摘要
中国加入世贸组织的红利逐渐巧竭,与世巧主要经济体的贸易冲突不断
加剧。TPP (跨太平洋伙伴关系协议)、中美双边投资协定(BIT)、TTIP (跨
大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定)和PSA (诸(多)边服务业协议)等国际
背景给中国的外贸环境与经济发展带来巨大挑战。在此背景下,中国自由贸
易试验区战略政策应运而生。至今,我国己经设立了11个自贸试验区,其目
的是先行试验国际经贸新规则新标准,通过金融、贸易、投资、政府管理等
一系列政策变革,检验中国是否能够满足高标准国际规则的要求,并把成功
经验复制推广应用在全国。基于W上背景,本文从分析国内外自贸园区的发
展现状出发,围绕中国自贸试验区的经济效应,从负面清单的管理与制
度创新与不同行业的角度,对制度动力及不同行业的经济效果进行了综合评
判;从系统协调的角度,研究了自贸试验区内外不同发展要素间的作用机制;
从经济绩效的角度,检验了自贸试验区经济效应红利,并得到如下结果;
(1)分析了自贸視验区的负面清单管理模式,采用频数法比较2014
年上海改进版负面清单和2015年全国通用版负面清单,研究自贸试验区的服
务业开放度。测评的结果表明,2015年的服务业比2014年的更加开放,特
别管理措施条文更为精简,普适性更强。同时,分析各行业负面清单中的开
放情况,将自贸试验区所在地区作为利益相关者,按其在负面清单中开放度
的不同构建利益相关者模型,并将其纳入制度评估体系。利用利益相关者理
论,对上海自贸试验区政策进行全面评估,发现负面清单的管理方式在
短时间内对自贸试验区的发展支撑明思,而对周边区域的而言其扩散效应尚
不明显,进而根据上述实证结果对未來自贸试验区的管理创新和制度改进提
出具体政策建议

(2)为解决中国自贸试验区成立时间短,相关数据缺乏的问题,采用系
统动力学的相关方法,模巧自贸试验区外不同要素间形成经济效应的逻揖关
系。具体而言,将上海自贸试验区看成一个系统,并将上海自贸试验区版图
确定为系统边界,选取九类区内因素和区外因素作为系统变量因素,按上海
的目标产业和功能布局划分出五类指标,在全面考虑各因素间的相互作用机
制的基础上构建子系统,并加入辅助变量,在确定系统内各个因素之间的因
果关系的基础上形成总系统模型。通过对系统内的实际外商投资量、区内经
营收入息额、上海市进出日贸易总额H个重要变量进行实证,对历史数据和
仿真结果的对比分析,提出完善整合巧贸试验区的系统政策方向

-III-
中国自由贸易试验区经济效应研究
(3)基于工业增加值、进出口总额、进口额和出口额四个增长率指标,
采用反事实方法,将這些指标与对应的最优控制组进行比较分析,结果
发现除出曰额指标有所下滑外,其余兰个指标的真实值显著高于反事
实值,这表明了上海设立自贸试验区这一政策因素确实对经济有正的促进
作用。进一步,利用上海市的五个主要宏观经济指标建立回归模型,通过邹
氏检验验证上述结果,发现上海设立自贸试验区对外商直接投资产生拉动效
应。然后构建自贸试验区绩效评价指标体系,采用层次分析法分析各类因素
在评价体系中的贡献,并根据此绩效评价体系,从宏观、中观和微观兰个层
面给出自贸试验区的建设建议

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关键词:自巧园区,负面清单,经济效应
-IV-
北京科技大学博壬学位论文
Research on the Economic Effects of the China Pilot Free
Trade Zone(FTZ)
Abstract
China’s accession to t;he WTO dividend gradually deple化d, trade conflicts with
l:he world&39;s major economies in化nsified. TPP (Trans Pad巧c Partnership
Agreement), Sino US bilateral i打vestment treaty (BIT),TTIP (trans 化e Atlantic
Irade and investment partnership agreements (PSA) and 化e (multi) edge services
agreement) and o化er international backgrou打d to Chinese future foreign trade
environment and economic development has brought great challenges. In this
context, Ghina,s policy of free trade area arises at the historic moment, a打d 打ow our
country has set up 11 free trade zone. In China, the establishment of the FTZ is to
first test the new rules of the irUernational 化ade in the new s化ndard,through
financial, trade,investment,government management and a series of policy
changes, Chinese test whether can meet the hi呂h standards of international rules,
and to replicate the experience of application in the country.Based on the above
background, this paper starts from the analysis of the current situation of the
developme打t of free trade zone,and studies the economic effects of Chinaispilot
行ee trade area,and obtain t;he following conclusions:
(1) The management model of negative lists is analyzed in 1:he 1:est areaofFTA.
By using the frequency method to compare the improved version of the negative
listsinShanghai in 2014with the national general version of the negative lists in
2015, itinvestigates the openness of FTA test area. The results show that the service
sectorsin 2015 is moi＊e open 化an l:hose in 2014, and that the provisions of special
management measures are more streamlined, and more universal. At the same time,
the negative lists of various industries are discussed.Taking t:he FTA 化St area as
stakeholders, it constructs a stakeholders^ model by their opening degree in the
打egative lists,a打d adds them into the evaluation system, then use the stakeholder
theory to conduct a compi＊ehensive assessment of policy of Shanghai FTA 化St
area.It 巧nds 1:hat the negative list management mode supports the development of
l;he free 化ade zone in a short period of time, butfor 化e surrounding area in 化rms of
negative list, the diffusio打 effect is not obvious.Then according to the empirical
results,it p山s forward specific policy recommendations for 化e 化化化 FTA 化St area
management innovation and system improvement.
-V-
中圍自由贸易试验区经济效应研究
(2) In order to solve 化e problem t:hatFTA is set up in a short time,and 化at it
lacks relevant data, the sys1;em dynamics is used to simulate and forecast the
economic effect of the FTA test area. Specifically, itviewsShanghai FTA test area
as a system, andes化Wishes Shanghai FTA’s map as the system boundary, and
selects 如116;11化3 and extra region factors as variable factors, and divides into five
categories of i打dicators accordi打g to the target of 客hanghai i打dustry a打d functional
layout, andconstructsasubsys化m on the basis of considering the in1:ei＊action
mechanism among 化e factors, and 化en summarize 化e system after determining
tile causal wlationship between l;he various factors. Then theempirical analysisis
carried out by using the actual amou打t of foi＊eign investment within l;he system in
the region, a tol:al operating income of Shanghai City import and export trade, it
puts forward a sound sys化m in化gration policy direction of the FTA test area
through the comparison analysis between historical data a打d simulation results.
(3) The counterfactual method is employed to comparesome indexes,
i打eluding 1:he industrial added value, total imports and exports, imports and exports
of four growth rate index, with the corresponding optimal control group.The results
show that i打 addition to export volume i打dex fell, thereal valueof remaining three
indicators are significantly higher 化an 化at of 化e coun1:erfactuar value,
whichproves that the establishment of the free trade zone in Shanghai do have a
positive role in promoting economic growth. Further, it uses the five main
macroeconomic indicators of Shanghai to establish a regression model. Through
the verification of l:he above results, it shows 化at 化e establishment of l;he FTA 1:est
area in Shanghai has direct effect on foreign direct investment. Then it constructs
the evaluatio打 index system of performance in the FTA l:est area. AHP method is
used to analyze 1;he corUribution of various 化ctors in the evaluation system,and
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