| FOCUS 08/10/2018 2
Treasury and SAS issuance calendar
G10 INTEREST RATES
Agne Stengeryte, Europe Rates Strategist | BNP Paribas London Branch
Fig. 1: Long-term supply schedule
Fig. 2: Short-term eurozone
supply schedule
Fig. 3: Next week's eurozone coupons
and redemption payments
Sources: National treasuries, BNP Paribas Sources: National treasuries, BNP Paribas
Sources: National treasuries, BNP Paribas
Redemptions
Date Country Details Amount
12/10 Germany OBL 1.0%EUR 17.0bn
Total Eurozone Long-term Redemption EUR 17bn
Coupons
Country Amount
Germany EUR 0.2bn
Italy EUR 0.3bn
Portugal EUR 0.0bn
Total Long-term Coupon Payments EUR 0.5bn
Date Day Closing Country Issues Details BNPP forecasts
Local GMT
09/10 Tue 11:30 09:30 Germany BUNDei 0.1% 15 Apr 2026 EUR 0.5bn
Neths DSL 2.75% 15 Jan 2047 EUR 0.5-1bn
10/10 Wed 11:30 09:30 Germany Bund 15 Aug 2028 EUR 3bn
11:00 09:00 Norway NGB 2% 24 May 2023 NOK 3bn
Denmark Exchange Offer DGB 9 Oct
13:00 17:00 US Note 2.875% 15 Oct 2021 (new) USD 36bn
Note 2.875% 15 Aug 2028 USD 23bn
10:30 09:30 Portugal PGB 2.125% 17 Oct 2028 EUR 0.75-1bn
11/10 Thu 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 20 Sep 2048 JPY 0.7tn
11:00 09:00 Italy BTPs 8 Oct EUR 5-8bn
11:00 09:00 Sweden ILB 0.125% 1 Jun 2032 SEK 0.5bn
13:00 17:00 US Note 3% 15 Aug 2048 USD 15bn
16/10 Tue 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 5-year 9 Oct
11:30 09:30 Germany Schatz 11 Sep 2020 EUR 4bn
17/10 Wed 11:30 09:30 Germany Bund 2.5% 4 Jul 2044 EUR 1.5bn
11:00 09:00 Sweden Bond 10 Oct
18/10 Thu 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 20-year 11 Oct
10:30 08:30 Spain Bond 12 Oct EUR 3-5bn
10:50 08:50 France OAT (medium-term & index-linked) 12 Oct EUR 6-9bn
13:00 17:00 US Note 30-year 11 Oct
23/10 Tue Japan JGB 5-15.5y (auction for enhanced liquidity) 16 Oct
Neths DSL 0.75% 15 Jul 2028 EUR 1.5-2.5bn
13:00 17:00 US Note 2-year (new) 18 Oct
24/10 Wed 11:30 09:30 Germany OBL 13 Oct 2023 EUR 3bn
10:15 08:15 Denmark DGB 19 Oct
13:00 17:00 US Note 2-year (FRN) (new) 18 Oct
Note 5-year (new) 18 Oct
25/10 Thu 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 2-year 18 Oct
11:00 09:00 Sweden ILB 18 Oct
13:00 17:00 US Note 7-year (new) 18 Oct
26/10 Fri 11:00 09:00 Italy BTPs (CTZ/BTPei) 23 OctEUR 3-5bn
30/10 Tue 11:00 10:00 Italy BTPs 25 OctEUR 5-8bn
31/10 Wed 11:00 10:00 Norway NGB 29 Oct
11:00 10:00 Sweden Bond 24 Oct
Denmark Exchange Offer DGB 30 Oct
Date Country Issues Details
05/10 Japan T-Bill Jan 2019 JPY 4.3bn
08/10 France BTF 9 Jan 2019
BTF 13 Mar 2019
BTF 11 Sep 2019
EUR 2.5-2.9bn
EUR 0.6-1bn
EUR 0.5-0.9bn
Germany T-Bill Apr 2019 (new) EUR 3bn
09/10 Japan T-Bill Apr 2019 JPY 2.3bn
Spain Letras Apr 2019 EUR 4-5bn
Letras Oct 2019
Belgium TC Sep 2019 EUR 0.9-1.3bn
US T-Bills Nov 2018 (new) USD 40bn
T-Bills Jan 2019 (new) USD 48bn
T-Bills Apr 2019 (new) USD 42bn
T-Bills Oct 2019 (new) USD 26bn
10/10 Italy BOT Oct 2019 EUR 6bn
12/10 Japan T-Bill Jan 2019 JPY 4.28bn
| FOCUS 08/10/2018 3
Treasury and SAS issuance calendar
G10 INTEREST RATES
Agne Stengeryte, Europe Rates Strategist | BNP Paribas London Branch
Fig. 4: Supply pipeline Fig. 5: Gross/net EGB supply with/without PSPP (EUR bn)
Sources: National treasuries, BNP Paribas Sources: National treasuries, BNP Paribas
Fig. 6: EGB gross supply breakdown by country
(EUR bn, 10y equivalent)
Fig. 7: EGB gross supply breakdown by maturity
(EUR bn, 10y equivalent)
Sources: National treasuries, BNP Paribas Sources: National treasuries, BNP Paribas
We expect European government bond supply to amount to
EUR12bn from EUR17bn this week. There will be EUR 17bn of
redemptions (OBL 1% 12 Oct 2018) and less than EUR1bn of
coupon payments in Germany, Italy and Portugal, limiting net cash
to EUR-6bn.
