中国大陆房地产市场由于城市化趋势影响，经过了近二十年的高速发展，特别是 住宅产业更是高歌猛进，但是近五年，受到中国国家宏观调控政策及市场供求关系的 影响，房地产住宅市场的发生了巨大变化，整个房地产住宅市场发展速度变慢，房地 产行业告别暴利时代，房地产市场开始加速调整。商业地产以能提供稳定的现金流和 增加固定资产投资开始得到迅速发展，但商业地产项目项目往往投资金额很大、周期 也很长、不确定因素多，因此为了规避风险，保证项目投资回报，商业地产项目往往 需要对政策进行研究、对营销进行提前策划，并进行细致的财务测算，一个好的商业 计划书对于一个大的商业地产项目来说至关重要。 HOPSON 公司计划在广州天河东开发骏景商业城地产项目，为了更好的保证项目 的投资回报，需要一份完善的商业计划书。本就是一份针对骏景商业城地产项目 的商业计划书，通过系统的理论分析、环境分析、营销策划、财务分析及风险分 析来给项目的决策提供参考意见。 本文首先阐述了研究的背景与意义，然后介绍了研究内容及框架。接着 对项目的开发公司 HOPSON 公司进行了概述，接着介绍了项目的基本情况包括项 目的地理位置、市政配套、项目的基础数据。然后深入分析项目的投资环境，首先分 析了项目所在区域特征，接着分析了所在区域的发展战略及对本项目的影响，然后分 析了广州的主要商圈，并对项目所在区域的商业进行了细致分析，并对项目存在的典 型竞争对手，在此基础上对项目进行了 SWOT 分析，同时对竞争对手进行了介绍，最 后对本项目进行了 SWOT 分析。 在环境分析的基础上，项目对潜在消费者进行了调 查，分析了消费者的消费习惯，然后阐述了项目的定位及实施进度，并从产品、价 格、渠道、促销几个方面介绍了项目的营销策略。最后对项目进行了财务及风险分 析。 关键词，房地产；商业计划书；市场定位；财务分析II Abstract China's main control means for the residential real estate project market have slowed down its pace of development. Commercial real estate is the characteristic form of real estate which comprehensively integrates the real estate industry with commerce. It has quietly become the new favorite of the real estate market. More and more people as well as larger and larger investments are involved in commercial real estate projects. For a commercial real estate project, its investment is large, its cycle is long, and there are many uncertain factors. Therefore, a good planning for a commercial real estate project is not only the requirement of the management but also the need for future business management and risk prevention. Whether a commercial real estate project is worth investing shall be determined only after adequate policy research, scientific market survey and fine financial estimates have been conducted. This business plan studies the Real Estate Project of Junjing Commercial Center of HOPSON Company in East Tianhe, Guangzhou. The content of the paper is the business plan of the Real Estate Project of Junjing Commercial Center of HOPSON Company in East Tianhe, Guangzhou. This business plan includes the theoretical analysis, the introduction of the developer and the project, as well as the market positioning and marketing strategy, financial analysis and risk analysis of the project. These systematic analyses provide references for the Company's decision-making. This paper first systematically introduces the policy background and market environment of current real estate market as well as the significance of conducting the feasibility study on the real estate project in the background of strengthening regulation by the government and fierce competition in the market. With respect to the introduction of the basic situation of the developer and the project, first of all, it introduces the buildings successfully developed by the Company and the basic situation of the Company such as corporate culture; next, it introduces the personnel status and organizational structure of the project; finally, it summarizes the basic situation of the project from the location, supporting municipal facilities and technical economic index of the project. With respect to in-depth analysis on the investment environment of the project, first all of all, it analyzes the macro environment of the real estate project from the three aspects of politics, economy and society; next, it analyzes the commercial real estate market environment of Guangzhou and the area where the project is located and it also introduces the competitors; finally, it conducts SWOT on the project. With respect to the market positioning and development progress of the project, first of all, itIII analyzes the potential customers; next, it analyzes the target market of the project based on the market survey questionnaire. Then, it introduces the market positioning of the project and elaborated the marketing strategy of the project. Finally, it conducts financial analysis and risk analysis. Key words，Real Estate Project;Business plan；Market positioning； Financial analysisIV 目 录 摘要.I ABSTRACT II 目 录....IV 图表清单...VII 第一章 绪论....1 1.1 研究背景与意义.. 1 1.2 研究内容及框架.. 2 第二章 项目概述..4 2.1 项目背景.. 4 2.1.1 项目概述. 4 2.1.2 地理区位. 4 2.1.3 项目市政配套 5 2.1.4 开发商情况介绍. 6 2.2 项目经济数据 6 2.3 项目实施进度 7 2.4 本章小结 .. 8 第三章 项目投资环境分析....9 3.1 项目所在区域特征.... 9 3.2 项目所在区域发展战略 10 3.3 项目所在区域商业发展 14 3.4 广州市主要商圈分析.... 16 3.5 项目典型竞争对手分析 20 3.6 本章小结 24 第四章 项目市场定位及 SWOT 分析...25 4.1 项目潜在消费者分析.... 25 4.1.1 调研方案介绍... 25 4.1.2 潜在消费者基本特征... 25 4.1.3 潜在消费者消费习惯与特征分析. 28V 4.1.4 调查结论..... 37 4.2 知名零售商调查 37 4.3 项目市场定位.... 39 4.4 SWOT 分析 .. 40 4.4.1 优势. 40 4.4.2 劣势. 41 4.4.3 机会. 41 4.4.4 威胁. 41 4.5 本章小结 42 第五章 项目营销策略....44 5.1 产品策略 44 5.2 价格策略 48 5.3 渠道策略 50 5.4 促销策略 51 5.5 本章小结 51 第六章 项目财务及风险分析....52 6.1 项目投资估算及筹资估算.. 52 6.1.1 项目投资估算... 52 6.1.2 项目筹资方案... 52 6.2 项目效益分析.... 53 6.2.1 项目销售收入预测. 53 6.2.2 项目利润估算... 54 6.2.3 现金流表..... 55 6.3 项目财务分析.... 55 6.3.1 内部收益率. 55 6.3.2 敏感性分析. 56 6.4 项目风险分析及对策.... 57 6.4.1 政策风险..... 57 6.4.2 市场风险..... 57VI 6.4.3 管理风险..... 57 6.5 本章小结 58 结 论....59