我国己经进入老龄化社会,老龄化速度快,老龄人口数量大,地区差异大,传统的

家庭养老模式已经不能满足社会需求。随着城镇化率的不断提高,中国未来的老龄人口

主要生活在城镇,社区养老兼顾家庭养老和机构养老的优点,且费用较低,是解决中国

社会养老问题的重要方式。

本文通过对国内外文献的综述和系统梳理国家的相关文件和制度,对我国养老服务

的发展与政策演化过程进行了深入的评估与解析。基于多学科的研究视角,对“医养结

合的社会养老服务体系构建、社区养老服务的政策、关于养老服务的模式与内容、国内

外社会养老服务需求种类与成本测算模型”等相关的理论、政策、模型、需求模式与成

本测算等进行了细致的分析和研究。通过构建“医养”结合的社会养老服务规模预测模

型,对未来年份不同医养结合社会养老服务的需求规模进行了预测。根据全国城乡人口

老龄化的变化特征,提出了为有效应对并渡过城乡人口老龄化高峰期做准备,选取

2014-2060年为预测区间,以充分挖掘我国未来“医养”结合的长期照护将面临的挑战。

通过构建医养结合的社会养老服务预测模型,结合青岛的经验,对未来年份不同“医养”

结合社会养老服务的需求规模进行预测。结果表明:不论是城镇还是乡村,“居家/社区

+家庭病床”的需求规模始终最大,医养结合的机构需求规模也相对较高。

本文还从养老需求的角度出发,按照低、中、高三个档次对养老病床的需求进行预

测,并从设施投入、土地投入、服务成本三个维度测算了城镇社区养老服务机构建设成

本。本文提出我国应采取“医养”结合的社区养老模式,发展老年服务产业,鼓励企业

投资,采用多元化的投资模式,以满足城市老年人的养老服务需求。

关键词:投资模式;城市社区,养老服务;医养结合。

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华东理工大学硕士学位论文

The Investment Pattern Research on Senior Care in Chinese Urban

Communities

Abstract

China has entered the aging society. Aging is accelerated, the aging population is large,

and aging problems are vary greatly in different regions. The traditional family supporting

pattern has failed to meet the social needs. As the urbanization rate rises continuously,the

aging population of China in the future will mainly live in cities and towns. Combing the

advantages of both family supporting and institution supporting and characterized by the low

expense, community supporting is the important manner to settle the social supporting

problems of China.

Through summarization of Chinese and foreign government's documents and systematic

analysis of related state files and systems,development and policy evolution of the supporting

service in China has been appraised and analyzed deeply in this paper, and related theories,

policies, models,need patterns, cost estimation and so on, which include construction of the

health care combined senior care in social supporting service system,community supporting

service policies, supporting mode and content,needs varieties and cost estimation models of

social supporting service both in China and abroad. It have been analyzed and studied

carefully from the multidiscipline angle; moreover, the need scale of different medical service

and supporting service combined social supporting services in the future years has been

forecast by building the forecasting model for the health care combined senior care in social

supporting service scale. Based on the features of national urban and rural population aging

variation, it has been proposed that preparation be made to deal with and settle the urban and

rural population aging peak effectively,and the years between 2014-2060 have been selected

as the forecasting period to fUlly explore the challenges confronting the long-term medical

service and supporting service combined care in China in the future; by building the

forecasting model for the medical service and supporting service combined social supporting

service and referring to the experience of Qingdao, the need scale of different medical service

and supporting service combined social supporting services in the future years has been

forecast. It has turned out that the family/community + family ward mode has the largest

need scale and that the medical service and supporting service combined institution model

also has the fairly high need scale in either urban or rural areas.

In addition, the needs for supporting wards of low, medium and top grades have been

forecast from the angle of supporting needs in this paper, and the construction cost of