Next week, Germany will auction EUR 0.5bn of
BUNDei 0.1% 15 Apr 2026 on Tuesday. Same day, the
Netherlands will reopen EUR 0.5-1bn of DSL 2.75% 15 Jan 2047.
On Wednesday, Germany will sell EUR 3bn of
Bund 0.25% 15 Aug 2028 and Portugal will auction EUR 0.75-1bn
of 2.125% 17 Oct 2028 PGBs. On Thursday, Italy will auction
BTPs.
Outside the eurozone, the US will auction USD74bn of notes
throughout the week. Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Japan will
also issue bonds in the week ahead.
-40
-30
-20
-101030
Week starting
GrossRedemptions
CouponsNet Cash
Net Cash - PSPP
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
22/10/201815/10/201808/10/201801/10/201826101418
2y3y5y7y10y15y20y30yLinkers
22/10/201815/10/201808/10/201801/10/2018
| FOCUS 08/10/2018 4
GER FRA
FIN
NET
AUS BEL
SPA
POR
ITA
IRE
y = 1.6438x2 + 3.2893x - 44.467
R = 0.7982
-100
-5050
100
150
200
250
01234567891011y A
SW
(b
p)
Average Rating between S&P / Moody's / Fitch
Eurozone credit rating calendar
G10 INTEREST RATES
Agne Stengeryte, Europe Rates Strategist | BNP Paribas London Branch
Fig. 1: Current rating and outlook, next review date and last change in rating/outlook*
Sources: BNP Paribas, S&P, Moody’s, Fitch, DBRS.
* We assign a ±1 per notch for an upgrade/downgrade, a ±0.25 for a change in the outlook (negative/positive) and ± 0.50 for a credit-watch (insertion/removal).
Fig. 4: Latest rating updates: Fig. 5: Upcoming reviews:
Sources: BNP Paribas, Fitch, Moody’s, S&P, DBRS. Sources: BNP Paribas, Fitch, Moody’s,S&P, DBRS.
Fig. 2: 10y ASW versus ratings score* mapping (bp) Fig. 3: Rich/cheap indicator* (bp)
Sources: BNP Paribas, S&P, Moody’s, Fitch.
* We use quadratic best-fit line for our 10y ASW versus ratings score mapping and rich/cheap indicator.
Sources: BNP Paribas, S&P, Moody’s, Fitch.
* We assign a score of 1 to AAA, 2 to AA+, 3 to AA, …, 9 to BBB, 10 to BBB-, so anything above 10 is below investment grade
RatingOutlookNext ReviewLastRatingOutlookNext ReviewLastRatingOutlookNext ReviewLastRatingOutlookNext ReviewLast
GermanyAAAStable26-Oct0.00AaaStable0.00AAAStable0.00AAAStable07-Dec0.00
FinlandAA+Stable0.00Aa1Stable19-Oct0.00AA+Positive0.25AA-HStable0.00
NetherlandsAAAStable16-Nov0.00AaaStable0.00AAAStable26-Oct0.00AAAStable0.00
AustriaAA+Stable0.00Aa1Stable16-Nov0.00AA+Positive0.25AAAStable0.00
FranceAAStable05-Oct0.00Aa2Positive26-Oct0.25AAStable0.00AAAStable09-Nov0.00
BelgiumAAStable0.00Aa3Stable19-Oct0.00AA-Stable30-Nov0.00AA-HStable0.00
ItalyBBBStable26-Oct0.00Baa2Negative-0.50BBBNegative-0.25BBB-HStable0.00
IrelandA+Stable30-Nov0.00A2Stable05-Oct0.00A+Stable14-Dec0.00A-HStable0.00
SpainA-Positive0.00Baa1Stable05-Oct1.00A-Stable1.00AStable0.00
PortugalBBB-Positive0.25Ba1Positive12-Oct0.00BBBStable30-Nov0.00BBBStable12-Oct1.00
GreeceB+Positive0.25B3Positive0.00BB-Stable2.00B-HPositive02-Nov2.00
FitchMoody'sS&PDBRS
14 Sep: Portugal’s outlook upgraded to positive (S&P).
31 Aug: Italy’s outlook downgraded to negative (Fitch).
10 Aug: Greece’s rating upgraded to BB-, outlook stable
(Fitch).
3 Aug: Finland’s outlook upgraded to positive (Fitch).
20 Jul: Austria’s outlook upgraded to positive (Fitch).
20 Jul: Greece’s outlook upgraded to positive (S&P).
25 Jun: Greece’s rating upgraded to B+, outlook stable (S&P).
4 May: Greece’s rating upgraded to B-H, outlook positive
(DBRS). France’s outlook upgraded to positive (Moody’s).
20 Apr: Portugal’s rating upgraded to BBB, outlook stable
(DBRS).
5 October:
France (S&P)
Spain, Ireland (Moody’s)
12 October:
Portugal (Moody’s, DBRS)
19 October:
Belgium, Finland (Moody’s)
26 October:
Germany, Italy (S&P)
Neths (Fitch)
France (Moody’s)
2 November:
Greece (DBRS)
9 November:
France (DBRS)
16 November:
Netherlands (S&P)
Austria (Moody’s)
30 November:
Ireland (S&P)
Belgium, Portugal (Fitch)
7 December:
Germany (DBRS)
14 December:
Ireland (Fitch)
-80-60-40-20020406080
GER
FRA
FIN
NET
AUS
BEL
SPA
POR
ITA
IRE
Rich vs rating Cheap vs rating。