职业教育经过多年的发展至今方兴未艾，无论是在外国还是国内都是国家支持的产 业，而且这是衡量一个国家现代化程度的重要标志，是促进经济、社会发展和劳动就业 的重要途径。发达国家的经验表明，技术进步、技能型人才的培养、工业化水平的提高 都与职业教育息息相关。 本文从现时代工业化进入中期阶段、城镇化步伐加快、农村劳动力大转移的大环境 下出发，首先描述了英国、美国、法国、德国的职业教育的发展状况，对比我国职业教 育存在的问题，以及详细分析了 XD 市地区政治、经济、文化和竞争环境。所有信息表 明，虽然我国的职业教育得到长足发展，但是地区失衡、企业用工短缺现象仍然存在， 特别是应对国际家电和电子行业的快速发展，在 XD 市投资职业培训是一个难得的商机。 为此，本文对项目进行定性和定量分析。从市场项目设计到融资决策、投资评价， 包括投资成本、盈利模式、校舍投资模型分析、到融资渠道分析、融资结构的确定、盈 亏平衡分析、杠杆系数分析、投资回收期分析、敏感性分析等等。最后针对投资的不确 定性，列举了存在的风险和给出了应对策略。所有分析表明本项目的投资是可行的。 关键词，职业培训；融资；借贷行为；投资评价；风险II Abstract Currently, vocational trainning has just been unfolding after many years development, been supported by many countries whatever foreign or domestic ， promoted social culture,economic and work on employment,and has become the main criterion in modernization level. The experiment of developed country indicated that vocational trainning is closely bound up with technological progress ，talent education and industrialization level. Under the mid-term industrialization being, urbanization speeding up, labor force of rural area transfering, this paper first elaborated the status of vocational trainning development in England, America, France and Germeny, the existing problem in our country , and the environment of politics, policy, economic and competition in XD city. Although vocational education development significantly, all the informaion implicated that investing in XD city is one business opportunity hard to come by, because the disequilibrium education in different region, the shortage of manpower in enterprise and developing rapidly in electronic industry has occurred. Therefore，the quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis of project design, financing model and investment evaluation also descripted in this paper, included the capitalized cost, the revenue model ,the financing structure choice, the financing marginal cost caculation. Obviously, to work out the business project depanded on profect caculation, such as the following evaluated item: the breakeven point, the payback period , leverage factor, sensitivity analysis and the schoolhouse cost model option. Eventually, the risks and the corresponding measures taken for this project uncertainty in operation process was listed in the sixth chapter. The above-mentioned showed that this investment of vocational education in XD city is feasible. Keyword，Vocational Trainning; Fiancing; Borrowing Behavior; Investment Evaluation; Risk` III 目 录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ...............................................................................................................................II 图表清单..................................................................................................................................VI 第一章 绪 论............................................................................................................................1 1.1 项目背景.......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究目的和意义.............................................................................................................. 1 1.3 文献综述.......................................................................................................................... 2 1.3.1 国外职业教育的发展状况....................................................................................... 2 1.3.2 国内职业教育的发展状况....................................................................................... 7 1.3.3 国内外职业教育的比较和启示............................................................................... 9 1.4 报告内容和框架............................................................................................................ 10 第二章 市场环境分析............................................................................................................12 2.1 经济环境分析................................................................................................................ 12 2.2 社会和文化环境............................................................................................................ 13 2.3 竞争环境分析................................................................................................................ 14 2.3.1 当地职业教育现状................................................................................................. 14 2.3.2 存在不足................................................................................................................. 14 2.4 需求分析........................................................................................................................ 15 2.4.1 行业产品升级换代对人才培训的需求................................................................. 15 2.4.2 企业产能增加对人才培训的需求......................................................................... 15 2.4.3 收益增加吸引劳动力进入培训............................................................................. 16 2.5 目标群体资金分析........................................................................................................ 16 2.6 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 17 第三章 项目设计....................................................................................................................18 3.1 实施阶段划分................................................................................................................ 18 3.2 课程设置........................................................................................................................ 19 3.3 营销方案........................................................................................................................ 20 3.3.1 核心理念................................................................................................................. 20IV 3.3.2 目标市场................................................................................................................. 21 3.3.3 宣传方式................................................................................................................. 21 3.4 组织结构........................................................................................................................ 22 3.5 项目预算........................................................................................................................ 23 3.5.1 教学资源................................................................................................................. 23 3.5.2 成本构成................................................................................................................. 24 3.5.3 盈利模式................................................................................................................. 27 3.6 预测现金流量................................................................................................................ 29 3.7 校舍成本决策................................................................................................................ 29 3.7.1 决策模型................................................................................................................. 29 3.7.2 模型计算................................................................................................................. 31 3.8 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 32 第四章 融资策略分析............................................................................................................36 4.1 职业培训的融资渠道分析............................................................................................ 36 4.2 投资方简介.................................................................................................................... 38 4.3 融资结构设计................................................................................................................ 39 4.3.1 目标参与方............................................................................................................. 39 4.3.2 设置融资结构的原则............................................................................................. 39 4.3.3 融资结构的确定..................................................................................................... 40 4.4 再融资边际成本计算.................................................................................................... 43 4.4.1 计算融资总额分界点............................................................................................. 43 4.4.2 计算资金边际成本................................................................................................. 43 4.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 44 第五章 投资评价指标分析....................................................................................................45 5.1 投资效益分析................................................................................................................ 45 5.2 盈亏平衡分析................................................................................................................ 45 5.3 投资回收期.................................................................................................................... 47 5.3.1 静态投资回收期..................................................................................................... 47 5.3.2 动态投资回收期..................................................................................................... 48 5.3.3 影响因素分析......................................................................................................... 49` V 5.4 杠杆系数分析................................................................................................................ 50 5.4.1 经营杠杆系数......................................................................................................... 51 5.4.2 财务杠杆系数......................................................................................................... 51 5.4.3 综合杠杆系数......................................................................................................... 52 5.5 敏感性分析.................................................................................................................... 53 5.6 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 54 第六章 风险分析和对策........................................................................................................54 6.1 存在风险........................................................................................................................ 54 6.2 应对策略........................................................................................................................ 54 6.2.1 目标人群借贷行为调查......................................................................................... 54 6.2.2 积极引入战略投资，实现主体多元化................................................................. 54 6.2.3 快速集团式扩张..................................................................................................... 54 6.2.4 企业化经营、教育经营多元化............................................................................. 54 6.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 54 结 论......................................................................................................................................54