随着国内经济增长速度的减缓，经济增长模式的逐渐转变，将促使项目建设 者更加重视项目建设前期的可行性研究。可行性研究是指以系统的分析方法对拟 建设项目进行分析，从而起到降低投资风险、提高投资收益率的目的。 随着环境压力的增大、能源的日益枯竭，传统的消费模式必将受到冲击，以 消耗汽柴油为主的摩托车、小汽车、客车消费模式也在受到冲击的行列中。其中 以锂离子动力电池为代表的新能源行业，由于其改变了原有的能源消费模式，受 到国家政府的大力扶持。 本报告以圆柱锂离子动力电池项目建设为背景，进行了相应的可行性研究。 按照可行性研究的基本模式对其市场、产品类型、技术路线、竞争能力、经济财 务能力、不确定性以及风险等方面进行了分析。在市场分析中采用了时间序列分 析模型，分析了其销量受季节的影响情况。在产品路线上通过层次分析法，找出 了最佳产品类型。在工程建设上，采用工程网络图分析了其关键路线。通过五力 模型分析了项目的竞争能力。最后对其经济财务能力、不确定性以及风险进行了 评价。通过对一些分析工具和分析方法进行了相应的简化，从而提高了其在项目 可行性研究分析中的实用性。通过可行性研究方法除了可判断项目是否可行外， 在项目实行过程中起到了优化项目投资结构、控制项目工期、提高项目收益率、 降低项目风险的目的。 关键词，锂离子电池；可行性研究；五力模型；经济评价ABSTRACT With slowing in the rate of growth of the domestic economy and the transformation of the mode of economic growth, these phenomenon will lead to the project investors pay more attention to the prior to the construction of the project feasibility study. Feasibility study is refers to utilization of systematic analysis method to evaluate the proposed construction projects, so as to reduce the investment risk, improve the rate of return on investment. With the increasing pressure on the environment pollution and energy depletion, the traditional consumption patterns have been gradually impacted. Motorcycles and cars, based on the consumption of gasoline and diesel, their consumption models also had different degrees of impact. However, the lithium ion power battery, as the representative of the new energy industry, it changed the traditional mode of consumption. Therefore, it received national government's vigorously support. This paper is based on the project of cylindrical lithium ion power battery, and the corresponding feasibility study analysis is also conducted. According to the basic pattern of feasibility study, the market, product type, technical route, competition ability, financial ability, uncertainty and risk aspects are all evaluated. The time series analysis model was used in the market analysis to investigate the influence of seasons to the sales. To the type of the products, the analytic hierarchy process was applied to find the best one. In engineering construction, the project network diagram analyzed its key route. Project competition ability is investigated through five forces model. Finally, we evaluated its economic and financial ability, uncertainty and risk. As the simplification of some of the analytical tools and methods, its utilization in the feasibility study of the project was enhanced. The feasibility study not only helps us determine whether the project is feasible or not, but also optimizes the project investment structure, controls project period, improves project profitability, reduces the risk of the project during the project implementation process. KEY WORDS: Lithium-ion battery; Feasibility study; Five forces model; Economic evaluation目 录 第一章 绪论....................................................................................................................................1 1.1 可行性研究概述...................................................................................................................1 1.1.1 可行性研究与投资决策关系.........................................................................................1 1.1.2 可行性研究作用 ............................................................................................................1 1.1.3 可行性研究工作程序.....................................................................................................2 1.2 国内外可行性研究现状 .......................................................................................................2 1.2.1 国外可行性研究研究进展.............................................................................................2 1.2.2 国内可行性研究研究进展.............................................................................................3 1.2.3 国内可行性研究应用现状.............................................................................................4 1.3 可行性研究在锂电行业中发展现状....................................................................................5 1.3.1 锂电行业可行性研究现状.............................................................................................5 1.3.2 锂电行业可行性研究基本框架.....................................................................................6 1.4 本报告主要研究内容 ...........................................................................................................7 第二章 圆柱锂离子电池项目建设基本条件.................................................................................8 2.1 锂电行业发展现状 ...............................................................................................................8 2.2 项目建设背景.....................................................................................................................10 2.2.1 投资项目概况 ..............................................................................................................10 2.2.2 市场分析......................................................................................................................10 2.2.3 产品优选及设计 ..........................................................................................................14 2.2.4 技术路线......................................................................................................................19 2.2.5 项目实施计划 ..............................................................................................................21 2.2.6 组织结构及人力资源配置...........................................................................................22 2.3 社会环境评价.....................................................................................................................24 2.3.1 社会评价......................................................................................................................24 2.3.2 环境评价......................................................................................................................24 第三章 圆柱锂离子电池项目建设五力模型分析.......................................................................26 3.1 供应商的讨价还价能力 .....................................................................................................27 3.2 客户价格谈判能力 .............................................................................................................28 3.3 替代品的替代能力 .............................................................................................................29 3.4 潜在竞争者进入能力 .........................................................................................................31 3.5 现有竞争者竞争能力 .........................................................................................................32 3.6 竞争情况总结.....................................................................................................................34 第四章 圆柱锂离子电池项目经济风险评价分析.......................................................................35 4.1 项目财务分析与评价 ..........................................................................................................35 4.1.1 投资估算......................................................................................................................35 4.1.2 资金筹措..............................................................................................