GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT 2017 Existential Risk Diplomacy and Governance GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT 20172EXISTENTIAL RISK: DIPLOMACY AND GOVERNANCE Table of contents Authors/acknowledgements 3 Executive summary 4 Section 1. An introduction to existential risks 6 1.1. An overview of leading existential risks 6 Box: Examples of risks categorised according to scope and severity 7 1.1.1 Nuclear war 7 1.1.2 Extreme climate change and geoengineering 81.1.3 Engineered pandemics 9 1.1.4 Artificial intelligence 9 1.1.5 Global totalitarianism 9 1.1.6 Natural processes 10 1.1.7 Unknown unknowns 10 1.2. The ethics of existential risk 11 1.3. Why existential risks may be systematically underinvested in, and the role of the international community 11 1.3.1. Why existential risks are likely to be underinvested in 11 1.3.2. The role of the international community 12 Section 2. Recommendations 16 2.1. Develop governance of Solar Radiation Management research 16 2.1.1 Current context 16 2.1.2 Proposed intervention 16 Box: Types of interventions to reduce existential risk 17 2.1.3 Impact of the intervention 1 82.1.4 Ease of making progress 19 2.2. Establish scenario plans and exercises for severe engineered pandemics at the international level 19 2.2.1 Current context 19 2.2.2 Proposed intervention 20 2.2.3 Impact of the intervention 21 2.2.4 Ease of making progress 21 Box: World bank pandemic emergency financing facility 22 2.3. Build international attention to and support for existential risk reduction 23 2.3.1 Current context 23 2.3.2 Proposed intervention 23 2.3.2.1 Statements or declarations 24 Box: Existential risk negligence as a crime against humanity 24 2.3.2.2 Reports 24 2.3.2.3 Training courses 25 2.3.2.4 Political representation for Future Generations 25 2.3.2.5 UN Office of Existential Risk Reduction 26 2.3.3 Impact of the intervention 26 2.3.4 Ease of making progress 26 Box: Interventions under consideration which did not reach the final stage 27 2.3.5 What next steps can people take 27 Appendix – Methodology 30 EXISTENTIAL RISK: DIPLOMACY AND GOVERNANCE3GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT 2017 Executive summary T he 2015 Paris Agreement represented a huge global effort to safeguard future generations from damaging climate change. But climate change is not the only serious risk to humanity. Our collective commitment to our children and future generations needs to extend to all existential risks — those with the potential to permanently curtail humanity’s opportunity to flourish. These risks in- clude nuclear war, engineered pandemics, and other catastrophes resulting from emerging technologies. These disasters could cause an almost unimag- inable loss. They would lead to immediate harm, but in their most extreme forms, they have the potential to wipe out humanity entirely. Such risks may seem unlikely and distant. Indeed, in any one year they are improbable. But small prob- abilities accumulate - and because disaster risk re- duction is a global public good individual nations will tend to underinvest in it. Nuclear weapons and climate change themselves would have once been unimaginable. It may be that emerging technologies introduce new risks that are even harder to manage. Managing existential risk may prove to be the deci- sive geopolitical challenge of the 21st century. The first half of this report offers an overview of existential risks. The second half presents three op- portunities for humanity to reduce these risks. These were chosen with the help of over 50 researchers and policy-makers out of more than 100 proposals emerged from three workshops at the University of Oxford and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Helsinki. For each of these opportunities, humanity will require increasing levels of trust and internation- al collaboration in order to face the challenges that threaten us all. Moreover, these risks are constantly evolving, and understanding them will need deep and sustained engagement with the global research community. We hope that this report will go some way to ad- vancing the discussion about the management of existential risks, and inspire action from well-placed individuals and institutions. DEVELOP GOVERNANCE OF GEOENGINEERING RESEARCH Geoengineering technologies like Solar Radiation Management have the potential to mitigate risks from climate change, while at the same time posing risks of their own. The current lack of international norms on acceptable research practices may well be holding back safe exploration of climate engineering options. ESTABLISH SCENARIO PLANS AND EXERCISES FOR SEVERE ENGINEERED PANDEMICS AT THE INTERNATIONAL LEVEL Existing scenario planning focuses on modest out- breaks at a mostly national level. As the 2015 Ebola outbreak showed, nations do not respond in isola- tion. Planning must become increasingly internation- al, and should prepare for low-probability high-im- pact scenarios of pathogens synthesised to be more harmful than any naturally occurring disease. BUILD INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION AND SUPPORT FOR EXISTENTIAL RISK REDUCTION Existential risks are typically transnational and in- tergenerational. Overcoming them will need creative solutions to collective action problems, and shared political will. This will require the international com- munity to build international capacity and draw the attention of national governments and international organisations to existential risk. GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT 20174EXISTENTIAL RISK: DIPLOMACY AND GOVERNANCE EXISTENTIAL RISK: DIPLOMACY AND GOVERNANCE5GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT 2017 Authors Acknowledgements Sebastian Farquhar John Halstead Owen Cotton-Barratt Stefan Schubert Haydn Belfield Andrew Snyder-Beattie Copyright Global Priorities Project 2017 T his report has benefited from the input of many minds. We would like to especially thank for their comments and suggestions Dr. Stu- art Armstrong, Dr. Seth Baum, Andrei Botez, Dr. Niel Bowerman, Dr. Genya Dana, Carrick Flynn, Ben Gar- finkel, Professor Timo Goeschl, Professor Lawrence Gostin, Dr. Petri Hakkarainen, Dr. Alan W. Harris, Professor Alan Harris, Dr. Hauke Hildebrandt, Dr. Hiski Haukkala, Professor David Heymann, Professor Anna-Maria Hubert, Antti Kaski, David Kelly, Profes- sor David Keith,Dr. Raija Koivisto, Dr. Tim Kruger, Dr. Tom Inglesby, Professor Marc Lipsitch, Professor Mikhail Medvedev, Professor Adrian Melott, Dr. Piers Millett, Professor Juan Moreno-Cruz, Luke Muelhaus- er,Dr. Sean O’Heigeartaigh, Dr. Toby Ord, Dr. Andy Parker, Professor Edward Parsons, Professor Ray- mond Pierrehumbert, Dr. Ossi Piironen, Professor Steve Rayner, Dr. Sinikukka Saari, Carl Schulman, Dr. Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Dr. Jesse Reynolds, Dr. Nor- bert Reez, Dr. Catherine Rhodes,Professor Alan Rob- ock, Professor Alan Ross,Hannah Sehan, Stephan de Spiegeleire, Jaan Tallinn, Dr. Theo Talbot, Professor Brian C. Thomas, Professor Brian Toon, Kevin Wong and the students and staff of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. In addition, we are grateful to the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland who provided the funding which made this project possible and whose support and advice improved the outcome immeasurably.
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