of investment environment and local people.s life. Therefore, it is a question to Neimenggu West Natural Gas Co., Ltd. ,that is to increase the economic benefit and find new profit source by construction of ChangWuLin gas pipeline. This article gives the feasibility study of the project of Changqing-Wuhai-Linhe gas Transmission pipeline with combination of ratio and nature analysis, static and dynamic analysis, on the basis of investigation and collection of associated social, economic and technical situation in addition to the study, comparison and demonstration to the potential market, technical proposal, construction proposal, investment estimate, capital raise, cost estimate, future income, taxation estimate. Then, we prepare financial statements of this project, anlyse the payback period, net present value, and iv internal rate of return, and at last make the financial evaluation. In order to improve the reliability of financial value and the scientific literature of decision, this article has researched the uncertainty and risk of the project by the Break-Even Point analysis and sensitivity analysis. At last, we get the feasible of conclusion, and provides reliable basis for investment decision. Key words:ChangWuLin gas pipeline,Feasibility,Market forecast, Financial evaluation v 目 录 独 创 性 声 明...............................................i 摘要.......................................................ii Abstract...................................................iii 第1章 前言..................................................1 1.1 选题背景和研究意义 ...................................1 1.1.1 选题背景........................................1 1.1.2 研究意义........................................1 1.2 研究的思路和方法 .....................................2 1.2.1 研究思路........................................2 1.2.2 研究方法........................................3 1.3 本文的创新之处 .......................................3 第2章 项目可行性研究相关理论认识............................4 2.1 可行性研究的发展与内涵 ...............................4 2.1.1 可行性研究的发展历程............................4 2.1.2 可行性研究的内涵................................5 2.2 可行性研究的作用 .....................................5 2.3 可行性研究的程序 .....................................6 2.4 可行性研究的内容 .....................................7 2.5 本章小结 .............................................9 第3章 长乌临输气管道项目市场分析与方案设计.................10 3.1 项目概述 ............................................10 3.1.1 项目提出的背景.................................10 3.1.2 项目建设的意义.................................11 3.1.3 项目建设的规模和范围...........................11 3.1.4 项目建设的基本要求.............................12 3.2 市场分析 ............................................13 vi 3.2.1 沿线主要城市概况...............................13 3.2.2 市场预测分析...................................17 3.2.3 长乌临输气管道的规模确定 .......................24 3.2.4 市场风险分析 ...................................24 3.3 建设方案 ............................................25 3.3.1 建设条件.......................................25 3.3.2 输气线路 .......................................27 3.3.3 输气工艺.......................................28 3.3.4 辅助工程和公用工程.............................31 3.4 节能与环境保护 ......................................35 3.4.1 节能...........................................35 3.4.2 环境保护.......................................35 3.5 劳动安全卫生 ........................................38 3.5.1 职业危害分析...................................38 3.5.2 职业危害防护...................................38 3.6 组织管理机构和定员 ..................................40 3.6.1 组织管理机构...................................40 3.6.2 定员...........................................41 3.6.3 项目实施进度安排...............................41 3.7 投资估算及资金筹措 ..................................41 3.7.1 固定资产投资估算...............................42 3.7.2 流动资金估算...................................42 3.7.3 投资估算结果...................................42 3.7.4 资金筹措.......................................43 3.8 本章小结 ............................................43 第4章 评价原则与指标体系的建立.............................44 4.1 项目评价原则 ........................................44 4.1.1 一般评价原则...................................44 vii 4.1.2 特殊评价原则...................................44 4.2 指标体系的建立 ......................................45 4.2.1 评价指标概述...................................45 4.2.2 长乌临输气管道工程项目评价指标建立.............45 4.2.3 经济评价指标体系...............................46 4.3 本章小结 ............................................52 第5章 长乌临输气管道项目可行性分析.........................53 5.1 社会评价 ............................................53 5.2 财务评价 ............................................53 5.2.1 评价依据.......................................53 5.2.2 财务评价方法...................................53 5.2.3 评价范围及基础数据.............................53 5.2.4 主要数据及参数.................................54 5.2.5 财务盈利能力分析...............................55 5.2.6 清偿能力分析...................................56 5.2.7 不确定性分析...................................56 5.3 项目综合评价分析 ....................................58 5.3.1 主要评价指标...................................58 5.3.2 综合评价结论...................................60 5.3.3 经济评价表格 ...................................60 5.4 本章小结 ............................................60 第6章 结论.................................................61