关键词:公路上市公司;财务风险;预警
I Construction and application of financial risk
early warning model for highway Iisted companies
ABSTRACT
In the field of highway transportation, the market-based reform of the investment and
financing system had beening promoted since implementing the policy of lending roads and
paying back loans at a fee in 1984. Issueing B shares of Guangdong Expressway
Development Co., Ltd in 1996 is the symobl that China&39;s highway traffic investment began to
raise funds from the capital market, and open the window in the capital market for the feild of
highway tranportation. The author believes that the operation status of the 19 listed companies
that stakeholders concem,such as Investors and traffic authorities,not only reflects the
development of highway traffic to ￡i certain extentj but also affects the reform direction of the
highway transportation investment and financing system in China. If the risks of the operation
of highway listed companies should be controlled, we need to ensure that highway listed
companies have good operating conditions. And the operational risk will eventually show
through the financial risk. Therefore, to ensure that listed companies have a good state of
highway operation, highway listed companies should be financial risk warning. In this paper,
the author establishes the analytical framework of theoretical analysis - model construction -
model application. First of all, by reviewing the literature of the existing financial risk
early-warning models both at home and abroad, we find out the advantages and disadvantages
of the existing financial risk early-warning models, so that the model draws the advantages of
each model in establishing the financial risk early warning model of highway listed
companies. Second, through the analysis of the theory of early warning of financial risk, this
paper analyzes the process of formation of financial risk and the theoretical basis of early
warning of financial risk, and provides ideas and theoretical support for the selection of early
warning indicators of financial risk. Thirdly, on the basis of literature review and early
warning theory of financial risk early warning model, combined with the characteristics of
China&39;s highway listed companies, a more practical financial risk early warning model of
listed companies is established. Finally, the author puts forward suggestions from the
perspectives of management, investors, creditors and the development of the industry ,such as
II regular financial risk waming,business and financial integration, external supervision.
Financial risk early warning model is the core of this study, including three parts. First, based
on the performance evaluation index system of state-owned capital issued by the State-owned
Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, an index system of early warning on the
financial risk of listed companies is established.The second is to use multilevel averaging
method to establish the formula of financial risk warning value of listed companies that it can
use three cycles of financial data to calculate the financial risk warning value. Thirdly, based
on the specific performance of 19 listed companies in the warning period, this paper divides
the alarming degree of the financial risk into an important standard to judge the risk area
where the early warning value is. The research results of this paper are of great significance. It
is not only conducive to the management of the forecast of corporate risk, but also for
investors to control investment risk and traffic authorities to facilitate the performance of
industry management functions.
KEYWORDS: Highway Listed Company; Financial Risk; Early Warning
hi 目录
摘要 I
ABSTRACT U
￥ 论 i
u研宄背景及意义l.i.i研究背景 1
1.1.2研究意义 2
1.2国内外文献回顾1.2.1国外财务风险预警模型1.2.2国内财务风险预警模型回顾1.2.3国内外财务风险预警模型对本文的启发1.3研宄内容和目标1.4研宄思路和方法1.5仓丨J新和局P艮 10
第二章财务风险预警理论分析2.1财务风险的定义2.1.1两种财务风险观比较分析2.1.2本文财务风险定义2.2财务风险成因及识别2.2.1成因分析2.2.2财务风险的识别2.3财务风险预瞽的理论依据2.3.1企业预警理论2.3.2内部控制理论2.3.3政府决策形成理论2.3.4现代财务管理理论第三聿公路上市公司财务风险预警模型的构建3.1财务风险预警指标3.1.1指标的选择IV 3.1.2指标说明 19
3.2预警模型的建立
21
3.2.1假设条件的提出
21
3.2.2预警模型的建立
21
3.2.3预警模型说明
21
3.3定性因素分析
22
3.3.1平行公路项目的影响
22
3.3.2通行费费率变化分析
22
3.3.3行业投融资政策变化分析
23
第四章公路上市公司财务风险预警模型的应用
24
4.1样本选择 24
4.1.1样本列示 24
4.1.2样本资料的选取
25
4.2财务风险预警值的计算
25
4.3财务风险警度划分
27
4.3.1财务风险预警值排序筛选
27
4.3.2财务风险警度划分
28
第五章结论及建议
34
5.1 雜 34
5.2 舰 35
参考文献 37
致谢 40
V 广西大举商級管理人员工商管理硬士掌位论文 公路上市公旬肘务风除SI警棋构成与应用研究
第一章导论
1.1研宄背景及意义
1.1.1研宄背景
改革开放以来,我国经济建设取得了巨大成就,平均GDP增速达到9. 83%,期间建
立了社会市场经济体制,走上了市场经济发展道路,市场经济中的相关制度开始在社会
主义中国推广,破产制度作为市场经济的重要制度之一开始重新被引入中国,上海交通
大学朱宁教授发表文章指出“没有破产制度,就不是市场经济”(2012年)。因此,我国
将企业破产作为规范市场经济的重要手段,并且自1984年沈阳、武汉、重庆等地进行
破产试点以来逐步在实践中探索建立企业破产的法律体系,使得企业破产有法可依。由
于我国实行市场经济时间还比较短,经济体制还不够健全,广大企业在谋求生存的过程
中逐步探索建立现代企业管理制度,企业破产率也比较髙。据统计,我国民营企业的平
均生存期约三年,五年内就有百分之八十五的企业破产,仅百分之十的企业生存期可超
过三年,具有较大规模的企业集团平均生存期不足八年,在创业阶段就无法继续经营而
破产的达到了百分之四十,但是日本企业的平均生存期间能够达到三十年,美国企业平
均生存期甚至达到了四十年。虽然企业破产是经济生活中相当普遍的现象,我国经济发
展过程中也不例外,但一家企业破产不仅是单个企业的问题,会带来一系列的经济和社
会问题,比如银行会出现呆账,下岗职工增多会影响社
==>>