可行性研究是提高项目投资决策科学性必不可少的工作，对促进企业合理利 用资源、提升竞争能力具有重要作用，对企业本身及国民经济的可持续发展有着 重要的意义。 随着国民经济的不断发展，我国对能源的需求与日俱增，特别是随着汽车业 的飞速发展，我国对石油的依赖越来越大，我国能源总的特征是“富煤，贫油、 乏气”，如何充分利用我国富煤的特点降低对石油的严重依赖是关系到我国能源安 全的战略问题。由于二甲醚具有优良的燃料性能，方便、清洁、十六烷值高、动 力性能好、污染少、稍加压即为液体，易贮存，可作为车用的替代燃料及代替石 油液化气作燃料，因此以煤为源头制造甲醇进而制造二甲醚可以减少我国对石油 的依赖程度，大力发展二甲醚项目对加强我国的能源安全具有极为重要的战略意 义。本文按照项目管理的规范，采用财务分析的相关理论针对笔者所在公司项目 南京汉能二甲醚项目的投资进行财务可行性分析，为企业的投资决策提供参考。 本文首先介绍项目财务分析的相关理论与方法，在这一部分重点介绍了资金 的时间价值、折现率的确定、静态分析和动态分析相结合的财务分析方法以及各 项财务分析指标的含义及优缺点。在理论简介的基础上，本文对南京汉能二甲醚 项目进行了财务可行性研究的实例分析。实例分析第一部分是南京汉能二甲醚项 目概况，主要介绍了项目的基本情况、产品方案、采用的工艺技术并针对二甲醚 进行了市场需求分析和价格分析；第二部分是项目基础数据的估算如投资估算、 销售收入估算、成本费用的估算以及三大财务报表的编制；第三部分对南京汉能 二甲醚项目进行了较为完整的盈利能力分析和偿债能力分析，重点分析了财务净 现值、内部收益率、投资回收期及投资利润率，作出了相应的财务评价；实例分 析的最后部分采用盈亏平衡分析法和敏感性分析法对项目进行了不确定性分析， 另外在本部分还对项目存在的风险进行了分析并提出了相应的应对措施，以提高 该项目财务评价的可靠性和决策的科学性。 研究结果表明，南京汉能二甲醚项目能在预定的时间内收回成本并带来可观 的经济效益，因此，从财务指标看，该项目是积极可行的，值得进行投资。 关键词，二甲醚项目、可行性研究、财务评价、风险分析II Abstract Feasibility study is a necessary work for enhancing the validity of project investment decision-making, playing an important role to promote resource utility and market competitiveness, meaning great to the sustainable development of the corporation itself and domestic economy. As the domestic economy developing, the country’s energy demand grows. Especially as the car industrial development speeding up, the dependence on the petroleum grows bigger and bigger. The domestic energy has the characters of “rich coal, poor oil, lacking gas”, so how to make full use of the rich coal to in order to reduce the heavy lean becomes a strategic problem about our country’s energy safety. Thanks to the fuel ability of DME (dimethyl ether) – convenience, cleanness, high cetane, good drive power, little pollution, easy to become liquid, easy stock – DME can be used as replacement of car fuel and liquefied petroleum gas. In this case, producing DME by making methanol from coal can reduce the lean on petroleum. This article analyzes the finance feasibility of Nanjing Hanneng DME Project, from the corporation of the writer works in, using the finance analytic theory, providing reference for corporation. This article firstly introduces finance analytic theory and method, emphasizing time value of the fund, confirmation of discount rate, static and dynamic combinative method, definitions, merits and demerits of finance index. Based on the theory explanation, this article takes the instance of Nanjing Hanneng DME Project, analyzing its finance feasibility. Instance analysis contains three parts: the first part explains the project, including basic information, product scheme, technics and report on market demand and price for DME; the second part brings forth estimates on investment, sales income, cost expense, and edit of the three finance reports; the third part exams the earning capability and debt-repaying capability of this project, mainly studying net present value, interior yield, payback period and profit margin, and giving corresponding finance evaluation. The uncertainty analysis is made at the end of the instance segment, by means of breakeven analysis and sensitivity analysis. In addition,III this part also assesses the project risk and offers response measure, so as to increase the reliability of finance estimate and the correctness of decision. According to the research, Nanjing Hanneng DME Project can recover the cost in the due time, and bring in considerable benefit. This project is feasible and worthwhile by checking the finance index. Key words: DME project, feasibility study, finance evaluation, risk assessment.IV 目 录 第一章 引 言................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 选题背景及研究意义 ............................................................................................ 1 1.2 本文研究思路与框架 ............................................................................................ 2 1.2.1 本文研究思路 ................................................................................................. 2 1.2.2 本文基本框架 ................................................................................................. 3 1.3 课题研究的特色与不足 ........................................................................................ 3 1.3.1 课题研究的特色 ............................................................................................. 3 1.3.2 课题研究的不足 ............................................................................................. 3 第二章 财务可行性研究的相关文献与理论分析...................................................... 5 2.1 国内外研究现状 .................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 国外研究现状 ................................................................................................. 5 2.1.2 国内研究现状 ................................................................................................. 6 2.1.3 二甲醚研究现状 ............................................................................................. 7 2.2 财务可行性研究的主要方法 ................................................................................ 8 2.2.1 资金的时间价值理论 ..................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 财务可行性研究的主要方法 ....................................................................... 10 2.3 项目财务分析的主要内容 ...................................................................................11 2.3.1 财务盈利能力分析 ........................................................................................11 2.3.2 财务偿债能力分析 ....................................................................................... 