I
摘 要
随着经济的迅速增长，城市化、工业化不断加剧，一系列环境问题也随之出现，地下
水受到污染的情况愈演愈烈。由于地下水自身的特点，使得其污染后不易治理，加上污染
源的复杂多样，地下水污染后的治理工作更加困难。因此，如何防止地下水进一步恶化就
尤为重要，其中健康风险评价能够为地下水污染防治提供科学依据。

本文依据 NAS 四步法对淮河流域南阳市地下水中的部分污染物质进行了地下水污染
的健康风险评价，包括有机污染物 DDT、六六六，无机污染物硝酸盐及亚硝酸盐和重金
属锰，得到了特征污染物的致癌及非致癌风险值，并采用蒙特卡罗方法对结果进行了不确
定性分析，得到了风险概率分布，使评价结果更为可靠。

结果表明，研究区地下水中的亚硝酸盐的非致癌风险水平相对较高，DDT、硝酸盐
和锰的非致癌风险水平较低，对人体危害相对较小，但也不能忽视。六六六的致癌及非致
癌风险都不高，在人体可接受范围，不过仍然需要加强管理，及时治理并防止其恶化。研
究区西部和北部地区地下水污染较轻，东部和南部污染较重，南阳市区由于工业发达、人
口聚集，人类活动对地下水影响较大，致使地下水污染严重。

关键词：南阳市，地下水，污染，健康风险评价，不确定性II
Abstract
With the rapid growth of economy, the urbanization and industrialization process is speeding.
A series of environmental problems also emerge, the situation of groundwater contamination
becomes more and more serious. Due to characteristics of groundwater, it is difficult to manage
once they are contaminated. With the complex and varied sources of contamination, the
management of ground-water pollution becomes more difficult. Therefore, to prevent further
deterioration of groundwater is particularly important, and the health risk assessment can
provide a scientific basis for groundwater pollution control.
The issue makes the NAS four steps as the foundation, access health risks of some pollutants
in groundwater of Huai River basin near Nangyang. Including organic pollutants DDT, BHC,
inorganic pollutants nitrate, nitrite and heavy metal Mn. Access to the typical pollutants of
carcinogenic and non-carcinogens value at risk, and use the Monte Carlo method to do the
uncertainty analysis for the results, obtained the risk probability distribution, which makes the
results of assessment more reliable.
The results show that nitrite in the groundwater are on a higher non-carcinogenic risk level in
the research region. DDT, Nitrite and Mn are on a lower level of non-carcinogenic risk,
although relatively lesser harmful to human body, but also cannot be ignored. And the
carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk of BHC is low, it is within the range which human body
can accept. But it still needs to strengthen management, control in time and prevent the
deterioration. The groundwater of the north and west region in the study area is slightly polluted,
while the eastern and southern region is heavier. The most serious pollution area lie in Nanyang
city, due to the developed industry and human activities on the groundwater.
Key words：groundwater，contamination，health risk assessment, uncertainty