本文首先对通货膨胀的概念、成因及外汇储备相关理论进行了阐述,在此基
础上,分析了外汇储备增长到通货膨胀的传导机制,以及近年来我国外汇储备增
长的总体情况及特征,最后利用VAR模型分析了外汇储备增长与通货膨胀率,
以及与其他相关变量之间动态联系。实证分析结论表明:
(1)外汇储备的快速增长对我国通货膨胀率具有长期的,持续的正向影响。
(2)人民币的快速升值对减少我国外汇储备规模,抑制我国的通货膨胀具
有积极的作用。
通过实证分析支持了我国外汇储备快速增长对通货膨胀率具有显著影响的
结论,并肯定了人民币升值对降低我国外汇储备规模,抑制通货膨胀的积极作用。
最后,基于上述实证结论,对我国控制通货膨胀提出了相关政策建议。
关键词:外汇储备,通货膨胀,联动关系
ABSTRACT
Based on monetary and financial theory,this paper research on the foreign
exchange reserves growth on the impact of inflation and its linkage relationships. I
adopted the method of combining theoretical and empirical analysis and summary of
the status of foreign exchange reserves rose to the transmission mechanism of
inflation on the basis of foreign exchange reserves growth, selected in 2000 to 2010
the inflation rate,foreign exchange reserves, growth rate, exchange rate growth,
excluding funds outstanding for foreign exchange after the money supply growth rate
(net money supply growth rate) as an index, and quantitative analysis of the foreign
exchange reserve growth and the inflation rate, as well as other relevant variables
between dynamic and thus more accurately grasp of foreign exchange reserves growth
mechanism of the impact of inflation, in order to provide a reference for the
government to develop appropriate policies and recommendations.
First,this paper introduce the concept of inflation, causes of inflation, on this
basis, analysis of foreign exchange reserves increased to the transmission mechanism
of inflation,as well as the overall growth of China's foreign exchange reserves in
recent years the situation and characteristics,the last use of the VAR model,analysis
foreign reserves growth dynamic relationship between the inflation rate, as well as
other relevant variables. The empirical analysis concluded that:
(1)Long-term5 sustained positive impact on the foreign exchange reserves cause the
rapid growth of China's inflation rate.
(2) Inhibit the hedging operations of the central bank on inflation over an extended
period.
(3) The rapid appreciation of the exchange rate of RMB to reduce the scale of China's
foreign exchange reserves, and inhibit China's inflation has a positive effect.Support
the rapid growth of China's foreign exchange reserves through the empirical analysis
on the inflation rate has a significant impact on the conclusions, and affirmed the
sterilization operation, the yuan appreciation to reduce the scale of China's foreign
exchange reserves, inflation. Finally, based on the above empirical findings, the right
to control inflation in China-related policy proposals.
KEYWORDS; Foreign reserves, Inflation, Relationship
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