产业创新和科学技术的高速发展带动了经济发展模式的转变，也为电子制造 业带来了巨大的经济效益，但是也导致资源的浪费和短缺以及环境污染的加剧。 为此，国家要求他们生产企业回收处理生产的产品，全面管理产品的逆向流动。 由于企业对产品进行回收、处理、循环使用和再投入市场时涉及了多主体、多环 节等情况，而逆向物流通过这些主体、环节以及活动组成了链状的网络结构，进 而形成了逆向供应链。逆向供应链是实施可持续发展战略的重要途径和实现方 式，所以研究逆向供应链对供应链的发展以及生态环境保护具有重要的意义。 本文以电子产品为例，选取逆向供应链中的消费者、回收商、制造商作为研 究主体，首先采用结构方程模型完成逆向供应链多主体行为对回收体系构建的实 证分析，实证结果表明，逆向供应链多主体行为进行回收活动时，回收价格是影 响逆向供应链回收体系构建的关键因素。然后在实证结果的基础上，选取电子产 品中的手机作为研究对象，运用机器学习算法进一步对电子产品的回收价格进行 测定，结论表明，GBDT模型可以很好的预测电子产品的回收价格，而且回收产品 的原购买价格对回收价格的影响最大。 综上所述，本文从逆向供应链多主体行为的角度，探讨电子产品回收体系构 建及其价格测定，最后为电子产品回收体系构建提供了一定的建议。研究的内容 为电子产品回收体系的构建及完善提供了一定的依据，引导回收商和制造商走向 规范化道路，同时也为其他领域的回收体系构建提供了必要的参考性意见。 关键词，逆向供应链；电子产品回收；多主体行为；结构方程； 机器学习；回收体系iii ABSTRACT The rapid development of industrial innovation and science and technology has driven the transformation of the economic development model and brought huge economic benefits to the electronics manufacturing industry, but it also led to waste of resources and shortages and increased environmental pollution.Therefore,the state requires them to produce and recycle products produced by enterprises,and comprehensively manage the reverse flow of products.Since the enterprise recycles, processes, recycles and re-enters the product, it involves multiple subjects and multiple links. Reverse logistics forms a chain network structure through these subjects, links and activities, thus forming a reverse supply chain.Reverse supply chain is an important way to implement sustainable development strategy, so it is of great significance to study reverse supply chain for supply chain development and ecological environment protection. Taking electronic products as an example, this paper selects the consumers, recyclers and manufacturers in the reverse supply chain as the research subject. Firstly, the structural equation model is used to complete the empirical analysis of the multi-agent behavior of the reverse supply chain on the construction of the recovery system. The empirical results show that: When the supply chain multi-agent behavior is used for recycling activities, the recycling price is a key factor affecting the construction of the reverse supply chain recycling system. Then based on the empirical results, the mobile phone in the electronic product is selected as the research object, and the machine learning algorithm is used to further determine the recovery price of the electronic product. The conclusion is that the GBDT model can predict the recovery price of the electronic product well and recycle. The original purchase price of the product has the greatest impact on the recycling price. In summary, this paper discusses the construction of electronic product recycling system and its price measurement from the perspective of multi-agent behavior in reverse supply chain, and finally provides some suggestions for the construction of electronic product recycling system. The content of the research provides a basis for the construction and improvement of the electronic product recycling system, guiding the recyclers and manufacturers to the standardization road, and also provides the necessary reference for the construction of recycling systems in other fields. Key Words: Reverse Supply Chain, Electronic Product Recycling, Multi-agent Behavior, Structural Equation, Machine Learning, Recycling Systemiv 目 录 独创性声明....i 关于论文使用授权的说明.i 中 文 摘要..ii ABSTRACT..iii 1 绪论........1 1.1 研究背景和研究意义........1 1.1.1 研究背景....1 1.1.2 研究意义....1 1.2 国内外研究现状...2 1.2.1 国外研究现状2 1.2.2 国内研究现状5 1.2.3 国内外文献研究述评...8 1.3 研究内容与方法..10 1.3.1 研究内容 ...10 1.3.2 研究方法 ...11 1.4 创新点.12 1.5 本章小结........13 2 研究相关理论和方法 ..14 2.1 研究相关理论....14 2.1.1 供应链理论.14 2.1.2 逆向供应链理论......16 2.1.3 组织行为学理论......18 2.2 研究方法........19 2.2.1 结构方程模型........19 2.2.2 机器学习算法........22 2.3 本章小结........23 3 逆向供应链多主体行为对回收体系构建研究 24 3.1 测量指标体系构建24 3.1.1 模型研究假设........24 3.1.2 理论模型构建........25 3.1.3 测量指标选取........26 3.2 样本数据分析....28 3.2.1 调查问卷设计........28 3.2.2 样本数据来源........30 3.2.3 数据描述分析........30 3.2.4 探索性因素分析 ......32 3.2.5 信度分析 ...35 3.2.6 验证性因素分析 ......36 3.3 实证分析........38 3.3.1 初始结构方程........38 3.3.2 结构方程模型修正....39v 3.3.3 结构方程模型假设检验 41 3.3.4 结果分析 ...41 3.3.5 回收体系构建 ........42 3.4 本章小结........42 4 逆向供应链多主体行为对回收价格测定实证研究.....44 4.1 数据统计分析及特征工程...44 4.1.1 研究对象选取依据....44 4.1.2 数据和特征来源......44 4.1.3 数据缺失值处理......45 4.1.4 特征工程和哑编码....48 4.1.5 数据集划分 .52 4.2 机器学习算法选择概述.....52 4.3 电子产品回收价格测定模型的构建与验证.......53 4.3.1 模型建立...53 4.3.2 GBDT 的寻参过程及模型收敛判定 55 4.3.3 特征重要度度量......56 4.4 研究结论........57 4.5 本章小结........57 5 总结与展望 .59 5.1 研究总结........59 5.2 未来研究展望....60