随着我国经济水平的快速提高，工程项目的建设量与日俱增，相应的机电设 备采购亦逐渐增多。近年来，我国进一步完善物资采购法律法规，招投标方式己 成为机电设备采购的主要方式，因机电设备具有技术复杂，种类繁多，价值高昂 等特点，采购环节一旦发生问题，将造成不可预知的安全风险和经济损失。因此， 在机电设备采购过程中应以科学的管理方法评估出有效的风险要素，做出必要的 风险应对解决方案。风险管理作为提高项目经济效益的有效手段值得我们去研究 和探讨。 本文将风险管理理论和方法应用在机电设备招标采购过程中从风险识别、风 险评估、风险应对三个层面进行分析。首先，结合机电设备采购发展现状，对国 内外风险管理有关研究成果进行了梳理，以风险管理理论为基础，在风险识别中 利用头脑风暴法和专家调查法总结出风险因素。其次，根据识别结果建立科学的 风险评价体系。运用专家调查法采集机电设备采购风险分析有关数据，结合层次 分析法和模糊层次分析法相关理论，然后通过计算对采购风险要素排序，最后进 行项目整体风险分析。再次，针对机电设备风险要素的特点，合理提出风险应对 措施。本文为需要机电设备采购的其他公司防范和控制采购风险提供了借鉴意义， 为以后类似项目建立历史资料，以备参考，针对机电设备采购的特点，帮助采购 决策者在应对风险管理决策的时候可以有针对性的进行科学管理，以达到较好的 经济效益。 关键词：机电设备；招标采购；风险管理；模糊层次分析法东北石油大学 MBA 学位论文 III Research on Risk Management of Mechanical and Electrical Equipment Purchasing of A Material Company ABSTRACT In recent years, bidding has become the main method of purchasing electromechanical equipment. Because electromechanical equipment has the characteristics of complex technology, various types and high value, once the procurement process occurs, it will cause unpredictable safety risks and economic losses. Therefore, in the procurement process of electromechanical equipment, effective risk factors should be evaluated by scientific management methods, and necessary risk response solutions should be made. With the rapid improvement of China's economic level, the procurement of mechanical and electrical equipment has gradually increased, and risk management as an effective means to improve the economic benefits of the project is worthy of our study and discussion. This paper applies the risk management theory and method to the three aspects of risk identification, risk assessment and risk response in the process of bidding and purchasing of electromechanical equipment. First of all, combined with the development status of electromechanical equipment procurement, by reading the relevant literature on risk management, referring to the research results of other scholars, combined with the work experience of their own procurement workers, using the brainstorming method and expert investigation method to summarize the risk factors in risk identification. Secondly, a scientific risk assessment system is established based on the identification results. The expert survey method is used to collect data related to the procurement risk analysis of electromechanical equipment, combined with the relevant theories of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, and then the procurement risk factors are sorted by calculation, and finally the overall risk analysis of the project is carried out. Thirdly, in response to the characteristics of the risk factors of electromechanical equipment, reasonable countermeasures are proposed. Conduct risk identification, assessment, and response to specific operational procedures around the cases that I have actually worked on in my work, and establish historical data for similar projects in the future for reference. The purpose of this paper is to help procurement decision-makers to conduct targeted scientific management and achieve better economic benefits when dealing with risk management decisions.东北石油大学 MBA 学位论文 IV Key words: Electromechanical equipment; Bidding procurement; Risk management; Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process目 录 V 目 录 学位论文独创性声明.......................................................................................................I 学位论文使用授权声明...................................................................................................I 摘要..............................................................................................................................II ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................. III 第 1 章 绪 论.................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 研究背景 .................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 研究意义 .................................................................................................. 2 1.2 国内外研究现状 ................................................................................................ 3 1.2.1 国外研究现状 .......................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 国内研究现状 .......................................................................................... 3 1.2.3 研究评价 .................................................................................................. 5 1.3 研究内容与研究思路 ........................................................................................ 6 1.3.1 研究内容 .................................................................................................. 6 1.3.2 研究思路 .................................................................................................. 6 第 2 章 相关理论基础.................................................................................................... 8 2.1 风险管理理论 ..................................................................................................... 8 2.1.1 风险管理含义 ........................................................................................... 