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Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at/giving/contributeFor more information on this publication, visit /t/RR2445 Library of Congress Control Number:2018947061 ISBN: 978-1-9774-0086-4 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R is a registered trademark. Cover: cil86/stock.adobe iii Preface Since their inception, Israel-Turkey relations have been characterized by ups anddowns; they have been particularly sensitive to developments related to the Arab-Israeliconfict. Troughout the countries’ seven-decade history of bilateral ties, Turkey hasdowngraded its diplomatic relations with Israel three times, most recently in 2011. InMay 2018, Turkey expelled the Israeli ambassador after Israel Defense Forces killeddozens of Palestinians during violent clashes in the Gaza Strip; Israel followed suit andexpelled the Turkish consul in Jerusalem. While Turkey and Israel normalized rela- tions in 2016, and, in principle, they share important economic and geostrategic inter- ests, developments since then indicate that the two countries remain deeply divided oncentral issues, most notably the status of Palestine and its people, Iraqi Kurdish inde- pendence, and the composition of a postwar Syria. Turkey’s divisions with the UnitedStates and its Arab Sunni ally countries, with which Israel shares important objec- tives, have only compounded these diferences. In addition, Israeli and Turkish leaders,mainly Benjamin Netanyahu and Recep Tayyip Erdoan, deeply mistrust each other,making it hard to put diferences aside and focus on shared objectives.Tis report examines the nature of Israeli-Turkish relations, with a particularfocus on the Israeli perspective, and assesses the prospects for ties in the short- andmedium-term future. It should be of interest to policymakers, analysts, and academicresearchers studying Israel, Turkey, and the broader Middle East.RAND Ventures Te RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to publicpolicy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and moresecure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonproft, nonpartisan, and commit- ted to the public interest.RAND Ventures is a vehicle for investing in policy solutions. Philanthropic con- tributions support our ability to take the long view, tackle tough and often controversialtopics, and share our fndings in innovative and compelling ways. RAND’s researchfndings and recommendations are based on data and evidence, and therefore do notnecessarily refect the policy preferences or interests of its clients, donors, or supporters.ivThe Future of Israeli-Turkish Relations Funding for this venture was provided by the generous contributions of theRAND Center for Middle East Public Policy (CMEPP) Advisory Board, and theresearch was conducted within CMEPP, part of International Programs at the RANDCorporation. CMEPP brings together analytic excellence and regional expertise fromacross the RAND Corporation to address the most critical political, social, and eco- nomic challenges facing the Middle East. Support for this project is also provided, inpart, by the income earned on client-funded research and by other donors. For more information about the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy,visit /cmepp or contact the center director (contact information is pro- vided on the webpage). v Contents Preface .iii Summary ..........vii Acknowledgments ...........xi Abbreviations ....xiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction .......1 Organization of Tis Report ..4 CHAPTER TWO A History of Ups and Downs in Bilateral Relations.......5 1948–1990: Limited, Covert Ties.......5 1990s: Marriage of Convenience Transforms into Strategic Ties........6 2000s: Te End of the Israeli-Turkish Honeymoon...........7 CHAPTER THREENormalization Achieved After a Six-Year Process .........11 CHAPTER FOUR Post-Rapprochement Economic Relations.....15 Israeli-Turkish Trade Has Been Growing Despite Political Divides....15 Normalization Has Helped Boost Israeli Tourism to Turkey 17 Strong, Albeit Waning, Bilateral Interest in Energy Trade...18 Conclusion ........23 CHAPTER FIVE Diplomatic and Security Relations After Normalization...........25 Divisions on the Palestinian Issue Make Political Ties Most Precarious..........25 Once Aligned, Israel and Turkey Prioritize Diferent Objectives in Syria ..........31 Longstanding Israeli Support for Kurdish Independence Causes Turkish Backlash ..........32 For Israel, Cyprus and Greece Play Turkey’s Traditional Role..........34 。。。。。。