本文以三亚洲际酒店配套海洋旅游项目为研究对象，沿着从理论到方法，到
实证，到实践的思路展开研究。首先介绍了研究的背景与意义并进行了相关综述，
确定了研究内容与方法；接着对风险控制的相关理论基础进行了阐述，对项目风
险控制的内容、重要性以及实施方法等做了详细的论证；然后对三亚洲际度假酒
店配套海洋旅游项目中工程做了相应描述，根据风险识别与风险分析的有关理论，
针对海洋旅游项目的特点，利用德尔菲法对三亚洲际酒店配套海洋项目进行风险
识别，得出项目最重要的风险因素有五种，分别是经济风险、管理风险、自然风
险、社会风险、技术风险。接着利用德尔菲法确定了15项影响该项目的风险因素
对项目进行系统的风险分析，构建三亚洲际酒店配套海洋旅游风险评价的指标体
系，利用层次分析法和模糊综合评价两种方法对项目进行了综合评价，并最终得
到该项目的风险水平处于可以接受的中等水平，但是仍然存在国民经济状况变动、
自然灾害风险、项目建设材料变更、项目参与人员变动、政策变动性这几种重点
风险因素。最后根据风险评价结果，结合项目的实际情况，提出了三亚洲际酒店
配套海洋旅游项目的风险监控手段和针对具体风险的应对措施，以期望将海洋旅
游项目的风险降到最低水平，从而保证项目的顺利实施。
本文的创新点是在借鉴国内外关于可行性研究资料的基础上，对三亚洲际酒
店配套海洋旅游工程项目开发应用进行风险控制理论分析，以此来验证三亚洲际
酒店配套海洋旅游工程项目风险可控性。
关键词：海洋旅游项目；风险控制；德尔菲法；层次分析法；模糊综合评价法
Study on Risk management of Intercontinental Hotel
Marine Tourism Project in Sanya City
Abstract
In recent years，the economy of Sanya has grown dramatically , And the
integration of some modern science and technology and new concept, only
with the traditional tourism resources can not fully satisfy the needs of
tourists. As an important supplement of the tourism resources and an
important type of modern tourism product, the development of marine tourism
project will inject new vitality to tourism industry of Sanya. But the
complexity of the Marine environment, the variability of climate formed
a huge challenge on the development of marine tourism project, also
presented a high demand for the risk management of the project. Furthermore,
the research on risk management has not taken shape theoretical system.
So the research on risk management of marine tourism project has theoretical
and practical meanings.
This paper to Sanya intercontinental hotels supporting ocean tourism
project as the research object。Along the research from theory to method,
to empirical, to practice .First, introduced the background and
significance of the study and analyzed the relevant overview, determined
the content and methods. And then expounded the theoretical basis of risk
control, demonstrated the content of risk control、importance and the
methods in detail. Described the engineering of intercontinental hotel
marine tourism project in Sanya City. According to the risk identification
and risk analysis theory , aim to the feature of marine tourism projects,
use the Delphi identificated the risk of the hotel, obtained the economic
risks, management risks, natural risks, social risks, technical risks are
the most important risks. Used Delphi determined fifteen factors and build
the risk assessment index system. Use Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy
Synthetic Evaluation Method comprehensive evaluated the risk. the results
showed that the risk in a middle level, we can accept it. But still exist
some dangerous factors ,just like the change in the national economy status,
natural disaster risk, the change of project construction materials, the
changes of project staff, policy volatility. At last according to the result
of risk assessment, combined with the actual situation of the project, put
forward the means of the risk monitoring and the response measures. Expect
to minimize the risk level of the marine tourism projects, in order to ensure
the implementation of the project smoothly.
The innovation of this paper is on the home and abroad basis of
feasibility data, analyzed the development and application of the project.
Verificated the controllability of the marine tourism project.