8 2.1.2 风险管理原则 ........................................................................................... 8 2.1.3 风险识别方法 ........................................................................................... 8 2.1.4 风险评估方法 ......................................................................................... 10 2.2 机电设备采购的相关理论 .............................................................................. 13 2.2.1 机电设备采购的范围 ............................................................................ 13 2.2.2 机电设备采购的特点 ............................................................................ 13 第 3 章 A 物资公司机电设备采购风险识别.............................................................. 15 3.1 A 物资公司机电设备采购概况 ....................................................................... 15 3.1.1 A 物资公司简介 ..................................................................................... 15 3.1.2 A 物资公司机电设备采购流程 ............................................................. 15 3.1.3 A 物资公司机电设备采购方式 ............................................................. 16 3.2 A 物资公司机电设备采购风险识别 ............................................................... 18 3.2.1 风险识别过程 ......................................................................................... 18目 录 VI 3.2.2 风险识别结果 ......................................................................................... 18 第 4 章 A 物资公司机电设备采购风险评价.............................................................. 21 4.1 A 物资公司机电设备采购风险评价体系设计思路 ....................................... 21 4.1.1 指导思想 ................................................................................................. 21 4.1.2 总体目标 ................................................................................................. 21 4.1.3 设计原则 ................................................................................................. 21 4.2 A 物资公司机电设备采购风险评价指标体系构建 ....................................... 23 4.2.1 确定指标体系 ........................................................................................ 23 4.2.2 建立递阶层次结构 ................................................................................ 24 4.2.3 构造判断矩阵 ........................................................................................ 25 4.2.4 确定特征向量 ......................................................................................... 28 4.2.5 进行归一化处理 .................................................................................... 29 4.2.6 判断矩阵的一致性检验 ........................................................................ 30 4.2.7 确定指标权重 ........................................................................................ 31 4.2.8 A 物资公司机电设备采购风险权重分析 ............................................. 34 4.3 模糊综合评价过程 .......................................................................................... 34 4.3.1 确定评语集及标准 ................................................................................ 34 4.3.2 模糊综合评价计算 ................................................................................ 35 4.4 A 物资公司机电设备采购风险综合评价结果分析 ....................................... 38 第 5 章 A 物资公司机电设备采购风险控制措施...................................................... 41 5.1 招标过程管理风险控制措施 .......................................................................... 41 5.1.1 招标公告公开程度风险控制措施 ......................................................... 41 5.1.2 资格审查风险控制措施 ......................................................................... 41 5.1.3 招标人员道德风险控制措施 ................................................................. 41 5.1.4 信息不对称风险控制措施 ..................................................................... 42 5.2 合同风险控制措施 .......................................................................................... 42 5.2.1 合同价格风险控制措施 ........................................................................ 42 5.2.2 汇率及供货延期风险控制措施 ............................................................ 43 5.3 招标决策风险控制措施 .................................................................................. 43 5.3.1 评标技术方法选择风险控制措施 ........................................................ 43 5.3.2 忽视专家意见风险控制措施 ................................................................ 43 5.3.3 招标方式选择风险控制措施 ................................................................ 44 5.4 供应商风险控制措施 ...................................................................................... 44 5.4.1 供应商欺诈行为风险控制措施 ............................................................ 44 5.4.2 供应商相关问题风险控制措施 ............................................................ 44目 录 VII 5.5 其他风险控制措施 .......................................................................................... 45 5.5.1 市场风险控制措施 ................................................................................. 45 5.5.2 社会环境风险控制措施 ......................................................................... 45 结 论............................................................................................................................ 47