华东师范大学硕士专业学位论文
2024届硕士专业学位研究生学位论文
分类号：学校代码：10269
密级：学号：51244407037
East China Normal University
硕士专业学位论文
Master’s Degree Thesis (Professional)
金融IT 核心系统提供商
“恒生电子”估值研究
院系：经济与管理学院
专业学位类别：金融硕士
专业学位领域：金融
学位申请人：王佳琪
指导教师：聂丹
2024年5月
华东师范大学硕士专业学位论文
Thesis for Master’s Degree (Professional)in 2024
University code:10269
Student ID:51244407037
East China Normal University
Research on Valuation of the Financial IT Core System
Provider Hundsun Technologies Inc.
Department/School:_Faculty of Economics and Management_
Category:Finance
Field:Finance
Candidate:Jiaqi Wang
Supervisor:Dan Nie
May,2024
华东师范大学硕士专业学位论文
王佳琪硕士学位论文答辩委员会成员名单
姓名职称单位备注
李云鹤副教授华东师范大学主席
李嫦副教授华东师范大学
胡月晓高级经济师上海证券研究所
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华东师范大学硕士专业学位论文
摘要
近年来，金融领域的信息技术应用创新浪潮正在兴起。金融信创产业政策支
持带来的蓬勃发展，给企业带来了前所未有的机遇与挑战。在此背景下，寻找金
融信创企业的正确估值具有重要意义。
由于高新技术企业具有未来现金流难以预测、无形资产价值难以评估、缺乏
可比公司等估值难点，而我国金融市场并不完全有效，因此本文认为金融信创企
业极有可能被错误估值。
恒生电子作为金融IT 行业的龙头企业，是国内金融IT 核心系统的最大供应
商之一。2015年股灾事件中，恒生电子的HOMS 配资分仓系统促进了私募配资
活动的指数级扩张，间接加速了股灾势头。恒生电子也因此面临巨额行政处罚，
股价断崖式下跌。直至2019年后，恒生电子开始布局信创产业，在行业内市占
率遥遥领先，其股价也开始逐步回升。
因此，本文选取恒生电子作为评估对象。通过分析各种估值方法的适用性，
本文最终选取了DCF 与B-S 组合模型对恒生电子的价值进行评估。
通过分析恒生电子各业务板块的发展现状、企业市场地位以及未来发展趋
势等分别对其进行现金流预测，并采用二阶段的DCF 模型对企业现有价值进行
评估；采用B-S 模型计算企业潜在价值，并使用蒙特卡洛模拟来提高资产价格波
动率测算的准确性，最终确定其实际价值为824.42亿元。
本文以2022-2023日收盘价平均值作为市场基准价格，计算得出市场价格
与企业实际价值差异率为-5.56%，即恒生电子企业价值被低估。投资者仍需关注
技术发展不确定性、市场竞争加剧、国家监管政策等风险因素。恒生电子应加大
研发投入以获取市场先发优势，在创造独特性价值的同时强化自身抗风险能力。
关键词:金融信创，DCF 模型，B-S 模型，企业价值评估
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华东师范大学硕士专业学位论文
ABSTRACT
In recent years,a wave of information technology application innovation in the
financial sector is emerging.The booming development brought by the policy support
of this industry has brought unprecedented opportunities and challenges to enterprises.
In this context,it is of great significance to find the correct value of financial
information and innovation enterprises.
Since high-tech enterprises have valuation difficulties such as future cash flow is
difficult to predict,intangible asset value is difficult to assess,and a lack of comparable
companies.Consider that China's financial market is not fully effective,this paper
argues that it is highly likely that these enterprises will be incorrectly valued.
As a leading enterprise in the financial IT industry,Hundsun Technologies Inc.is one
of the largest suppliers of core financial IT systems in China.During the stock market
crash event in 2015,Hundsun'HOMS lending and splitting system facilitated the
exponential expansion of private lending activities and indirectly accelerated the
momentum of the crash.As a result,it faced huge administrative penalties and its share
price fell off a cliff.Until after 2019,Hundsun began to lay out the innovation industry,
and its stock price began to gradually rebound.
Therefore,this paper selects Hundsun as the valuation object.By analyzing the
applicability of various valuation methods,this paper finally selects the DCF and B-S
combination model to assess its value.By analyzing each business segment of Hundsun,
the two-stage DCF model is used to assess the existing value of the enterprise;the B-S
model is used to calculate the potential value of the enterprise,and Monte Carlo
simulation is used to improve the accuracy of asset price volatility measurement,and
finally determined its actual value to be 82.44billion yuan.
This paper takes the average of the closing prices from 2022to 2023as the market
benchmark price.The difference rate between the market price and the actual value of
the enterprise is -5.56%,which means that its value is underestimated,and its stock has
investment value.Investors still need to pay attention to the uncertainty of technological
development,intensified market competition,national regulatory policies,etc.
Hundsun should increase investment in research and development to obtain the first-
mover advantage in the market and strengthen its own anti-risk ability while creating
unique value.
KEY WORDS:[Innovation in the application of financial technology][DCF
model][B-S model][Enterprise value evaluation]
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