摘要
战略性新兴产业拥有技术创新性和战略导向性等特征，代表未来科技与产业发展
方向，能够成长为一个国家或地区的主导产业，引领带动经济社会的发展。我国自
2010年起将战略性新兴产业列为重点发展产业，通过实施初期“以市场换技术”的
出口导向型发展战略，保障和促进了战略性新兴产业的技术提升与规模扩张。然而在
当前严峻复杂的国际经济形势下，原先的出口导向型发展模式面临巨大挑战：供给端
国外先进技术获取艰难，需求端外部超常购买力也面临终结。这使我国战略性新兴产
业发展重心由国外市场逐渐转入国内消费市场。欣慰的是，“双循环”战略背景下，
国内消费升级优势已成为产业高质量发展的重要支撑。因此，为突破战略性新兴产业
发展瓶颈，抢占经济制高地，探寻国内消费升级对战略性新兴产业高端化发展的影响
将具有重要现实意义。
本文首先系统回顾了国内外关于战略性新兴产业与消费需求的相关研究，在梳理
相关理论基础上，构建消费升级影响战略性新兴产业发展的机理框架，为后文实证奠
定理论基础。其次，通过扩展线性支出模型衡量我国消费升级现状，并基于2013~2019
年战略性新兴产业上市公司样本，利用DEA-Malmquist 指数法测算tfp，进而把握我
国战略性新兴产业的发展情况。结果显示：（1）我国高层次商品和服务支出占比呈
上升趋势，消费升级态势明显；（2）城市消费略优于农村消费，但农村消费升级潜
力较大；（3）战略性新兴产业发展处于良好态势，tfp 增长主要依赖技术进步率与规
模效率；（4）九大战略性新兴产业中数字创意产业发展最快，新能源汽车产业增长
较缓，行业异质性明显；（5）存在“轻技术创新、重规模扩张”的粗放化发展趋势。
随后结合第二、三章节的理论与现实基础，本文通过FE 和2SLS 模型实证消费
升级对战略性新兴产业发展的直接影响，并进一步以技术创新为中介变量构建中介效
应模型检验间接影响。研究发现：（1）直接影响效应分析表明消费升级对战略性新
兴产业tfp 有显著促进作用；（2）间接影响效应分析表明消费升级能够通过扩大企业
研发投入强度提升技术创新水平，进而有效推动产业发展。（3）行业异质性结果显
示消费升级对战略性新兴产业tfp 的促进作用在高端装备制造产业中更为显著；（4）
区域异质性结果显示消费升级对战略性新兴产业tfp 的促进作用在东部地区更为显著；
（5）城镇消费升级对战略性新兴产业tfp 的促进作用高于农村消费升级。
最后基于全文结果，从提高产业自主创新、挖掘消费市场潜力、完善国内市场机
制、协调行业与区域发展差异、统筹城乡消费建设五个方面为战略性新兴产业高端化
发展提供相应的对策建议。
关键词：战略性新兴产业；消费升级；技术创新；DEA-Malmquist；中介效应
I
ABSTRACT
Strategic emerging industries,representing the future development direction of
technology and industry,have the characteristics of technological innovation and strategic
orientation.They can grow into the leading industry of a country or region,and then lead
the economic and social development.Since 2010,China has listed strategic emerging
industries as key development industries.Through the initial implementation of the
export-oriented development strategy of 'market for technology',the government ensured
and promoted technological upgrading and scale expansion of strategic emerging industries.
However,in the current severe and complex international economic situation,the original
export-oriented development model is facing great challenges.On the supply side,it is
difficult to acquire advanced technology,and on the demand side,external super-normal
purchasing power is also facing the end,which makes the focus of the development of
China's strategic emerging industry change from the foreign market to the domestic
consumer market.Fortunately,under the background of 'Double Cycling'Strategy,the
advantages of domestic consumption upgrade have become an significant support for the
high-quality development of industries.Therefore,in order to break through the bottleneck
in the development of strategic emerging industries,seize the highland of economic system,
it will be of great practical significance to explore the impact of domestic consumption
upgrade on high-end development of strategic emerging industries.
