摘要
通过第七次人口普查的数据可得，中国 65岁以上的人口占比与 2000年的
7.0%相比将近增加了一半，上涨到 13.5%，表明我国正面临着严峻的人口老龄
化问题。由于养老金“转轨”造成的隐形债务和个人账户空转的问题，在人口
老龄化的冲击下，使养老金的“转轨”成本愈发严重，对养老保险制度长期的
稳定性造成巨大的挑战。然而养老金的财务可持续是保证养老金制度正常运转
的重要前提，因此当前我国社保体系的首要任务是要保障养老金体系能够稳定
的有效运转。本文通过人口老龄化、基金的收益率、缴费率及养老金替代率等
角度来分析养老金的财务可持续性存在的问题。从代际的角度，通过世代交叠
模型分析各因素变动对养老金财务可持续性的影响，得出提高养老金投资收益
率、替代率、缴费年限和人口增长率可以提高社会养老保险的财务可持续性。
最后提出针对性的政策建议来优化我国社会养老保险财务可持续性。
本文共分为六个章节：第一章主要交代本文的研究背景、思路和本文的创
新点。分析相关文献综述，总结文献述评。第二章主要介绍了社会养老保险制
度和财务可持续性的理论基础和概念界定。第三章首先梳理了我国社会养老保
险体系的历史变革和现行的制度设计。通过预测养老金缺口得出我国社会养老
保险缺乏财务可持续性的结论，并分析导致养老金缺乏财务可持续性的影响因
素。第四章主要介绍智利、瑞典和新加坡的养老金可持续发展的经验，并得到
相关启示。第五章主要运用世代交叠模型构建均衡状态，通过数理分析各因素
变动对养老金财务可持续性的影响。第六章主要是根据数理分析的结果在国外
养老金改革经验借鉴的基础上提出调整的政策思路和建议。
关键词：社会养老保险；世代交叠模型；财务可持续性；基金缺口
I

Study on the financial sustainability of China's social pension
insurance system--Empirical analysis based on the OLG model
Abstract
According to the seventh census, the proportion of people over 65 years of age in
China has increased by almost half from 7.0% in 2000 to 13.5%, indicating that China
is facing a serious problem of an ageing hot population. The invisible debt and the
problem of personal accounts being left empty due to the pension 'transfer', under the
impact of ageing, has made the 'transfer' cost of pensions more and more serious, posing
a huge challenge to the long-term stability of the pension insurance system. However,
the financial sustainability of pensions is an important prerequisite for the normal
operation of the pension system, so the priority of the current social security system in
China is to ensure the stable and effective operation of the pension system. This paper
analyses the problems with the financial sustainability of pensions from the perspective
of the ageing population, the rate of return of the fund, the contribution rate and the
pension replacement rate. From an intergenerational perspective, the impact of changes
in various factors on the financial sustainability of pensions is analyzed through a
generational overlap model, and it is concluded that increasing the rate of return on
pension investments, the replacement rate, the number of years of contribution and the
population growth rate can improve the financial sustainability of social pension
insurance. Finally, ideas and policy recommendations for optimizing the financial
sustainability of social pension insurance in China are proposed.
Translated with DeepLTranslator (free version)This paper is divided into
six chapters: Chapter 1 briefly introduces the research background, ideas, methods and
research and innovation points of this paper, organizes and analyzes the relevant
literature review, and summarizes the literature review. Chapter 2 introduces the
theoretical basis and concept definition of social pension insurance system and financial
sustainability. Chapter 3 firstly compares the development history and current system
design of social pension insurance in China. It concludes that China's social pension
insurance lacks financial sustainability by predicting the pension gap and analyzes the
influencing factors that lead to the lack of financial sustainability of pensions. Chapter
II

4 introduces the experience of pension sustainability in Chile and Sweden-Singapore,
and draws relevant insights. Chapter 5 mainly uses the overlapping generations model
to construct the equilibrium state, and analyzes the impact of the variation of each factor
on the financial sustainability of pensions through mathematical and rational analysis.
Chapter 6 proposes policy ideas and suggestions for adjustment based on the results of
the mathematical analysis and the experience of foreign pension reform.
Keywords：Social Pension Insurance; OLG; Financial Sustainability; fund gap
III
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