网页游戏作为一种新兴的在线游戏类型，不需要下载任何客户端，玩家游戏操作时 间极短，能够让玩家在工作学习之余抽空点几下鼠标来缓解压力。本研究报告是网页游 戏《海航世纪》项目的商业计划书，这是一款玩法多样的网页游戏，以玩家熟知的大航 海时代为历史背景，玩家扮演某个航海强国的小船队老板，通过制定贸易计划或战争策 略来实现自己的发展目标，在经营船队的同时，游戏还穿插了政治斗争和军事争夺，让 玩家能够体验到强权年代的尔虞我诈和弱肉强食。作为项目商业计划书，本文不仅要研 究市场环境和竞争状况，同时还要规划本项目的管理制度和进度安排，更要仔细分析财 务状况，最终得出本项目的可行性分析结论。 本文首先研究了网页游戏市场的发展历史，在此基础上详细分析了国内市场的宏观 环境和竞争状态。虽然国内的网页游戏市场发展时间短暂，但是竞争激烈程度已经白热 化了。尽管如此，我们公司如果能抓紧目前仅剩不多的市场空间，尽快推出自己的产品， 在激烈的市场竞争中生存并发展壮大。 其次，本文重点分析了本项目所面对的目标市场，从市场容量、受众数量以及目标 受众的详细分析中，我们发现网页市场的集中度高于其他在线游戏，玩家的平均素质更 加突出。从这些角度出发，本文选定了目标玩家作为项目的主要营销对象。 再次，本文简单分析了本项目产品的设计思路、产品内容以及项目管理基本要素， 这些内容将构成本项目的一个初期规划，在合理的程度上约束项目的未来走向。然后， 从市场营销学的基本理论出发，从市场细分、目标市场选择、产品策略和促销等方面对 本项目进行详细阐述，制定了切实有效的营销策略。 最后，本文对本项目的成本和收益预测做了详细分析，并且使用回收期法和净现值 法对项目的投资可行性做了评估。我们发现本项目的回收期非常短，仅为投资后的一年 多，而净现值也非常高，明显高于可接受的临界水平；这表明本项目的投资可行性。由 此可以看出，网页游戏确实是“低成本，高收益，快速回报”的行业。同时还定性分析 了本项目研发和运营可能遭遇的风险，以确保公司运作的警惕性。 关键词，网页游戏；大航海时代；商业计划书Abstract Being a new style of online game, webgame doesn’t need download any client software and it requires few minutes for players in the game, thus people can entertain themselves during work breaks for refreshments. This research is a business plan for the webgame project “A Century of Nautics”, which is of variety of game styles, based on the history of great nautical century in Europe. Each player in the game plays a role of the boss of a small navy, making his own decision of marketing and warfare. As a business plan, the paper deals with not only the market and competition analysis, but also the financial and investment feasibility. Firstly, it studies the history of webgame market, based on which, it analyses the domestic environment and market competition. Although the market is developed recently, it has been very competitive. Thus our company should grasp the opportunity and introduce our products as soon as possible, so that we can survive in the market and grow up. Secondly, the paper analyses in details the target market from market capacity and consumer number to target consumers. It shows that webgame market is different from other online games for its unique concentration and higher quality. Based on the analysis, we choose some kinds of consumers as marketing targets.. Thirdly, it demonstrates the webgame elements: solution, content and project management. These elements constitute of the basic planning, which constraints the project development direction. Fourthly, it illustrates the marketing rules from the classical marketing theories, and draws up the marketing strategies for the project. Finally, the paper analyses the cost and the benefit thoroughly. Using the methods of the Payback Period and Net Present Value, it shows the webgame project is very profitable and feasible for investment and verifies that the webgame market is really “low cost, high profit, fast payback”. In addition, it analyses Qualitatively the risk management to ensure the project success. Key words: webgame; a century of nautics; business plan目录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. II 图表目录.................................................................................................................................VII 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题的意义 ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景和目的........................................................................................................ 1 1.1.2 研究内容.................................................................................................................... 2 1.1.3 研究方法.................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 文献综述 .......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 商业计划书................................................................................................................ 2 1.2.2 网页游戏的研究........................................................................................................ 3 1.3 报告结构 .......................................................................................................................... 6 第二章 市场环境分析..............................................................................................................7 2.1 产业发展历史.................................................................................................................. 7 2.2 市场竞争分析.................................................................................................................. 8 2.2.1 潜在进入者的威胁.................................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 替代品或服务的威胁................................................................................................ 9 2.2.3 现有竞争者分析........................................................................................................ 9 2.2.4 供应商讨价还价的能力.......................................................................................... 12 2.2.5 顾客讨价还价的能力.............................................................................................. 12 2.2.6 五力模型总结.......................................................................................................... 12 2.3 目标市场分析................................................................................................................ 13 2.3.1 市场容量分析.......................................................................................................... 13 2.3.2 受众数量分析.......................................................................................................... 15 2.3.3 目标受众细节分析.................................................................................................. 15 2.4 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 19 第三章 产品设计介绍............................................................................................................20 3.1 产品设计思路 ................................................................................................................ 203.1.1 玩家对网页游戏的需求.......................................................................................... 20 3.1.2 市场上现有的网页游戏类型和数量...................................................................... 21 3.1.3 我们产品的定位...................................................................................................... 21 3.2《航海世纪》设计介绍 ................................................................................................. 21 3.2.1 游戏背景.................................................................................................................. 21 3.2.2 游戏介绍.................................................................................................................. 22 3.2.3 玩法详解.................................................................................................................. 22 3.2.4 游戏系统设计.......................................................................................................... 