Dissertation Submitted to
Hebei GEO University
For
The Master Degree of
Business Administration
KT Guarantee Company Business Risk Evaluation Research
by
Li Caibing
Supervisor: Prof. Miao Zehua
Associate Supervisor: Zhou Zun
Dec. 2021

摘要
河北省作为工业大省，大型国有企业占银行、投资机构贷款资金比例较大，“融
资难”阻碍了中小企业的发展进程。一直以来，中小企业对经济发展发挥着巨大作用，
如促进本地就业、增加税收等多个方面。融资性担保公司为推动中小企业经济发展扮
演着增信担保的角色。由于内外部环境影响，担保行业近几年屡屡出现风险，给经济
发展、社会稳定带来不同程度的危害。因此担保行业要从传统的风险预测向业务风险
评价方面倾斜，以此来提升风险防控能力。
首先，本文阐述了融资担保和业务风险的基本概念，对风险评价相关理论进行溯
源。同时，对国内外相关文献进行梳理和研究，为本文的研究积累了扎实的理论基础。
其次，介绍了KT担保公司的概况、业务流程、经营过程中存在的业务风险点和风
险评价现状。针对该公司风险评价不足之处，通过大量的文献及核心期刊阅读，访谈
行业专家及相关部门领导，认真研读分析担保行业业务风险指标，结合KT担保公司
实际，选取了22个评价指标，按照德尔菲法，邀请数位担保行业专家以背对背的方
式对评价指标的重要性进行评分，最终构建担保公司自身、在保客户、合作银行、政
府宏观经济政策、法律制度5个一级指标及展开的20个二级指标业务风险评价体系，
运用层次分析法确定各级指标的权重，然后运用模糊综合评价法计算出综合担保业务
风险。根据风险评价原理，结合KT担保公司的业务实际开展情况，从担保公司自身
因素、在保客户因素等与评价体系对应一级指标的五个方面进行认真剖析，深挖业务
开展过程中导致KT担保公司风险综合评价结果为“风险中等”的原因，并在今后的
业务中规避此类风险问题，为接下来KT担保公司业务风险防控策略提供理论依据，
最后，根据分析得出担保业务风险的影响因素，并从几个方面提出了KT担保公司
在应对担保业务风险时应着重注意的地方以及有效的风险防控策略，结合KT担保公
司业务实际提出的风险防控策略具有针对性、可操作性，体现了本文的现实意义。
本文在研究视角和内容方面有所创新，对规范融资担保行业风险防控具有借鉴意
义，不仅对KT担保公司和同类担保公司风险防控发挥积极作用，同时有助于提升融
资担保公司风险管理水平。
关键字：KT担保公司；融资担保；担保业务风险；评价体系
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ABSTRACT
As a large industrial province, Hebei province, large state-owned enterprises account
for a large proportion of the loan funds of banks and investment institutions, "financing
difficulties" hinder the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Smes have
always played a huge role in economic development, such as promoting local employment
and increasing tax revenue. Financing guarantee companies play the role of credit guarantee
to promote the economic development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Due to the
influence of internal and external environment, the guarantee industry has repeatedly
appeared risks in recent years, which have brought varying degrees of harm to economic
development and social stability. Therefore, the guarantee industry should be inclined from
the traditional risk prediction to the business risk evaluation, so as to improve the risk
prevention and control ability.
Firstly, this paper expounds the basic concepts of financing guarantee and business
risk, and traces back to the relevant theories of risk evaluation. At the same time, the
relevant literature at home and abroad is sorted out and studied, which has accumulated a
solid theoretical foundation for the study of this paper.
Secondly, it introduces the general situation, business process, business risk points and
risk evaluation status of KT Guarantee Company. Deficiency, against the company risk
assessment and core periodical reading through a lot of literature, interviews with industry
experts and relevant department heads, poring over business risk index analysis guarantee
industry, combining the reality of KT guarantee company, selected the 22 evaluation
indexes, according to the Delphi method, with digital security industry experts, in the form
of back to back to rate the importance of the evaluation index, Finally, five first-level
indicators, including guarantee company itself, guarantee customers, cooperative banks,
government macroeconomic policies and legal system, as well as 20 second-level indicators,
are constructed. Ahp is used to determine the weight of indicators at all levels, and then
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the risk of comprehensive
guarantee business. According to the principle of risk evaluation, combined with KT
guarantee company's actual situation, from its own factors, guarantee company in the
customer factors and evaluation system index of corresponding class of five aspects of
analysis, dig the business process in KT guarantee company risk comprehensive evaluation
results as the cause of "medium risk", and avoid such risk problem in the future business,
Provide a theoretical basis for the business risk prevention and control strategy of KT
Guarantee Company.
Finally, according to the analysis it is concluded that the influence factors of guarantee
business risk, and put forward the KT guarantee company from several aspects when
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