Please refer to important information
at the end of this report
SOUTH AFRICA 2019
ELECTION TRACKER
EM RESEARCH
23 January 2019
Nicholas Borain, Senior political analyst for SSA
Jeffrey Schultz, Senior economist
BNP Paribas South Africa branch
每日免费获取报告
1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；
2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；
3、每周分享经济学人
4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者
所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。
扫一扫二维码
关注公号
回复：研究报告
加入“起点财经”微信群。。
2
POLLS AND SCENARIOS
01
PARTIES
POLITICAL FRAMEWORK
ELECTORATE
South Africa is undergoing major demographic shifts and we think party
support is hard to assess ahead of May’s general election.
There looks to be a growing consensus that a strong victory for the African
National Congress would give President Cyril Ramaphosa the mandate to
reform more rapidly.
We think that while the polls are indicating a comfortable victory for the
ANC, party divisions will make it harder for President Ramaphosa to take
decisive action on policy issues, especially undoing damage to state
institutions and state-owned companies.
As well as presenting our scenario analysis and the latest polls, the first
edition of our Election Tracker for South Africa includes a political primer
on the relevant background and key issues.
CONTENTS KEY MESSAGES
02
03
04
KEY ISSUES
AND GLOSSARY 04
3
POLLS AND SCENARIOS
Opinion polls ……………..………………………..…….4
Party leaders’ favourability ratings .……………...……5
BNP Paribas scenario analysis …..………….……...6