Key words: Marine Tourism Project; Risk management; DE Phil method;
Analytic hierarchy process; The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
I
目 录
0绪论1
0.1研究背景 . 1
0.2研究目的及意义 . 2
0.3国内外相关研究综述 ..... 2
0.3.1国外风险控制研究现状 .. 2
0.3.2国内风险控制研究现状 .. 4
0.4研究内容及技术路线 ..... 6
0.4.1研究内容与框架 .. 6
0.4.2技术路线 .. 7
0.5论文的创新点 ..... 7
1相关研究理论基础8
1.1风险的概念与特征 ......... 8
1.1.1风险的概念 .......... 8
1.1.2风险的特征 .......... 8
1.2风险控制理论分析 ......... 9
1.2.1风险控制的涵义 .. 9
1.2.2风险控制的过程 .. 9
1.2.3风险控制方案的制定原则 ........ 11
1.2.4项目风险控制方法 ........ 11
1.2.5项目风险控制依据 ........ 12
1.3风险识别理论分析 ....... 14
1.3.1 风险识别理论概述 ....... 14
1.3.2 风险识别的方法介绍 ... 15
1.4风险评价理论分析 ....... 17
1.4.1 风险评价的概念 ........... 17
1.4.2 风险评价的步骤 ........... 19
1.5风险监控理论分析 ....... 19
1.5.1 风险监控的概念 ........... 19
1.5.2 风险监控的依据及目标 ........... 20
2三亚洲际酒店配套海洋旅游工程项目背景分析 .......... 21
2.1酒店配套海洋旅游项目风险概述 ....... 21
2.1.1酒店配套海洋旅游项目概述 .... 21
2.1.2酒店配套海洋旅游项目风险的内涵与特性 .... 22
II
2.2 项目概况 .......... 24
2.2.1 项目建设背景 ... 24
2.2.2 项目简介 ........... 24
2.2.3 项目区域环境条件 ....... 26
2.3 项目开发的总体规划与思路 .. 27
2.3.1 项目开发的总体规划 ... 27
2.3.2 项目配套建设规划内容 ........... 28
2.4 项目建设方式和建设进度 ...... 29
2.4.1项目建设规模及投资 .... 29
2.4.2项目实施进度 .... 30
2.4.3项目施工条件和流程 .... 31
2.5 本章小结 .......... 32
3三亚洲际酒店旅游项目风险识别 .......... 33
3.1项目风险识别的技术准备 ....... 33
3.1.1项目风险识别的必要性33
3.1.2风险识别方法的选择 .... 33
3.2酒店配套旅游项目风险分类与因素识别 ....... 35
3.2.1 项目风险分类 ... 35
3.2.2风险因素识别 .... 37
3.3酒店配套旅游项目风险识别实证研究 ........... 40
3.4本章小结 ........... 43
4三亚洲际酒店旅游项目风险评价 .......... 45
4.1 风险评价的方法导入 .. 45
4.1.1层次分析法 ........ 45
4.1.2模糊综合评价法47
4.2风险评价指标体系的构建 ....... 49
4.2.1风险评价指标体系的构建 ........ 49
4.2.2指标权重的确定50
4.3风险评估 ........... 52
4.3.1指标层的模糊评价 ........ 52
4.3.2模糊矩阵计算 .... 53
4.3.3项目风险的综合评价 .... 54
4.4本章小结 ........... 55
5三亚洲际酒店旅游项目风险监控及应对 .......... 56
III
5.1 项目风险监控 .. 56
5.1.1定期风险审查 .... 56
5.1.2挣值分析方法 .... 56
5.2 项目风险的应对 .......... 57
5.2.1经济风险应对 .... 57
5.2.2自然风险应对 .... 58
5.2.3技术风险应对 .... 59
5.2.4管理风险应对 .... 59
5.2.5社会风险应对 .... 60
6结论与展望 .......... 61
6.1结论 ....... 61
6.2展望 ....... 62
参考文献 ..... 64
致谢 ......... 66
个人简历 ..... 67
在学期间发表的学术论文 . 67
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