Firstly,this paper systematically reviews the domestic and foreign researches on
strategic emerging industries and consumer demand.On the basis of sorting out relevant
theories,this paper constructs a mechanism framework of how consumption upgrade
affects the development of strategic emerging industries,which lays the theoretical
foundation for the empirical research in the following paper.Secondly,the consumption
upgrade of China is measured by the extended linear expenditure model.And the total
factor productivity is measured by the DEA-Malmquist index method based on the samples
of listed companies in strategic emerging industries from 2013to 2019,so as to grasp the
development situation of China's strategic emerging industries.The results show that :
(1)The proportion of high-level goods and services expenditure in China is on the rise,and
the consumption upgrade is obvious.(2)Urban consumption is slightly better than rural
consumption,but rural consumption has greater potential for upgrading.(3)Strategic
emerging industries are in a good state of development,and the growth of the change rate
II
of total factor productivity mainly depends on the rate of technological progress and scale
efficiency.(4)Among the nine strategic emerging industries,the digital creative industry
develops fastest,while the growth of new energy automobile industry is relatively slow,
and the industry heterogeneity is significant.(5)The industry has an extensive development
trend of 'light technological innovation,heavy scale expansion'.
Subsequently,based on the theoretical and practical basis of Chapter 2and Chapters 3,
this paper studies the direct impact of consumption upgrade on the development of
strategic emerging industries through FE model and 2SLS model,and further constructs a
mediation model to test the indirect impact by taking technological innovation as the
mediating variable.The study finds that :(1)The direct effect analysis shows that
consumption upgrade has a significant role in promoting the change rate of total factor
productivity of strategic emerging industries.(2)The indirect effect analysis shows that
consumption upgrade can improve the level of technological innovation by increasing the
intensity of enterprise R&D investment,which effectively promotes the development of
industries.(3)The industry heterogeneity analysis shows that the promotion effect of
consumption upgrade on total factor productivity of strategic emerging industries is more
obvious in the high-end equipment manufacturing industry.(4)The regional heterogeneity
analysis shows that the promotion effect of consumption upgrade on total factor
productivity of strategic emerging industries is more significant in eastern China.(5)The
promotion effect of urban consumption upgrade on total factor productivity of strategic
emerging industries is higher than that of rural consumption upgrade.
Finally,based on the research results,corresponding policy suggestions are provided
for the high-end development of strategic emerging industries from five aspects:improving
industrial independent innovation,tapping consumer market potential,perfecting domestic
market mechanism,coordinating differences between the development of industries and
regions,and coordinating urban and rural consumption construction.
Key words:Strategic Emerging Industries;Consumption Upgrade;Technological
Innovation;DEA-Malmquist;Intermediary Effect
III
目录
摘要........................................................................................................................................I
ABSTRACT..........................................................................................................................II
第1章绪论.......................................................................................................................1
1.1研究背景及意义...................................................................................................1
1.1.1研究背景.....................................................................................................1
1.1.2研究意义.....................................................................................................2
1.2研究思路与内容...................................................................................................2
1.2.1研究思路.....................................................................................................2
1.2.2主要内容.....................................................................................................3
1.2.3技术路线.....................................................................................................3
1.3研究方法及创新...................................................................................................5
1.3.1研究方法.....................................................................................................5
1.3.2创新之处.....................................................................................................5
第2章文献综述...............................................................................................................6
2.1消费升级相关研究...............................................................................................6
2.2战略性新兴产业发展相关研究...........................................................................7
2.3消费升级与战略性新兴产业发展相关研究.......................................................8
2.3.1消费需求与产业演进.................................................................................8
2.3.2消费升级与产业升级.................................................................................9
2.3.3消费升级与产业创新...............................................................................10
2.4评述小结.............................................................................................................10
第3章理论分析.............................................................................................................12
3.1消费升级理论基础.............................................................................................12
3.1.1消费升级内涵...........................................................................................12
3.1.2消费理论概述...........................................................................................12
3.2战略性新兴产业发展理论基础.........................................................................14
3.2.1战略性新兴产业内涵...............................................................................14
3.2.2产业高端化发展内涵...............................................................................16
3.2.3战略性新兴产业发展理论概述...............................................................17
3.3消费升级影响战略性新兴产业发展的理论分析.............................................18
3.3.1消费升级对战略性新兴产业发展的影响...............................................18
IV