分类号___________密级_公开_____
收藏编号___________学号160727083
学校代码10386编号______
(专题研究)
盈余预测特征与证券分析师职业竞争力
——基于团队合作经历视角的分析
研究方向：财务管理
研究生姓名：吕冬水
指导教师、职称：陈栋讲师
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所在学院：经济与管理学院
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盈余预测特征与证券分析师职业竞争力
——基于团队合作经历视角的分析
摘要
知识经济时代，团队合作生产模式以其高绩效产出的特点在知识生产领域被
广泛采用，并凸显出日益重要的地位。但是目前国内外针对团队合作绩效评价的
研究主要集中在整体绩效的考评，缺乏关于团队合作对个人能力以及职业竞争的
影响研究。作为知识型员工的典型代表，证券分析师拥有专业的知识背景和分析
技能，对上市公司的盈余信息具备较高的信息解读能力和预测能力，能够较为全
面地分析、估计以及预测这些信息对公司股票价格的影响，给出投资评级的相关
建议，对投资者的决策产生一定影响，在资本市场中的地位举足轻重。因此，本
文以证券分析师群体为研究对象，探讨在知识经济背景下，团队合作经历对个体
能力以及在劳动力市场中职业竞争的影响，试图拓展知识型团队合作绩效以及资
本市场和财务金融领域的相关研究。
本文选取2010-2017年间分析师发布的盈余预测数据为研究对象，建立相关
模型，对我国证券分析师团队合作经历对盈余预测准确性以及盈余预测及时性的
影响进行实证研究，在此基础上，本文以该期间发布盈余预测报告数据的分析师
为研究样本，考察了证券分析师团队合作经历对其职业流动的影响，进一步地，
研究其对职业流动类型以及明星分析师评选的影响。
通过实证检验，本文发现，具备团队合作经历的分析师发布的盈余预测报告
更为准确且更及时，这表明分析师在经历团队合作以后，专业技能得到了提升，
由此增强了个人的盈余预测能力；其次，本文发现，具备团队合作经历的分析师
在劳动力市场中更容易产生职业流动，区分职业流动类型进行实证研究后，发现
具备团队合作经历的分析师更有可能获得职业升迁，与此同时，本文进一步研究
发现分析师具备团队合作经历增强了其获选明星分析师的可能性。以上结论表明，
分析师在参与团队合作之后，提升了个人的盈余预测能力，团队合作经历作为传
递个人能力的显性信号能够被劳动力市场所识别，对其在劳动力市场中的职业竞
争产生影响，与此同时，机构投资者在进行明星分析师的评选过程中，团队经历
同样作为传递个人能力显性信号被加以识别，对评选结果产生一定影响。
关键词：知识型团队；分析师；盈余预测；职业流动；
I
Earnings Forecast Characteristics and
Professional Competitiveness of Securities
Analysts：Based on the Perspective of
Teamwork Experience
Abstract
In the era of knowledge economy,the team-based production model is widely used
in the field of knowledge production with its high-performance output characteristics,
and it highlights an increasingly important position.However,the research on
performance evaluation of teamwork at home and abroad mainly focuses on the
evaluation of overall performance,and lacks research on the impact of teamwork on
individual ability and professional competition.As a typical representative of the
knowledge-type employees,securities analysts have professional background
knowledge and analytical skills,to the surplus information of listed companies have
higher information comprehension ability and the ability to predict,can be more
comprehensive analysis,estimate,and predict the information about the company's
stock price,and provide the investment rating suggestions,a certain impact on
investors'decision-making,and plays an important role in the position in the capital
market.Therefore,this paper takes the securities analyst group as the research object,
and explores the impact of teamwork experience on individual ability and professional
competition in the labor market under the background of knowledge economy,trying
to expand the research on the performance of knowledge-based team cooperation,
capital market and finance.
This paper selects the earnings forecast data released by analysts from 2010to
2017as the research object,establishes relevant models,and conducts an empirical
study on the impact of the teamwork experience of China's securities analysts on the
accuracy of earnings forecast and the timeliness of earnings forecast.On this basis,In
this paper,the analysts who released the earnings forecast report data during the period
were used as research samples to examine the impact of the securities analyst team
experience on their career mobility,and further study the impact on the types of career
flows and the selection of star analysts.
Through empirical tests,this paper finds that the earnings forecast report issued
by analysts with teamwork experience is more accurate and timely,which indicates that
after the teamwork,the professional skills of the analysts have been improved,thus
II
enhancing the individual's earnings forecast.ability.Secondly,this paper finds that
analysts with teamwork experience are more likely to generate career flows in the labor
market,and after empirical research on the types of occupational mobility,it is found
that analysts with teamwork experience are more likely to get career promotion,at the
same time,Further research in this paper found that analysts have a teamwork
experience that enhances the likelihood of being selected as a star analyst.The above
conclusions show that after participating in teamwork,analysts have improved their
individual earnings forecasting ability,and the teamwork experience as a dominant
signal to convey personal ability can be recognized by the labor market,affecting their
professional competition in the labor market.At the same time,in the process of
conducting a star analyst's selection process,the team experience is also identified as a
dominant signal of personal ability,which has a certain impact on the selection results.
Key words:Knowledge team ;Securities analyst ;Earnings
forecast ;Professional mobility
III