INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE Rising Caseloads, a Disrupted Recovery, and Higher In?ation 2022 JANJAN. 2022 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE Rising Caseloads, a Disrupted Recovery, and Higher Inflation ? The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected. As the new Omicron COVID-19 variant spreads, countries have reimposed mobility restrictions. Rising energy prices and supply disruptions have resulted in higher and more broad-based inflation than anticipated, notably in the United States and many emerging market and developing economies. The ongoing retrenchment of China’s real estate sector and slower-than-expected recovery of private consumption also have limited growth prospects. ? Global growth is expected to moderate from 5.9 in 2021 to 4.4 percent in 2022—half a percentage point lower for 2022 than in the October World Economic Outlook (WEO), largely reflecting forecast markdowns in the two largest economies. A revised assumption removing the Build Back Better fiscal policy package from the baseline, earlier withdrawal of monetary accommodation, and continued supply shortages produced a downward 1.2 percentage