本文以广州市珠江新城区H大型停车场建设充电桩项目为依托，结合我国及广东省、 广州市充电设施发展的现状，通过整理收集新能源汽车及基础配套设施的相关政策法 规，对项目建设的技术条件要求进行论证，及对 H 大型停车场建设充电桩建设项目的现 实意义加以分析，认为 H 大型停车场建设充电桩项目十分必要。 在分析项目建设必要性的基础上，结合珠江新城区实地情况，具体分析该充电桩项 目的场址选择、建设条件和技术方案，然后根据国家十三五发展新能源汽车的战略规划、 广东省广州市新能源汽车推广指标及广州市人口发展规划，对珠江新城区域十三五期间 新能源汽车的保有量和充电需求影响因素进行趋势研究，并分析参照特斯拉在同区域的 超级充电站的充电需求，对未来五年新能源汽车的充电需求进行分析预测，最后采用净 现值法评价项目建设方案，分析得出净现值最大的方案为最优建设方案，并计算得出最 优方案的经济指标。 最后，运用 FMEA 分析方法对项目建设过程及运营过程中主要存在的资金风险、政 策风险、施工建设风险、外部风险、市场风险及技术风险等六大主要风险类型项进行分 析，提出相应失效模式并分析其影响、主要因素以及当前控制措施，并在计算风险优先 数的基础上，找出风险较大的失效模式，提出优化改进措施，并重新对改进优化后的风 险进行了评估，为 H 大型停车场建设充电桩项目的实际建设和风险预防提供了重要参 考。 关键词，电动汽车、充电设施、充电桩、净现值法、FMEAII ABSTRACT On the basis of the charging piles construction project of H large parking lot in Zhujiang, Guangzhou, through finishing the collection of new energy vehicles and the relevant policies and regulations of the basic facilities, this paper demonstrated the technical requirements of the project construction, analyzed the practical significance of the project combined with the present situation of the charging infrastructure construction of China and Guangdong province, Guangzhou. Then the necessity of this construction project was proved. Based on the analysis on the necessity of project construction, the charging pile project site selection ,construction conditions and technical proposal was specifically analyzed combined with field condition of Zhujiang new urban district. According to the strategic planning of new energy vehicles in The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan the popularization target of new energy vehicles and The population development planning in Guangzhou, Guangdong, the car ownership and the influence factor of charging demand in zhujiang region during the the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan was analyzed , referring to the charging demand of Tesla super charging station in same region. The charging demand of new energy vehicles in the next five years was analyzed. The net present value method was used to evaluate the construction project ,the optimal case which gave maximum net present value and its economic indicators was presented. Finally, the mainly risk in the construction was analyzed by using FMEA method, including funding risks, policy risks, construction risks, external risks and technical risk. the failure form and corresponding influence ,main factors and existing control measures was proposed. Then the mainly risky failure form was pointed out and improvement measures was presented combined with the risk priority number. The risks after modification was evaluated again, which provided important reference to the charging pile construction project of H large paring lot and the risk aversion. Key words: electric cars; charging infrastructure; charging pile; net present value; FMEAIII 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. II 图表清单..................................................................................................................................VI 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义 .............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 国内外电动汽车充电站发展现状 .................................................................................. 1 1.2.1 国外发展现状............................................................................................................ 1 1.2.2 国内发展现状............................................................................................................ 2 1.3 国内充电站建设研究现状 .............................................................................................. 3 1.4 电动汽车发展对充电技术的要求 .................................................................................. 4 1.5 电动汽车充电站的建设方式、建设容量的主要影响因素 .......................................... 5 1.5.1 电动汽车充电量的总体需求.................................................................................... 5 1.5.2 电动汽车充电模式.................................................................................................... 5 1.5.3 动力电池特性............................................................................................................ 6 1.5.4 充电时间.................................................................................................................... 6 1.5.5 充电场所及其他环境条件........................................................................................ 6 1.6 本文主要研究内容 .......................................................................................................... 6 第二章 H 大型停车场建设充电桩的必要性..........................................................................8 2.1 广州市新能源汽车及充电设施配备不足 ...................................................................... 8 2.2 珠江新城区域充电桩极度缺乏 ...................................................................................... 9 2.3 国家省市对建设充电桩的政策优惠 .............................................................................. 9 2.3.1 项目属于国家、省、市各级政府鼓励发展的产业.............................................. 10 2.3.2 项目建设有利于实现节能减排.............................................................................. 11 2.4 具备新能源汽车充电桩企业运营的条件 .................................................................... 11 2.5 符合企业发展新能源汽充电设施产业的战略布局 .................................................... 12 2.6 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 13 第三章 充电桩场址选择及建设条件分析............................................................................14 3.1 充电桩建设选址影响因素及分析 ................................................................................ 14IV 3.1.1 候选站址选择的影响因素...................................................................................... 14 3.1.2 选址 H 大型停车场建设充电站的条件分析 ......................................................... 14 3.2 建设充电站外部接入方式的影响因素及分析 ............................................................ 17 3.2.1 充电站外部接入方式及影响因素........................................................................... 17 3.2.2 H 大型停车场建设充电站的外部接入方式分析 ................................................... 18 3.3 充电桩充电技术的影响因素及分析............................................................................. 18 3.3.1 充电桩充电技术的影响因素.................................................................................. 18 3.3.2 H 大型停车场充电桩技术方案选择 ....................................................................... 19 3.4 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 22 第四章 H 大型停车场充电桩需求影响分析........................................................................23 4.1 珠江新城区域新能源汽车充电需求巨大 .................................................................... 23 4.2 H 大型停车场的停车需求用户分析 ............................................................................. 24 4.3 十三五珠江新城区域新能源汽车保有量及充电需求数量分析 ................................ 26 4.3.1 十三五期间广东省及广州市新能源汽车保有量的变化趋势.............................. 26 4.3.2 十三五期间珠江新城区域新能源汽车保有量的变化趋势.................................. 27 4.3.3 十三五期间珠江新城区域新能源汽车充电需求分析.......................................... 29 4.4 特斯拉超级充电站用户需求概率分析 ........................................................................ 29 4.5 十三五期间珠江新城区域充电桩需求分析 ................................................................ 32 4.6 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 33 第五章 H 大型停车场充电桩建设项目经济评价................................................................34 5.1 净现值法分析充电桩建设项目规模............................................................................. 34 5.1.1 有效充电需求.......................................................................................................... 34 5.1.2 建设充电桩项目的成本分析................................................................................... 35 5.1.3 建设充电桩项目收入分析...................................................................................... 37 5.1.4 净现值法确定 H 大型停车场充电桩建设规模 ...................................................... 38 5.2 H 大型停车场充电桩建设项目的经济评价 ................................................................. 42 5.3 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 44 第六章 项目风险分析与控制................................................................................................45 6.1 项目风险分析................................................................................................................. 45 6.2 各失效模式及潜在要因分析......................................................................................... 46V 6.3 严重度、发生率、控制力等级划分并取值................................................................. 47 6.4 对每个要素计算 RPN .................................................................................................... 47 6.4 风险控制改进措施......................................................................................................... 48 6.5 本章小结......................................................................................................................... 50 结 论........................................................................................................................................51