项目可行性研究是企业投资决策活动中十分重要的环节。在市场经济条件 下，针对投资项目科学地进行分析和预测，合理地确定投资项目的规模、预测项 目的经济效益，是企业项目投资成功的可靠保障。 本文从北方化工股份有限公司的经营现状及国家化肥产业政策入手，对其南 疆大化肥装置增产节能改造项目进行可行性论证。 南疆大化肥装置是利用二手设备搬迁建设的。为增加企业竞争力，利用当地 丰富的低价天然气资源，依托国家淘汰落后技术、在富资源地区建设化肥装置等 产业政策，借鉴国内外大化肥改造的成功经验，结合设备更新对老装置进行增产 50%改造，能耗降低至国内先进水平，增量效益显著，实施后将填补北方公司由 于辽河化肥厂原料不足造成的减产损失，带动北方公司整体效益增长。 本文定量与定性分析结合、动态与静态分析结合，对相关社会、经济、技术 等方面进行深入调查，对项目的市场预测、技术方案和建设方案、投资估算和资 金筹措、成本估算、销售收入和税金估算等进行了研究论证，编制了项目财务报 表，分析投资回收期、净现值、财务内部收益率等相关财务指标，并通过财务评 价得出项目可行的结论。本文还用盈亏平衡分析法和敏感性分析法对项目的不确 定因素和风险因素进行分析，为企业对本项目的决策立项提供科学客观的依据。 关键词， 改造； 增产； 可行性； 财务评价Abstract The project feasibility study is a very important part for the enterprise investment decision. Under the market economy, scientifically analyzing and forecasting the project investments, reasonably determining the scales of investment projects and forecasting the economic benefits of the project which could help the enterprise get guarantee of success . In this paper, we analyze and demonstrate the feasibility of the Nanjiang large chemical fertilizer unit energy saving transformation project from the current management situation of the North Chemical Company and the national policy of the chemical fertilizer industry. Nanjiang large chemical fertilizer device is constructed by the transferred second-hand equipments. To increase the competitiveness of enterprises and to use the local rich natural gas resources fully, relying on the national policy of eliminating the backward technology and building fertilizer plant in the resource-rich areas; learning from the successful experiences of large chemical fertilizer transformation both at home and abroad ,making the old device transformation yield increased 50% with equipment update and reduce energy consumption to the advanced level investment in the domestic and getting the remarkably benefit which could fill the material loss reduction by the Liaohe fertilizer of the North company and get the overall effectively economic growth for the company. In this paper we combined with quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis and also combined with dynamic analysis and static analysis, meticulously investigated the social, economic and technical aspects of the project. We also carefully estimated and compared the project's market forecasts, technology solutions and building programs, investment estimation and funding, cost estimates, estimates of revenue and taxes. We established the basic financial statements of the project and analyzed the payback period of the investment, net present value, internal rate of return and other relevant financial indicators and also made a financial evaluation. This paper also discussed the project uncertainty and risk by means of break even analysis andsensitivity analysis which could provide the enterprise scientific decision-making objectively. Key words: Transformation, Incaease production, Feasibility, Financial evaluation目 录 第一章 绪论..................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景和研究意义.......................................................................................1 1.1.1 选题背景.................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义.................................................................................................2 1.2 研究思路和方法...............................................................................................3 1.2.1 研究思路.................................................................................................3 1.2.2 研究方法.................................................................................................3 1.3 本文的创新之处...............................................................................................5 第二章 项目可行性研究基本知识..............................................................................6 2.1 项目可行性研究的发展...................................................................................6 2.2 项目可行性研究的作用...................................................................................6 2.3 项目可行性研究的程序...................................................................................7 2.4 项目可行性研究的内容...................................................................................8 第三章 南疆大化肥装置增产节能改造项目市场分析和方案设计........................10 3.1 项目概述.........................................................................................................10 3.1.1 项目提出背景.......................................................................................10 3.1.2 项目建设的意义...................................................................................10 3.1.3 项目建设的规模和范围....................................................................... 11 3.1.4 项目建设的基本要求...........................................................................12 3.2 市场分析和价格分析.....................................................................................12 3.2.1 市场现状分析.......................................................................................13 3.2.2 市场预测分析.......................................................................................17 3 2.3 市场价格分析 ....................................................................................18 3.3 建设方案.........................................................................................................21 3.3.1 建设条件..............................................................................................21 3.3.2 合成氨装置改造方案...........................................................................22 3.3.3 尿素装置改造方案...............................................................................26 3.3.4 厂区平面布置......................................................................................29 3.4 辅助工程、公用工程和其它.........................................................................29 3.4.1 循环水系统...........................................................................................29 .3.4.2 供电......................................................................................................30 3.4.3 消防设施...............................................................................................30 3.4.4 厂内道路..............................................................................................31 3.4.5 节能措施...............................................................................................31 3.4.6 环境保护...............................................................................................32 3.4.7 劳动安全卫生.......................................................................................33 3.4.8 企业经营体制和组织机构...................................................................35 3.4.9 企业定员...............................................................................................35 3.4.10 人员培训.............................................................................................35 3.5 投资估算及资金筹措....................................................................................35 3.5.1 总投资估算..........................................................................................35 3.5.2 投资分析..............................................................................................35 3.5.3 资金筹措..............................................................................................36 第四章 评价原则与指标体系..................................................................................37 4.1 评价原则.........................................................................................................37 4.1.1 一般评价原则.......................................................................................37 4.1.2 特殊评价原则.......................................................................................37 4.2 评价指标体系.................................................................................................38 4.2.1 评价指标概述.......................................................................................38 4.2.2 南疆大化肥增产节能改造项目可行性研究指标体系的建立...........38 4.2.3 经济评价指标体系..............................................................................38 第五章 经济评价......................................................................................................43 5.1 社会评价.........................................................................................................43 5.2 财务评价.........................................................................................................43 5.2.1 评价依据...............................................................................................43 5.2.2 基础数据..............................................................................................43 5.2.3 财务盈利能力分析...............................................................................47 5.2.4 清偿能力分析......................................................................................47 5.2.5 不确定性分析......................................................................................48 5.3 评价结论.........................................................................................................49 结 论............................................................................................................................51