摘 要
股利政策是公司财务管理中的一个重要决策，公司管理层需要决定
将税后盈余的多大比例作为股息发放给股东，同时也相应决定了多大比
例将留存在公司进行再投资以支持公司未来的增长。股息和留存收益都
是可取的但是彼此冲突。通常来说，财务经理会制定合理的股利政策，
既满足股东现时现金回报的要求，也满足公司未来发展的需要。制造业
上市公司有大额的资本性支出，债务融资是资本性支出的主要来源，债
务对业绩及股利政策均有影响。
本文在文献回顾的基础上,结合我国制造业现金股利分配的现状,探
讨了我国制造业现金股利分配的影响因素。文章从盈利能力、流动性、
成长性、资本结构四个方面选取了现金分红的相关影响因素作为解释变
量，并选取资产规模、股权结构、年份和子行业作为控制变量，从绝对
股利收益（每股股利）和相对股利收益（股利收益率）两方面，采用 A
股制造业上市公司 2007年-2012 年的相关数据，对业绩和资本结构对
于股利政策的影响进行实证检验，得到盈利能力对于股利政策具有很强
的解释能力，资本结构和流动性指标对于股利政策具有较强的解释能力，
成长性指标对于股利政策的影响并不明显等结论。具体检验过程包括描
述性统计和相关性分析、基于年份均值的截面数据检验和基于全样本数
据的面板数据检验。
关键词：现金分红，股利政策，业绩，财务杠杆
ABSTRACT
Dividend decision is one the major decision in financial management. A
firm is to decide what portion of earnings would be distributed as dividend to
the shareholders and what portion of the same would be retained in the firm
for its future growth. Both dividend and retention are desirable but they are
conflicting to each other. Generally, a finance manager formulates a suitable
dividend policy, which satisfies the shareholders without hampering future
progress of the firm. Manufacturing companies have huge capital expenditure,
needed more capital for expansion and for new technology. These capitals
mostly come as a debt and there is an impact of debt on earnings and
dividend.
Being based on the study of dividend policy literature, this paper explores
the factors that influence cash dividend of China’s manufacturing listing
companies by analyzing the status quo of the dividend paying of these
companies. The paper sets cash dividend and dividend ratio as dependent
variables, and chooses factors from the perspectives of profitability, liquidity,
grow capability and debt levels as independent variables, and asset size,
ownership structure, the years and sub-industry as controlling variables, to
analyze the relationship among profitability, debt level and dividend policy
by collecting relative data of manufacturing listing companies from 2007 to
2012. Key findings of the study includes: profitability has strong relationshipwith
dividend policy, debt level and liquidity have relatively strong
relationship with dividend policy while the relationship between grow
capability and dividend policy is weak. The study process includes
descriptive statistical analysis, correlation analysis, regression analysis based
on both yearly average of cross section data and full sample of panel data.
KEY WORDS: cash dividend, dividend policy, profitability, financial
leverage