China’s Evolving
Nuclear Deterrent
Major Drivers and Issues for
the United States
Eric Heginbotham, Michael S. Chase, Jacob L. Heim, Bonny Lin,
Mark R. Cozad, Lyle J. Morris, Christopher P. Twomey, Forrest E. Morgan,
Michael Nixon, Cristina L. Garafola, Samuel K. Berkowitz
CORPORATION
每日免费获取报告
1、每日微信群内分享5+最新重磅报告；
2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；
3、每周分享经济学人
4、每月汇总500+份当月重磅报告
（增值服务）
扫一扫二维码
或加微信：qidian-j加入“起点财经”1-
040微信群，已有微信群的不用重复添加
备注：研究报告
Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND
intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication
online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is
unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of
its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit
rand/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help
make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is
nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.
RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.
Support RAND
Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at
rand/giving/contribute
rand
For more information on this publication, visit rand/t/RR1628
Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.
R is a registered trademark.
Cover: REUTERS/Andy Wong/Pool.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication.
ISBN: 978-0-8330-9646-3
iii
Preface
Since its frst nuclear test in October 1964, China has maintained a modest nuclear
force to achieve limited deterrence goals. In many ways, China’s limited nuclear
arsenal and restrained posture have made it an outlier in the nuclear world. In recent
years, however, new trends have turned China’s outlier status on its head; while the
established nuclear states, especially the United States and Russia, have reduced their
nuclear inventories, China has increased the numbers of its strategic missiles and war-
heads and dramatically improved the quality of its force. Understanding the future of
China’s nuclear forces, doctrine, and policy is critical to shaping an appropriate U.S.
approach to strategic issues.
Tis report examines the key drivers, including both external and internal forces,
that will shape Chinese nuclear decisionmaking over the next ten years. While it pays
particular attention to China’s strategic relationship with the United States, which
remains Beijing’s primary focus in formulating policy, it also considers the role that
developments in third countries might play—a topic other studies have seldom treated
and never systematically. In this context, China’s emergent nuclear relationship with
India and dynamics on the South Asian subcontinent are likely to be particularly
important. Te analysis of internal drivers addresses the potential impacts of bureau-
cratic politics, organizational processes, and the availability of resources. Tis research
should be of interest to nuclear specialists, Asian foreign policy and security experts,
policymakers, military ofcers, and anyone interested in Chinese or nuclear issues.
Te work was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND
Project AIR FORCE. Te draft report was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S.
Air Force subject-matter experts.
RAND Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S.
Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses.
PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives afecting
the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future
air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Moderniza-
tion and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management;
ivChina’s Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Major Drivers and Issues for the United States
and Strategy and Doctrine. Te research reported here was prepared under contract
FA7014-06-C-0001.
Additional information about PAF is available on our website:
rand/paf/
。。。以上简介无排版格式，详细内容请下载查看