BeijingRetailPropertyMarket 北京商铺物业市场 collieRsinteRnational|Beijing www.colliers/china Retailersbecamemorecautiousforexpansion siteselections.Despiteincreasingvacancy ratesandrentaldeclinesinmostcatchments in1Q09,thesectoralinvestmentmarket continuedtoattractoverseasanddomestic investmenttycoonsforlongtermpurposes. PRoPeRtytyPe|FiRstQuaRteR|2007 econoMicindicatoRs经济指标 growthtrends chinagdP* BeijinggdP* BeijingcPi** BankRate* Retailsales** consumerconfdence* disposableincome* consumptionexpenditure* 9.0% 9.0% -1.1% 5.4% 12.7% 15.5% 12.4% 7.4% MaRketPeRFoRMance市场表现 RentsVacancy RetailPRoPeRty|FiRstQuaRteR|2009 ★ outlook展望 supply Vacancy Rents capitalValues overall cBd chaoyangmen jianguomen Xidan Wangfujing dongzhimen lufthansa Zhongguancun Financestreet others suPPly供应 In1Q09,JinbaoPlace,locatedintheWangfujing catchment,andGloryMall,locatedinthe Chongwenmenarea,hadtheirsoftopenings, adding46,000sqmand130,000sqmtothemarket, respectively.Withthesenewcompletions,the stockoftheoverallmid-tohigh-endshopping centremarketinBeijingexpandedto3,409,174 sqmasofend-1Q09,up5.4%q-o-q. 本年第一季度内，位于王府井商圈的金宝汇购物中 心和位于崇文门地区的国瑞购物中心开始试营业， 分别为北京中高端购物中心市场新增46,000平方米 和130,000平方米的供应量，使总存量在本季末增 至3,409,174平方米，环比上升5.4% Theglobaleconomicrecessionandthelocal economicslow-downpenetratedintoBeijing’s retailmarketin1Q09,asexhibitedbythefact thatsomeinternationalretailersdecelerated theirexpansionsinChina/Beijing,high-end retailproductsweremassivelyonsalewithbigger discounts,andlocalconsumerbehaviourwas setbackbecauseofmorementalconstraints. Beijing’soverallmid-tohigh-endshoppingcentre propertymarketslumpedin1Q09asvacancies increasedandrentaldeclinedinmostcatchments. Dwindlingdemandwasalsoearmarkedonthe backoflowleasingratesandstagnantprogress amidstnewschemes.Whilemanylandlordsof someshoppingcentrescontinuedundertaking brandmixadjustmentsaimingatimproving customers’shoppingexperienceandqualityof thecentres,achievinghigheroccupancyrate forthecentresbecamethepriority.Retailers inclinedtochoosesitesatsophisticatedshopping centresinordertokeeptheoperationalrisksoff thecurveundertheexistingeconomicclimate, resultinginanupgradeinleasingcompetition andthatlandlordspostponedthecompletions andopeningdatesofnewproperties. 全球经济衰退与本土经济增长放缓对北京商铺物业 的影响于本季内开始显现，主要表现在一些国际零 售商放缓在中国和北京扩张的步伐、高级零售产品 大量打折、本地消费者购买行为在心理上受到更大 的约束。2009年第一季度内北京中高端购物中心的 整体市场表现下滑，新增供应出租率较低，各商圈 空置率上升伴随租金水平下降。多家购物中心欲对 品牌进行调整，在寄望继续提升商场购物体验和档 次的同时，更加注重获得高水平的出租率；许多品 牌零售商在目前的经济状况之下，更青睐入驻成熟 的购物中心以规避经营风险，致使新增项目招租难 度越发加大，有鉴于此，项目竣工和开业时间推迟 现象季内表现普遍 MaRketoVeRVieW市场概览 * ** *** source:BeijingstatisticsBureau,PBoc,MastercardWorldwide dataasofend-08 dataasofend-Feb09 acturalrate *** collieRsinteRnational2 TheKnowledgeReport|FirstQuarter|2009|BeijingRetailProperty Entering2009,theimpactofthefnancialcrisisonmanyretailers’ internaloperationsbecamemoreapparent,leadingmanyofthem withwidespectrumofbackgroundstoshelveorshrinktheirexpansion blueprints.AccordingtoarecentsurveybyaChineseindustry association,thedomestictop100chainenterpriseswouldslowdown theirgrowthofnewstoreopeningby30%whileforeignretailerswould mostlikelycontinuetowaitandseeinthemarketabsorptionof theBeijingmid-tohigh-endshoppingcentresdroppedby50.4%q-o-q to43,590sqm. 