-I- 摘要 随着全球航运业的快速发展，海上航行船舶产生的环境污染问题日益受到人们 关注。为此世界海事组织（IMO）召开会议并决定从2020年1月1日起正式实施限 硫令，其具体要求是在全球范围内国际航行船舶所用的燃料油硫含量不得高于0.5% m/m，旨在降低船用燃料油的硫排放量，实现船舶燃油动力系统清洁化，更好地保护 地球的大气环境。对作为船用燃料油供应方的Z公司而言，严格的限硫令标准成为 行业历史上少有的重大挑战。本文重点研究限硫令背景下Z公司保税燃油的市场需 求预测，为限硫令背景下企业的发展指明方向。 本文首先对限硫令和市场需求预测相关的国内外研究成果进行了分析总结，同 时详细地叙述了限硫令与保税燃油相关政策、市场需求预测理论与方法等内容，为 本文的写作奠定基础。其次介绍了Z公司的基本情况和限硫令对其生产经营活动的 影响，重点分析了限硫令对Z公司竞争环境、采购环境的影响，并介绍了Z公司保 税燃油市场需求现状，同时对市场需求的影响因素、限硫令对市场需求的影响等方 面进行了归纳总结。随后本文尝试通过以指数平滑、ARIMA、多元线性回归分析等 预测模型为基础、以加权组合的方式建立组合预测模型，从而对Z公司在限硫令背 景下的保税燃油市场需求进行预测，并得出市场需求量将稳步上升、年内需求峰值 将会降低的结论；在进行多元回归分析过程中，得出保税燃油市场价格、进出港外 国籍国际航行船舶数量是影响保税燃油市场需求的最重要因素。最后，针对限硫令 政策的影响和需求预测的结果，提出了建立价格优势、开拓新市场、加强合规操作 与自我防护、提高加注效率等对策建议。 关键词：限硫令；保税燃油；市场需求预测；组合预测模型 燕山大学工商管理硕士学位论文 -II- Abstract Withrapiddevelopmentofglobalshippingindustry,theenvironmentalpollution causedbyshipsatseahasattractedmoreandmoreattention.Forthisreason,theWorld MaritimeOrganization(IMO)heldameetinganddecidedtoofficiallyimplementthe emissionlimitofsulfurcontentofmarinefueloilnomorethan0.5%m/mfromJanuary1, 2020,withtheaimofreducingthesulfuremissionofmarinefueloil,realizingcleanship fuelpowersystem,andbetterprotectingtheearth'satmosphericenvironment.Forship ownersandmarinefueloilsupplycompanies,strictsulfurlimithasreallybecomeabig challengeinthehistoryoftheirownindustry.Focusingonthemarketdemandforecastof Zcompany'sbondedfueloilunderthebackgroundofsulfurlimit,itispointedoutZ company’sdevelopmentdirectionunderthebackgroundofsulfurrestrictioninthispaper. Thesulfurlimitandmarketdemandforecastrelatedresearchresultsathomeand abroadissummarizedinthispaper,anditdescribesthesulfurlimitandbondedfueloil policy,marketdemandpredictiontheoryandmethodindetail,tolayagoodfoundation forthethispaper.Secondly,thebasicsituationofZcompanyandsulfurlimitimpacton itsproductionandoperationactivitiesisintroduced,focusingonanalyzinghowthesulfur limitinfluencesZcompany’scompetitionenvironment,purchasingenvironment,andthe presentsituationofZcompanybondedfuelmarketdemand.Atthesametime,the influencefactorsofmarketdemandandsulfurlimit’simpactonthemarketdemandofZ companyisintroduced.Subsequently,itattemptstoestablishacombinationprediction modelbasedonexponentialsmoothing,ARIMA,andmultiplelinearregressionanalysis inthewayofweightedcombination,soastopredictthebondedfueloilmarketdemandof Zcompanyunderthebackgroundofsulfurlimit,anditisconcludedthatthemarket demandwillrisesteadilyandyearspeakdemandwillgodown.Intheprocessofmultiple regressionanalysis,itisconcludedthatthebondedfuelmarketpriceandthenumberof foreignshipsinandoutofQportarethemostimportantfactorsaffectingthebondedfuel marketdemand.Finally,inviewoftheimpactofsulfurrestrictionpolicyandtheresultsof demandforecasting,thispaperputforwardscountermeasuresandsuggestionssuchas Abstract -III- establishingpriceadvantage,expandingnewmarkets,strengtheningcomplianceoperation andself-protection,andimprovingoilbunkeringefficiency. Keywords:sulphurlimit;bondedfueloil;marketdemandforecast;combination forecastingmodel 目录 -V- 目录 摘要....................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT..........................................................................................................................II 第1章绪论.......................................................................................................................1 1.1研究的背景及意义................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景.........................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义.........................................................................................................1 1.2国内外研究现状....................................................................................................2 1.2.1国外研究现状.................................................................................................2 1.2.2国内研究现状.................................................................................................3 1.2.3国内外研究综述.............................................................................................5 1.3研究内容及方法....................................................................................................5 1.3.1研究内容.........................................................................................................5 1.3.2研究方法.........................................................................................................6 第2章相关概念及理论.....................................................................................................8 2.1限硫令与保税燃油政策分析................................................................................8 2.1.1限硫令的概念及影响分析.............................................................................8 2.1.2保税燃油的概念及政策分析.......................................................................10 2.2市场需求预测理论概述......................................................................................12 2.2.1市场需求预测基本理论...............................................................................12 2.2.2市场需求预测模型及比较...........................................................................13 2.3本章小结..............................................................................................................17 第3章Z公司保税燃油需求现状及影响因素分析........................................................18 3.1Z公司概况............................................................................................................18 3.1.1Z公司企业简介.............................................................................................18 3.1.2核心业务流程介绍.......................................................................................18 3.2Z公司市场环境分析............................................................................................20 燕山大学工商管理硕士学位论文 -VI- 3.2.1竞争环境分析...............................................................................................20 3.2.2采购环境分析...............................................................................................20 3.3Z公司市场需求情况分析....................................................................................22 3.3.1经营的市场范围...........................................................................................22 3.3.2客户群体分析...............................................................................................22 3.3.3市场需求量分析...........................................................................................23 3.4保税燃油市场需求影响因素分析......................................................................24 3.4.1保税燃油市场价格.......................................................................................24 3.4.2进出港国际航行船舶数量...........................................................................26 3.4.3港口货物吞吐量...........................................................................................27 3.4.4国内保税燃油政策.......................................................................................28 3.5限硫令对市场需求影响分析.