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G市地方政府债务风险管理研究_MBA毕业论文DOC

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重庆理工大学
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作者签名:
日期: 2022 年 5 月 23 日
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日期: 2022 年 5 月 23 日
日期: 2022 年 5 月 23 日

摘 要
摘 要
自 2009年全球金融危机后,为应对全球的金融危机,在政府相关政策法规
的引导下,我国公共投资规模快速增长,公共投资的到来使政府的资金压力暂时
缓解,但是地方政府财政收入渐渐难以满足其不断增加的债务支出,地方政府的
财政缺口逐渐扩大,对应的政府债务规模和债务风险也随之增加。地方政府进行
适当的举借外债可以缓解资金压力,使当地产业发展有效的循环和提升,有利于
经济水平提高与改善人民生活质量水平,但是当政府外债远高于自身的偿债能
力,会严重损害地方政府公信力,扰乱正常的社会生活秩序。中央强调对地方政
府债务的管理,为此颁布了一系列的措施,化解地方政府债务带来的风险。2016
年中旬,国家发布关于处理债务风险的处置预案,即《地方政府性债务风险应急
处置预案》,预案中中央政府将地方政府债务风险划分为四个等级,实行分级响
应和应急处置,结合我国政府债务的具体情况,从三不一退、削减经费等方面入
手进行债务风险的管控。2018年中央又发布相关文件,强化对地方政府隐形债
务进行监管,健全了政府政府债务的监管措施。
本文首先对 G市政府债务状况和债务风险进行梳理分析,再对 G市政府债
务管理进行分析,发现 G市政府债务存在一系列的问题,其中包括管理组织结
构缺乏效率、债务风险预警机制不健全、地方债务抗风险能力弱、地方债务具有
一定的隐蔽性等。针对以上的问题,用 SPSS对 G市地方政府债务进行风险评估,
测量结果发现政府债务受到四个因子:债务风险规模、债务结构规模、偿债风险、
宏观经济风险的影响,面对这些问题,G市地方政府债务不利于当地市场经济的
发展,阻碍投融资平台的转型升级,导致当地政府公信力下降,引发债务风险等
问题。针对这些问题,本文提出完善政府债务风险管理的组织结构,提高偿债能
力,健全政府融资机制等措施来对 G市债务风险进行管理。
关键词:地方政府;债务风险;风险管理
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Abstract
Abstract
As the carrier of investment, capital plays a vital role in public investment. Since
the global financial crisis in 2009, in order to deal with the global financial crisis,
under the guidance of relevant government policies and regulations, the scale of
public investment in China has increased rapidly. The arrival of public investment has
temporarily relieved the capital pressure of the government, However, the local
government's financial revenue is gradually difficult to meet its increasing debt
expenditure, the local government's financial gap is gradually expanding, and the
corresponding government debt scale and debt risk are also increasing. Appropriate
borrowing of foreign debt by local governments can alleviate the financial pressure,
effectively cycle and enhance the development of local industries, and is conducive to
the improvement of economic level and the improvement of people's quality of life.
However, when the government's foreign debt is far higher than its own solvency, it
will seriously damage the credibility of local governments and disrupt the normal
order of social life. The central government emphasizes the management of local
government debt, and has promulgated a series of measures to resolve the risks
brought by local government debt. In 2017, the central government issued the
emergency response plan for local government debt risk, which clearly divided the
local government debt risk into four levels, implemented hierarchical response and
emergency response, and controlled the debt risk from the aspects of "three non
refunds", "fund reduction", "downsizing and layoffs" and "clean-up subsidies" in
combination with the specific situation of China's government debt. In 2019, the
central government issued another document to strengthen the supervision of local
government invisible debt and improve the supervision measures of government debt.
Firstly, this paper combs and analyzes the debt situation and debt risk of G
municipal government, and then analyzes the debt management of G municipal
government. It is found that there are a series of problems in G municipal government
debt, including inefficient management organization structure, imperfect debt risk
early warning mechanism, weak ability of local debt risk, and certain concealment of
local debt. In view of the above problems, SPSS is used to evaluate the risk of G city's
local government debt. The measurement results show that the government debt is
affected by four factors: debt risk scale, debt structure scale, debt repayment risk and
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