THE GLOBAL PICTURE ISSUE 4| NOVEMBER 2017 THE FUTURE OF E-C MMERCE IN FMCG ALIBABA AND AMAZON FORECAST 202502 03|Introduction The acceleration of e-commerce and the new retail 04|State of play The global picture Where to play How to play 12|The new retail revolution Amazon vs. Alibaba: the race to the top Five minutes with Alibaba Models for success Mobile and social commerce Technology as a major accelerator 20|2025 forecast 22| Conclusion 23| Credits CONTENTS 淘宝店铺 “Vivian研报” 首次收集整理 获取最新报告及后续更新服务请在淘宝搜索店铺“Vivian研报” 或直接用手机淘宝扫描下方二维码 In previous years, we have measured and described the expansion of e-commerce in FMCG. We have seen the share in value of this channel growing to 4.6%. Last year, online experienced a 30% growth in sales, twice that of 2015 growth and much higher than the mere 1.3% increase generated by all FMCG channels in 2017. Retailers and brands are now convinced that investment in growing their online business is crucial, if not mandatory. The myths surrounding e-commerce only fve years ago – a ‘small opportunity’,‘a poor shopper experience’,‘unproftable’– have all been swiftly discredited. Now, and more fundamentally, there is the question of whether e-commerce will continue to thrive as a standalone channel or whether, instead, it will serve as a catalyst for greater integration and retail revolution. E-commerce is still a force set to cannibalise all ofine purchases, but online is much less frequently cited as the insurgent, or ofine as the place from where e-commerce needs to steal share. Instead, it’s about how online and ofine together can create both a better customer experience and better efciency for the entire supply chain. 2017 has seen the multiplication of models which bridge the gap between the online and ofine worlds, from both bricks-and-mortar and pure players. Alliances have emerged between THE ACCELERATION OF E-COMMERCE AND THE NEW RETAIL Stéphane Roger, Global Director of Shopper and Retail Walmart and Jet, Alibaba and Bailian Group, Amazon and Whole Foods, and now Walmart and Google. Brands too have become e-tailers with the rise of subscription models from top manufacturers. It is now clear that the solution to grow this channel is to bring together best practice from these diferent worlds. These are the frst signs of a new retail that allows a complete reconfguration of trade and the acceleration of online. In this report, we have paid signifcant attention to what accelerates e-commerce and how to jump to the next stage:
megacities, categories and shoppers where e-commerce is expanding quickly the e-commerce monarchs of the East and the West with the emergence of virtual reality, augmented reality and artifcial intelligence, as well as the proliferation of mobile and social commerce With these advances comes a steady growth in value share for the channel. We aren’t shopping online exactly as we thought we would be a decade ago but the alternative is smarter, more popular, more easily difusible and no less exciting. INTRODUCTION 03 CROATIA 0.6 POLAND 0.9 AUSTRIA 2.3 PORTUGAL 0.9SPAIN 1. 8DENMARK 2.2 NETHERLANDS 2.6 UK 7.5 FRANCE 5.6 ITALY 0.5 CZ 3.2 GERMANY 1.7 ARGENTINA 0. 8BRAZIL 0.1 MEXICO 0.1 US 1.5 HUNGARY 1.1 SLOVAKIA 1.7 ROMANIA 0.3 04 Today, the e-commerce channel accounts for nearly fve cents of every dollar spent on FMCG worldwide. As a percentage of total FMCG spend, this remains steady progress rather than an outright revolution. Yet, the wide spectrum of e-commerce adoption – especially in less developed regions – represents an important shift in the way people purchase groceries around the world. When it comes to online adoption, there is a clear divide between the digital East and a more cautious West. Despite the diferences, brands and retailers have found ways to build successful e-commerce strategies, playing to the natural preferences of consumers in diferent regions. In a climate of stagnant global FMCG growth, e-commerce is becoming increasingly important everywhere. E-commerce now contributes to a record 36% of global FMCG growth, making it crucial for retailers and brand owners to understand and unlock the channel as it becomes more prevalent. STATE OF PLAY: THE GLOBAL PICTURE COLOMBIA 0.1 CHILE 0.1 % ONLINE VALUE SHARE OF MARKET STATE OF PLAY Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Europanel, Intage—52 weeks ending March 2017 Eric Batty, Global E-commerce Business Development Director
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