进入2009年，金融危机对零售商的影响较早前更为明显，使众多不同背 景的零售商搁置或缩小其扩张蓝图。据中国某行业协会的近期报道，国 内连锁百强企业新开店铺数量增速将减缓三成，国外零售商的观望期亦 会持续。第一季度的北京中高端购物中心的市场净吸纳量下降至43,590 平方米，按季下跌50.4% deMand需求 Figure1BeijingMid-toHigh-EndShoppingCentreStock,OccupiedArea&Vacancy 图1北京中高端购物中心存量、占有面积和空置率 Figure2BeijingMid-toHigh-EndShoppingCentresNewSupply,NetAbsorption&VacancyRates 图2北京中高端购物中心新增供应量、净吸纳量和空置率 Source:Research&Advisory,ColliersInternationalBeijing 数据来源：北京高力国际研究与咨询部 Source:Research&Advisory,ColliersInternationalBeijing 数据来源：北京高力国际研究与咨询部 Duetotheplummetsofbusinessintheirhomecountrymarkets,some luxurybrandretailersemployedmorecautiousattitudestowardsbusiness expansionsoverseas,impactingtheleasingschedulesofnewcentres withmid-tohigh-endpositioning,andresultinginpostponementsof completionsandopeningdates,aswasthecaseoftheretailpodiumof Ping’anInternationalFinancialCentreparingthistothosenew shoppingcentres,suchasYintaiCentreandthesouthzoneoftheVillage atSanlituan,whichwerecompletedandachievedhighoccupancyrate uponopeninginthelastyear,theoverallretailambianceofthecentres wasratherdiscouragingasonlyafewshopsopenedwhilstmuchmore retailspacewastobeletorwasbeingdecorated,thoughJinbaoPlace andGloryMallstillstagedsoftopenings. 受本土业务的影响，部分奢侈品牌就海外扩张持观望谨慎态度，使定位 高端、甚至中高端的新增项目招商受阻，如平安国际金融中心的商铺部 分等，并推迟竣工和开业时间。即使金宝汇和国瑞购物中心仍处于试营 业状态，与去年开业伊始即获得较高入住率的银泰中心、三里屯village 南区相比之下，商场内仅有部分店铺开始营业，不少店铺仍处于装修甚 至是招租状态 Inthisquarter,lowoccupancyofnewlyopenedshoppingcentres pulleduptheoverallvacancyoftheBeijingmid-tohigh-endshopping centresto17.21%,up3.16percentagepointq-o-q.TheJianguomen catchmentrecordedthehighest,followedbytheCBDandWangfujing, reaching40.3%,23.47%and20.65%,respectively.Mostsignifcantly, thevacantspaceoftheWangfujingcatchmentalmostdoubledin 1Q09dueprimarilytothenewcompletionofJinbaoPlace.Another importantfactorpushingupthevacancywasthatthelandlordofa particularmatureshoppingcentrewashesitatinginpickingupthe appropriatebrandsfromtheirtenantwaitinglistinabidtomaintain themall’spositioningandstablerentalincome. 第一季度，新开业购物中心的低品牌进驻率拉升了北京中高端购物中心 的整体空置水平，至17.21%，环比上升3.16个百分点；建国门商圈一如 过往仍录得最高空置率，为40.30%；而CBD和王府井商圈的空置率分别 为23.47%和20.65%。其中，由于金宝汇新近入市，致使王府井商圈的空 置率环比上升近一倍。区域内亦有个别成熟的购物中心既要维持其定位 和品质，又要确保获得稳定的租金收入，对欲入驻的牌子筛选良久，亦 系导致王府井商圈空置率上升的一个重要因素 Inspiteoftheweakenedleasingdemand,someretailersfromthe fashion,F&B,watch,accessories,electronics,cosmeticsandheathand beautysectorscontinuedtoposeaggressiveaspirationsforprimeretail space,takingadvantageofthecurrentnegotiationopportunitiesand signedleasingcontractsforeithernewstoreopeningsorrelocationsin thequarter. 尽管商铺市场的租赁需求放缓，本季度内仍有来自时尚服饰、餐饮、钟 表、饰品、电子产品和化妆品等行业的零售商抓住当前的议价时机，签 订新租赁协议或续租，以获取优质店面 collieRsinteRnational3 TheKnowledgeReport|FirstQuarter|2009|BeijingRetailProperty AveragegroundfoorrentinBeijing’smid-tohigh-endshopping centresdecreasedbyapproximately4.6%q-o-qtoRMB711.51psm permonthin1Q09.Landlordsofmostshoppingcentresstartedto compresstheirrentalexpectationstoachievestableoccupancyrate; meanwhilelandlordsstartedtoemploydifferentrentalcollection methodsdesignedfordifferenttradestocombattheharsheconomic environmenttogetherwithtenants.Forexample,retailersfromthe F&Bsectorwouldonlyneedtopaytheturnoverrentforthecurrent timewhilstthecommonpracticeofrentalpaymentmethodbeforewas