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为提高公安机关应对辖区社会治安管理能力和水平，通过学习和借鉴国内外流动人口
管理先进经验，结合国内流动人口管理研究及流动人口与犯罪研究，在 CBE 区外来流动人
口持续流入，社会治安日趋复杂情况下，分析该区域流动人口管理现状及存在问题，结合
该地区未来流动人口预测及社会治安案件预测，从调查社会治安状况复杂的主要因素入
手，通过问卷调查，对问卷信度和效度分析后，采取科学方法建立模型对调查数据进行处
理，分析讨论各因素对社会治安影响力大小，综合评判流动人口社会治安复杂的根本原因
并提出对策与建议。研究结果表明：第一，社会治安复杂的原因要素中，A6 重点人员管
控不到位的原因要素以 1.4319 占据首位，A2 流动人口管理和教育不到位的原因要素以
0.7866 位居其次，A4 打击违法犯罪不到位原因要素以 0.3643 位居第三名；第二，两抢一
盗侵财类案件高发的结果要素 1.5021 是最高的，街头扒窃、绺窃、抢劫、抢夺案件高发
的结果要素以 0.7293 位居其次，吸、贩毒人员对社会治安影响的结果要素以 0.3514 位居
第三位；第三，导致社会治安复杂的主要原因是流动人口管理不到位和打击违法犯罪不到
位，各类案件高发只是治安状况复杂后的结果和表象。为此，结合 CBE 分局流动人口管理
实际，运用信息化管理，建立流动人口动态管控体系，全面提升流动人口管理水平，通过
管控体系强化流动人口管理，提升违法犯罪打击效能。采取强化流动人口的信息化管理和
预警工作，加强情报网络建设，强化信息分析与研判，强化预案制定和演练工作，全面实
施流动人口网格化管理工作的对策建议
【关 键 词】流动人口管理、社会治安、动态管控、网格化管理、预警、预案
【研究类型】基础研究Abstract
II
Tiltle: Analysis on the influencing factors of social security by
floating population and research on relevant countermeasures
in CBE
Major: Business Management
Name: Yicheng Wang Signature: ______________
Supervisor: Prof.Yi Yang Signature:_____________ _
Abstract
With the continued flow of migrants in CBE district, the number of cases and alarms
increased year by year，a large number of poor management of the floating population has led to
an increase in social security problems, the public security organs are subjected to various
conditions, not enough to crack down on illegal crime of the floating population, so crime cases
continue to increase, the regional social security situation is becoming increasingly complex.
To improve the public security organs to deal with the area of social management capacity
and level, by studying and drawing on the advanced experience of from foreign and domestic
mobile population management advanced experience, combined with domestic floating
population management research and floating population and crime research, in the CBE area
outside the floating population continued inflow, social security increasingly complex
circumstances, analyze the current situation and existing problems of floating population
management in the region, combined with the future forecast of the floating population in the
region and the prediction of social security cases. Based on the investigation of the main factors
of the social security situation, analyzed the questionnaire reliability and validity, and then uses
the scientific method to establish the model to analyze the survey data, analyze and discuss the
influence of various factors on the influence of social security, the root causes of the complex
social security of the floating population and put forward countermeasures and suggestions. The
conclusion shows that: first, the reasons for the complexity of social security elements, A6 key
personnel controlled is not in place for the element of 1.4319, made the highest; A2 floating
population management and education is not in well condition for the element of 0.7866,
ranked second; A4 the fighting against crime is not done well for the element of 0.3643, ranked
third. Second, the results of the elements, the robbery and theft case on a high incidence of
financial element of 1.5021, the highest; Street pickpocketing, stepping theft, robbery case on
high level for the element of 0.7293, ranked second; the factors influencing the effect of drug
traffickers on social order are 0.3514, occupied the third, the main reasons for the complexity of西安理工大学工商管理硕士学位论文
III
social security are the floating population management is not in place and fighting against crime
does’t well done, the high incidence of various cases is only the results of the complex security
situation and appearance. Therefore, combined with the actual situation of CBE Police Bureau,
by using of information management, establish a dynamic management system for floating
population, comprehensively enhance the management level of floating population,
strengthening the management of floating population through dynamic control system, utilizing
the management system to strengthen the management of floating population, enhancing the
effectiveness of illegal and criminal action. Finally, the suggested solutions to the problems are
put forward: To strengthen the information management and early warning of the floating
population, strengthen the construction of information network, strengthen the information
analysis and research, strengthening the plan preparation and exercise, the full implementation
of the floating population grid management work countermeasures and suggestions.
【Key words】 Floating population management; Social security; Dynamic control;
Grid management; Early warning; Planning
【Type of paper】Fundamental Research目 录
i
目 录
1 绪论........ 1
1.1 研究背景及意义.. 1
1.1.1 研究背景.... 1
1.1.2 研究意义.... 4
1.2 研究目的.. 7
1.3 研究内容及方法.. 9
1.3.1 研究内容.... 9
1.3.2 研究方法.. 10
1.4 研究框架及技术线路.... 12
1.4.1 研究框架.. 12
1.4.2 技术线路.. 13
2 理论基础和文献综述.. 14
2.1 流动人口管理理论基础 14
2.1.1 动态管控理论...... 14
2.1.2 动态能力理论...... 14
2.1.3 正态分布理论...... 15
2.1.4 网格化管理.......... 16
2.2 文献综述 17
2.2.1 国内流动人口管理文献综述..... 18
2.2.2 流动人口与犯罪文献综述......... 23
2.2.3 流动人口管理与实践的热点...... 24
2.3 流动人口管理经验与借鉴........ 25
2.3.1 浙江诸暨的“枫桥经验” .. 25
2.3.2 武汉百步亭社区经验...... 26
2.3.3 江西南昌“民调评警”经验 .......... 26
2.3.4 借鉴与启示..........
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