23 3.3 服务与支持 .................................................................................................................... 24 3.3.1 收费模式.................................................................................................................. 24 3.3.2 线上与线下活动...................................................................................................... 25 3.4 产品的远期规划 ............................................................................................................ 25 3.4.1 游戏维护和更新...................................................................................................... 25 3.4.2 新游戏的计划和研发.............................................................................................. 25 3.5 软硬件需求 .................................................................................................................... 25 3.5.1 研发组需求.............................................................................................................. 25 3.5.2 产品运营组.............................................................................................................. 26 3.6 项目的 SWOT 分析 ....................................................................................................... 26 3.7 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 27 第四章 项目组织与实施........................................................................................................28 4.1 项目组织架构 ................................................................................................................ 28 4.2 项目团队成员 ................................................................................................................ 28 4.3 项目进度管理 ................................................................................................................ 29 4.3.1 项目进度计划.......................................................................................................... 29 4.3.2 项目进度控制.......................................................................................................... 30 4.4 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 31 第五章 营销策略分析............................................................................................................32 5.1 网页游戏市场营销........................................................................................................ 32 5.2 STP 营销......................................................................................................................... 32 5.2.1 市场细分................................................................................................................. 325.2.2 目标市场的选择..................................................................................................... 33 5.2.3 市场定位................................................................................................................. 33 5.3 营销组合策略................................................................................................................ 33 5.3.1 产品策略................................................................................................................. 33 5.3.2 定价策略................................................................................................................. 34 5.3.3 渠道策略................................................................................................................. 34 5.3.4 促销策略................................................................................................................. 34 5.4 竞争优势 ........................................................................................................................ 35 5.5 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 35 第六章 财务分析....................................................................................................................36 6.1 财务分析前提................................................................................................................ 36 6.2 收入预测........................................................................................................................ 36 6.2.1 完全自主运营......................................................................................................... 36 6.2.2 完全联合运营......................................................................................................... 36 6.2.3 自主运营加联合运营............................................................................................. 37 6.3 成本预测........................................................................................................................ 38 6.3.1 研发成本................................................................................................................. 38 6.3.2 运营成本.................................................................................................................. 39 6.4 利润分析........................................................................................................................ 41 6.5 现金流预测.................................................................................................................... 42 6.6 财务指标分析................................................................................................................ 43 6.6.1 回收期法................................................................................................................. 44 6.6.2 净现值法................................................................................................................. 44 6.7 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 45 第七章 风险管理....................................................................................................................46 7.1 进度延误风险及对策.................................................................................................... 46 7.2 政策风险及对策............................................................................................................ 46 7.3 技术风险及对策............................................................................................................ 47 7.4 团队成员风险及对策.................................................................................................... 47 7.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 48结 论......................................................................................................................................49