经过改革开放后四十年来的快速发展，我国饮料机械市场在过去十年保持平 均每年 15%-30%的增长。由此而来的外商投资在国内如雨后春笋，带动了相关 产业的进一步发展。在大型设备销售竞争白热化过程中，除设备本身质量外，与 设备使用相配套的备件供应时间、价格、服务水平已经成为决定饮料机械公司竞 争力、利润空间的关键因素。而在零备件供应体系中，建立健全完善的备件库存 管理体系对公司未来的发展具有重要意义。 本文以 S 饮料机械公司为例，先从外部宏观角度分析了该行业近年发展特点， 再借用波特五力模型从中观角度分析 S 公司所处外部环境。接着转变视角，从内 部入手，纵向上分析其历史沿革、组织架构变动、财务变化趋势。从第 4 章开始， 本文用了大量篇幅描述 S 公司备件库存管理现状，分析现存问题和形成问题的原 因，并借用第 2 章理论工具提出优化解决方案。优化方案涉及 S 公司备件库存结 构，备件需求预测，库存控制目标，库存模型和策略选择，备件目标交付率设定 和安全库存计算等内容。最后转换到实施层面，既有“自上而下”的推动变革又 有“自下而上”的平稳实施，并从人员、组织和财务上三重保障。 本文为行业的库存管理理论提供实践参考。并同时检验库存管理理论的普 遍性。 关键字，备件库存管理；多级库存管理；需求预测；库存策略；目标交付率III Abstract China economics experiences high growth in the past forty years since Chinese opening-up and reform from 1978. The Beverage machinery industry keep 15%-30% increasing in past 10 years, which there are plenty of investment from oversea entering in this industry. Resulting from this, the competition heated up not only in the price, quality and lead time of machine, but also of the spare parts. The service level of supply chain on spare parts has become the key factor of competitiveness of beverage machine manufacturing company and its new profit point. Concerning the service of spare parts, a stable and effective spare parts inventory management system is significate to this beverage machine manufacturing company. In this paper, the S beverage machine manufacturing company is researched as an example. First, I recognize its external risks by five forces model. Second, I analyze the internal environment of S company from the perspective of history, organization, and its finance performance. Third, I focus on the current status of inventory management of Spare Parts, its problems and root causes analysis. Based on these, I propose the optimization plan, from perspective of Inventory structure, demand forecasting, inventory strategy and safety stock calculation. Finally, it’s implementation step by step with support from labor, organization and finance. This paper provides practical reference for the theory of inventory management in the industry. And at the same time it also a prove to check the universality of inventory management theory. Key words: Inventory Management; Multistage inventory management; Demand Forecasting; Inventory Strategy; Target Delivery Rate目录 致谢............................................................................................................................ I 摘要...........................................................................................................................II Abstract....................................................................................................................III 第 1 章 绪论..............................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景和研究意义.................................................................................1 1.1.1 选题背景..............................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义..............................................................................................2 1.2 国内外研究现状评述.................................................................................3 1.2.1 研究现状..............................................................................................3 1.2.2 评述......................................................................................................6 1.3 研究内容和框架.........................................................................................6 1.3.1 研究内容..............................................................................................6 1.3.2 论文框架..............................................................................................7 1.4 研究方法与创新点.....................................................................................8 1.4.1 研究方法..............................................................................................8 1.4.2 论文创新点..........................................................................................8 第 2 章 理论基础....................................................................................................10 2.1 库存架构理论...........................................................................................10 2.1.1 多级备件库存管理............................................................................10 2.1.2 集中库存............................................................................................10 2.1.3 谷仓效应............................................................................................11 2.2 需求预测理论...........................................................................................12 2.2.1 需求预测............................................................................................12 2.2.2 需求预测的分类................................................................................122.2.3 需求预测的步骤................................................................................13 2.3 库存管理理论...........................................................................................13 2.3.1 库存控制............................................................................................14 2.3.2 库存控制目标....................................................................................14 2.3.3 库存控制模型....................................................................................15 第 3 章 S 公司经营环境分析................................................................................16 3.1 S 公司外部环境分析................................................................................16 3.1.1 行业宏观特点分析............................................................................16 3.1.2 行业环境的波特五力模型分析........................................................17 3.2 S 公司内部环境分析................................................................................19 3.2.1 S 公司的概况及发展.........................................................................19 3.2.2 S 公司的组织架构变动.....................................................................20 3.2.3 S 企业财务状况变化.........................................................................21 第 4 章 S 公司售后备件库存管理现状及存在的问题........................................22 4.1 S 公司售后备件库存管理现状................................................................22 4.1.1 S 公司售后库存管理全球架构.........................................................22 4.1.2 S 公司中国售后备件库存管理状况.................................................22 4.1.3 S 公司中国区域售后备件库存需求特点.........................................23 4.1.4 S 公司中国区域售后备件库存供应特点.........................................25 4.2 S 公司售后备件库存管理存在的问题................................................25 4.2.1 两级仓库系统中平级间联动不足....................................................26 4.2.2 备件客户需求预测管理不善............................................................27 4.2.3 备件库存管理分类方法不合理........................................................27 4.2.4 备件库存控制落后............................................................................28 4.3 S 公司售后备件库存管理问题的原因分析............................................30 第 5 章 S 公司售后备件库存管理优化方案.....................................................