重庆理工大学
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摘要
协调发展是我国经济社会长远发展的理性战略选择，是解决经济发展进程
中不平衡、不协调问题的重要抓手。推动金融与实体经济二者协调发展是经济
高质量发展的内生要求，如何实现这一目标是新时期的重要命题，二者协调发
展现状及影响协调实现的因素亟待揭示和研究。为此，本研究建立协调度模型
和协调适应度模型，分别从静态和动态视角测度了我国金融与实体经济协调发
展系数，对二者协调发展现状进行有效评估。进一步地，建立面板选择模型和
动态门槛效应模型从影响因素角度揭示协调发展的动力因子和约束条件，为澄
清争议、科学决策提供理论支撑和实证证据。
本文对金融与实体经济协调性测度的结果表明，我国金融与实体经济在总
体层面还未实现良好协调的发展状态，但在总体上二者呈现出“协调强化”的
动态趋势。协调性预测结果预示协调发展趋势会随着时间的推移而增强，最终
实现“良好协调”发展。从区域层面来看，我国金融与实体经济的协调性表现
出东部地区>西部地区>中部地区的区域层级特征，且均处于“严重失调”的发
展状态，但各区域金融与实体经济的协调性在增强。通过理论框架构建，发现
产业结构、研发投入、人力资本积累、财政政策和市场化等因素是能对金融与
实体经济协调发展产生积极促进作用的预期影响因素，但影响效应的实证结果
表明，总体层面上产业结构、研发投入和市场化能推动金融与实体经济协调发
展，而人力资本积累囿于人力资本错配和劳动力结构失衡，财政政策囿于“时
滞效应”对协调发展的影响与预期不符。结构层面的实证结果表明，产业结构
优化升级能有效促进金融与实体经济的协调发展；研发投入、财政政策和市场
化跨越门槛值后对协调发展的影响显著增强；人力资本积累对协调发展的驱动
作用有限。进一步地，区域层面的影响效应结果表明各影响因素对金融与实体
经济协调发展的影响具有异质性。
结合理论分析和实证检验结果，本文对金融与实体经济的协调发展提出以
下政策建议：一是持续优化产业生态，建设现代产业体系；二是加大研发投入
力度，坚持金融科技创新；三是调整人力资本结构，扩大职业教育规模；四是
深化市场化改革，促进区域协调发展。
关键词：金融发展；实体经济；协调性测度；影响因素
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Abstract
Coordinated development is a rational strategic choice for China’s long-term
economic and social development. It is very important to solve the problem of
imbalance and disharmony between finance and real economy in the stage of high-
quality development. Moderate financial development is an important factor to promote
the real economy, while realizing the coordinated development of finance and real
economy is the endogenous requirement of the development of modern economy. How
to realize this goal has become an important proposition in the new era, and the current
situation of the coordinated development of the two and the factors affecting the
coordinated realization need to be revealed and studied urgently. Therefore, this study
established the coordination degree model and coordination fitness model to measure
the coordinated development coefficient of China’s finance and real economy from the
static and dynamic perspectives respectively, and effectively evaluate the current
situation of the coordinated development of the two. Furthermore, the panel selection
model is established to reveal the driving factors and constraints of coordinated
development from the perspective of influencing factors, which will provide theoretical
support and empirical evidence for clarifying disputes and scientific decision-making.
The results of the coordination measurement between finance and real economy
in this paper show that China’s finance and real economy have not achieved a well-
coordinated development in the overall level, but it indeed shows a dynamic trend of
“strengthening coordination”. The results of coordination prediction predicted that the
coordinated development trend will increase over time and finally achieve “well-
coordinated” development. At the regional level, the coordination between finance and
real economy in China shows the regional characteristics of eastern region > western
region > central region, and both are in a “serious imbalance” development state.
However, the coordination between finance and real economy in each region is
increasing. Based on the theoretical analysis, it can be found that the industrial structure,
R&D, human capital accumulation, fiscal policy and the marketization are the
expectations of influence factors which will actively promote the coordinated
development of finance and the real economy. Whereas, the effect of the empirical
results show that the overall level of industrial structure, R&D and market can promote
the financial and real economy coordinated development, while the human capital
accumulation is limited by the mismatch of human capital and the imbalance of labor
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