ASPIRING DRIVERS
WEIGH AUTOMOTIVE
REVOLUTION
Driving-Tests surveys its users
about their views on electric cars
and self-driving cars.
March - April 2017Aspiring Drivers Weigh Automotive Revolution
T
—
ABLE OF CONTENTS
1 Executive Summary......03
2 Introduction..........04
3 Background...........05
4 Approach....07
4.1 Choice of Survicate Platform..........08
4.2 Cleaning the Datasets.09
4.3 Toolset...........09
5 Survey Results.......10
5.1 Age Distribution..10
5.2 Response Drop-Off.........12
5.3Question 1....12
5.4 Question 2....13
5.5 Question 3....14
5.6 Question 4...15
5.7 Crosstabs......17
5.7.1 Question 1 vs. Age Group17
5.7.2Question 4 vs. Age Group...........18
5.7.3Question 1 vs. Question 219
5.7.4Question 1 vs. Question 3...........20
5.7.5Question 3 vs. Question 2...........21
5.7.6Question 1 vs. Question 422
5.7.7Predicting Question 1 Responses.....23
6Future Directions26
7Conclusions...........27
8Appendix.....29
8.1 Margin of Error.....28
8.2 The Chi-Square Test......29
8.3 Logistic Regression.........30
About Driving-Tests...31Aspiring Drivers Weigh Automotive Revolution
01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
—
In March 2017, as part of its ongoing marketing campaign, Driving-Tests (herein called (DTO) had held a se-
ries of discussions with journalists from automotive, business, and high-tech media on what they would most
like to know from aspiring drivers. We ofered to survey visitors to DTO’s website to collect and analyze their
responses.
In March and April, we surveyed tens of thousands of visitors to DTO’s website. Visitors surveyed ranged in age
from children under 13 to seniors. We then performed a statistical analysis of the results.
The most signifcant results from our survey are as follows:
1.Respondents were asked if they would consider purchasing an electric car over a comparably priced gaso-
line-powered vehicle. By at least two to one, respondents in all age groups stated that they would not. The
percentages varied slightly by age group.
2.Respondents were asked if they would be concerned about riding in a fully self-driving car. There were
strong opinions in both directions. A plurality of respondents stated that they would be extremely con-
cerned, and a somewhat smaller percentage of respondents stated that they would not be concerned at all.
3.Respondents were asked if they believed that the benefts of self-driving cars would outweigh their risks
and costs. The percentage of respondents who stated that the benefts would not outweigh the negatives
was larger than the percentage who stated that the benefts would outweigh the negatives. Views on this is-
sue appeared to be related to respondents’ personal levels of concern about riding in a fully self-driving car.
4.Respondents were asked which auto manufacturer they believed would sell the most electric vehicles and
self-driving vehicles in the future. More respondents chose Tesla than any other auto manufacturer. Tesla
was followed by Toyota, Honda, Chevrolet, and Ford in that order. A plurality of teenagers (who comprise
over 40 percent of DTO’s total visitors) believed that Tesla would sell more electric cars and self-driving cars
than other manufacturers, but pluralities of older age groups tended to favor Toyota.
5.Respondents who favored Tesla were more likely to consider purchasing an electric car.
6.Responses to these questions were not independent of each other. Rather, the probability that a respon-
dent would answer in a particular way to one question was related to both his or her age and how he or
she would answer the other questions. (Details are provided in the rest of this report.)Aspiring Drivers Weigh Automotive Revolution
The computer revolution is bringing Buck Rogers to your
next car. The most advanced models now feature automatic
emergency braking (AEB), lane departure warning, “smart”
cruise control that automatically maintains an adequate
following distance, automatic collision avoidance, and self-
parking. Even self-driving cars may be on the road in the not-
too-distant future. The US Department of Transportation is
working with auto manufacturers to equip all new cars with AEB
by September 1, 2022.
A study conducted by the National Highway Trafc Safety
Administration (NHTSA) in 2005–2007 found that some 94
percent of trafc accidents are caused by human choice
or human error. Still, handing control of your vehicle over
to a computer raises obvious issues of safety, reliability,
cybersecurity, ethics, and legal responsibility.
Electric cars are nonpolluting, and their storage batteries
can be charged with electricity from any source of power.
However, is their range adequate for Americans’ needs And
will enough charging stations be built Driving-Tests (herein
abbreviated DTO) has tried to fnd out how its users—aspiring
drivers studying for their knowledge tests—feel about these
automotive advances. Are they eagerly looking forward to
driving such advanced machines
02 INTRODUCTION
—
Driving-Tests
(herein abbreviated
DTO) has tried to
fnd out how its own
users—aspiring drivers
studying for their
knowledge tests—feel
about these automotive
advances. Are they
eagerly looking
forward to driving such
advanced machines
94%
of trafc accidents are caused by
human choice or human errorAspiring Drivers Weigh Automotive Revolution
03 BACKGROUND
—
In March 2017, as part of its ongoing marketing campaign, DTO had held a series of
discussions with journalists from automotive, business, and high-tech media on what
they would most like to know from aspiring drivers. We ofered to survey visitors to
DTO’s website to collect and analyze their responses. Fred Lambert, the Editor-in-Chief of
Elektrek, suggested asking them the following three questions:
1.Would you choose an electric vehicle over a comparably priced gas-powered vehicle
{Yes, No}
2.Which brand (make) of car do you think is most innovative today {Respondents could
name any brand they wished.}
3.For you to trust riding in a self-driving car, it has to be {just as, twice as, four times as,
ten times as} reliable as a human driver.
We performed a couple of preliminary experimental surveys on the Survicate platform.
Around this time, DTO hired a professional statistician, Iuliana David, to assist us with the
statistical analyses of the survey results. After discussing these questions and preliminary
survey results with her, we concluded that Questions 2 and 3 would need signifcant
reformulation to yield useful and statistically signifcant survey results.
Problems with surveying visitors to DTO about Question 2 included the following:
of responses to this open-ended question. As a result, our sample sizes for this
question were much smaller than we had hoped.
“Chevrolet.”
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