14 2.4 项目风险分析相关理论 ...................................................................................... 15 2.4.1 项目风险分析识别 ....................................................................................... 15 2.4.2 项目风险应对策略 ........................................................................................ 17 第三章 南京汉能 20 万吨二甲醚项目概况.............................................................. 20 3.1 南京汉能 20 万吨二甲醚项目简介 .................................................................... 20 3.2 产品方案 .............................................................................................................. 20 3.3 项目采用工艺技术 .............................................................................................. 20 3.4 项目市场分析 ...................................................................................................... 22 3.4.1 市场需求 ....................................................................................................... 22V 3.4.2 价格分析 ....................................................................................................... 23 第四章 南京汉能 20 万吨二甲醚项目财务可行性分析.......................................... 27 4.1 投资估算 .............................................................................................................. 27 4.1.1 建设投资估算 ............................................................................................... 27 4.1.2 流动资金估算 ............................................................................................... 29 4.1.3 融资方案 ....................................................................................................... 30 4.1.4 建设期利息估算 ........................................................................................... 30 4.2 销售收入估算 ...................................................................................................... 30 4.3 成本费用的估算 .................................................................................................. 31 4.3.1 成本费用估算参数说明 ............................................................................... 31 4.3.2 成本费用估算 ............................................................................................... 32 4.4 利润表估算 .......................................................................................................... 34 4.5 现金流量表估算 .................................................................................................. 34 4.6 资产负债表估算 .................................................................................................. 34 4.7 财务盈利能力分析 .............................................................................................. 34 4.7.1 静态分析 ....................................................................................................... 34 4.7.2 动态分析 ....................................................................................................... 35 4.8 财务偿债能力分析 .............................................................................................. 37 4.8.1 借款偿还期 ................................................................................................... 37 4.8.2 资产负债率 ................................................................................................... 37 4.8.3 流动比率 ....................................................................................................... 38 4.8.4 速动比率 ........................................................................................................ 38 第五章 南京汉能 20 万吨二甲醚项目风险分析...................................................... 39 5.1 财务不确定性分析 .............................................................................................. 39 5.1.1 盈亏平衡分析 ............................................................................................... 39 5.1.2 敏感性分析 ................................................................................................... 41 5.2 项目风险分析识别及应对措施 .......................................................................... 43 5.2.1 政策风险 ........................................................................................................ 43 5.2.2 社会风险 ....................................................................................................... 43 5.2.3 自然环境风险 ............................................................................................... 43 5.2.4 经营风险 ....................................................................................................... 44 5.2.5 技术风险 ....................................................................................................... 44VI 5.2.6 管理风险 ....................................................................................................... 44 5.2.7 生产风险 ....................................................................................................... 44 5.2.8 安全风险 ....................................................................................................... 44 结 论......................................................................................................................................................46 致谢..................................................................................................................................................47