中国作为一个工业承载基础薄弱又处于后发劣势的发展中国家，需要一个像 房地产行业那样能大范围带动经济尤其是落后地区经济的支柱型产业。房地产行 业对国民经济的影响，主要体现在拉动经济与稳定经济的重要性。对房地产开发 项目进行可行性研究，可以帮助项目开发公司确定项目是否应该投资和如何投资 等结论性意见，为决策部门最终决策提供可靠的、科学的依据，并作为开展下一 步工作的基础。 本文以中新天津生态城第六号地块项目为例，从该项目所处的市场环境开始 分析，结合一系列的数据和趋势分析，勾勒出滨海新区发展的现状及未来的发展 蓝图。再结合国家与天津市近年来出台的一系列与土地和房地产相关的法律法 规，分析了宏观经济与相关政策对本项目的影响。并采用 SWOT 分析等技术手 段，详细分析了本项目的优势、劣势、机遇与挑战。最后在市场调研的基础上， 对本项目进行市场定位。 同时，进行了项目的财务分析，包括投资成本估算和收益分析。首先对与项 目相关的各项技术经济数据进行采集和估算，编制本项目的现金流量表等财务报 表，然后通过对上述报表进行分析来评价项目的盈利能力、偿债能力以及抗风险 能力。最后进行了项目的开发风险分析，论述可能的项目风险以及如何预防项目 风险，并通过盈亏平衡分析和敏感性分析，力图对项目风险进行合理的评估。 报告的研究目的是希望通过对该项目的可行性研究对该项目的未来开发建 设过程起到一定的实际作用。 关键词： 房地产，可行性，财务评价，风险分析2 ABSTRACT As a developing country with weak industrial base and late development, China requests pillar industries which can spur the economy development, especially in backward area. Real estate industry, as one of pillar industries, influences on the national economy by mainly reflecting in its importance on pushing economy development forward steadily. The feasibility study on real estate projects can help the project companies to decide if they should invest and how to invest. This conclusion can offer reliable and scientific evidences, also the foundation of following works. This paper takes Plot 6 in SSTEC for instance, makes analysis of market environment, based on a series of datum and trends analysis, thus outline the present status and master plan of TBNA. Then, we combine the recent laws and regulations issued by the State Council and local government to analysis the impact of macro economy and relevant policies. In addition, SWOT analysis is adopted to analysis the Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threat of this project. On the basis of market research, we make the market position for this project. At the same time, we do the project financial analysis, including investment cost analysis and revenue analysis. The related technical economy data are collected and calculated to be used in the financial spreadsheets in this project. These financial spreadsheets will be the basis of evaluate the profitability, solvency and risk resistance ability of this project. In the end, we do the risk analysis to discuss potential risks and how to prevent them. And try to make a reasonable evaluation on the project by break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis. The study purpose of this paper is aiming at make this feasibility study have practical meaning for project’s future development. KEY WORDS：Real Estate, Feasibility, Financial Evaluation, Risk Analysis3 目 录 第一章 绪论1 1.1 报告选题背景.....1 1.2 报告研究意义.....2 1.3 报告研究目标.....3 1.4 报告主要结构.....3 第二章 理论综述.4 2.1 项目可行性研究的理论 .......4 2.2 项目可行性研究的方法 .......6 第三章 中新天津生态城第六号地块项目市场研究........8 3.1 投资背景分析.....8 3.2 市场环境分析...14 3.3 项目 SWOT 分析........17 第四章 中新天津生态城第六号地块项目市场定位 .....20 4.1 形象定位..20 4.2 产品定位..20 4.3 规划定位..21 4.4 客群定位..22 第五章 投资成本估算和收益分析.......23 5.1 项目投资概况...23 5.2 项目投资估算...23 5.3 项目销售收入测算....27 5.4 项目经济效益分析....31 第六章 开发风险分析34 6.1 房地产投资风险分析34 6.2 不确定性分析...36 第七章 结论及建议....394 7.1 结论.39 7.2 建议.39