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大蒜期货合约设计与分析_MBA硕士毕业论文DOC

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更新时间:2023/3/9(发布于广东)
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摘要
稳定农产品价格、保障农产品供应和提升农业生产效益是推动乡村振兴取得新进展的
内在要求。自 2008年以来,我国蔬菜和肉类的价格出现周期性波动现象,给菜农、经销
商和消费者的生产生活带来巨大影响。作为小宗农产品代表的大蒜,因灾减产、同蒜不同
价和丰年难丰收的境遇始终困扰行业发展和居民生活。
大蒜期货的设计立足大蒜现货市场交易,遵循期货市场运行机制,借鉴已上市农产品
期货成功经验。首先,研究了必要性和可行性。从期货品种、市场供求、经营效益、规范
种植和国际贸易五个方面说明我国大蒜期货上市的必要性;从期货市场、现货市场、价格
波动特性、产品交割和金融属性五个方面说明大蒜期货上市的可行性。第二,明确了基本
目标和战略目标。基本目标是实现价格发现和风险规避;战略目标是保障国家菜篮子工程
实施,助力乡村振兴取得成果和促进农产品国际贸易发展。第三,将大蒜期货合约划分为
基本要素、风险控制要素和交割要素三级进行系统设计,是产品设计工作的主体部分。第
四,针对大蒜期货的上市,从政府、交易所、期货业协会、期货公司和投资者五个方面提
出建设性意见和推广策略。
全文从金融市场运行和产品设计的角度出发,设计大蒜期货合约条款,为大蒜期货合
约上市提供了具体的模板,丰富了农产品期货设计成果,推进用期货市场功能解决我国农
产品供求矛盾的步伐,助力新时代乡村振兴战略取得成功。
关键词:
大蒜期货;合约设计;价格发现;风险规避
I

Abstract
To promote new progress in rural revitalization, it is a fundamental requirement to stabilize
the prices of agricultural products, ensure the supply of agricultural products and enhance the
efficiency of agricultural production. Since 2008, the prices of vegetables and meat in China have
been experiencing cyclical fluctuations, which have brought great impact on the agricultural
production and livelihood of vegetable farmers, distributors and consumers. Garlic, as a
representative of small agricultural products, has been plagued with reduced production due to
climate disasters, chaotic pricing and harvest difficulties.
The design of garlic futures is based on garlic spot market trading, following the operation
mechanism of futures market and drawing on the successful experience of listed agricultural
futures. First, the necessity and feasibility of setting up the futures market are studied. The
necessity of listing garlic futures in China is illustrated from five aspects: futures varieties, market
supply and demand, operation efficiency, standardized cultivation and international trade; the
feasibility of listing garlic futures is also elaborated from five aspects: futures market, spot market,
price fluctuation characteristics, product delivery and financial attributes. Second, the basic and
strategic objectives are clarified. The basic objective is to achieve price discovery and risk
avoidance; the strategic objective is to guarantee the implementation of the national non-staple
food production project, advance rural revitalization and promote the development of
international trade of agricultural products. Third, the systematic design of garlic futures contract
is divided into three levels, namely, basic elements, risk control elements and delivery elements.
They are the main part of the design. Fourth, constructive opinions and promotion strategies are
proposed for the listing of garlic futures from five aspects: government, exchange, futures industry
association, futures companies and investors.
The paper works out the terms of garlic futures contracts based on financial market operation
and product design. It provides a detailed template for the listing of garlic futures contracts,
enriches the results of agricultural futures design, advances the pace of using futures market
functions to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of agricultural products in China.
II
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