I 摘要 工程项目进度管理的影响因素很多，其中一些不确定因素的影响控制较为复 杂，如果风险没有管控好，就会对工程项目造成损失。所以需要一些具体的方法 去解决它，使得工程项目进度的计划更为科学，工程项目实施过程中的措施更为 得当，能够使参与方的利益和工程整体的利益得到保障。随着城市的不断发展， 工程项目的不断增多，相关部门对工程项目建设的管理也更加严格，特别是针对 环境方面制定的法律法规。所以工程建设单位在工程实施过程中，需要严格考虑 到有关规章制度并采取确切的措施。环境污染的频发造成日趋严重的环境问题与 大家对环境问题的重视程度的不断增加是考虑的重点。由于环境问题影响得不到 突出，环境不确定因素需要更细致的在工程进度管理中得到考虑。比如大气污染 造成的雾霾天气影响，比如温室效应引起的夏天极热冬天极冷的异常气候现象， 比如降雨量更大城市排水系统难以有效应对。本文将不确定环境因素作考虑，基 于I管网改造工程项目建设过程中对环境的影响与在此过程中环境对工程项目建 设的影响，将新的管理法规与更显著的自然环境不确定因素考虑进工程项目进度 控制当中。得出考虑更加全面，项目进度控制更加优化的方案。 通过项目风险管理的知识体系，将影响工程项目进度的环境因素进行整理统 计，将其中的不确定环境因素作为研究对象。使用专家评价法得到不确定性带来 的风险量比较大和应该更加重视的不确定环境因素种类，将其细化到具体的城市 的具体的方面。搜集相关方面的近期数据，并统计分析出其影响与显著性。 分析使用工程网络计划计算工期。基于三点估算法和模糊数学的方法将环境 不确定因素考虑到工程进度计划中并对其进行相关计算。用多种辩证统一的分析， 得到更为客观的工程项目进度计划，将工程项目实施过程中对环境不确定因素采 取相关的措施预案以使工程项目风险降到最低。 结合管网改造工程项目案例，考虑不确定环境因素，使用相关方法对I管网改 造工程项目进度做评估。对项目工程进度做进一步优化。结合当地的具体相关情 况与工程项目特点。研究得到应用措施的合理性与必要性，分析出在考虑不确定 环境因素，对管网改造工程项目优化的实际意义与经济效益。 关键词：不确定因素，环境因素，管网改造工程，项目进度优化 ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT There are many influencing factors of project schedule management, some of which are complicated to control the influence of uncertain factors, if the risk is not well controlled, it will cause losses to the project. Therefore, some concrete methods are needed to solve it, so that the project schedule is more scientific, the measures in the implementation of the project are more appropriate, and the interests of the participants and the overall interests of the project can be guaranteed. With the continuous development of the city, the number of engineering projects is increasing, and the management of the construction of engineering projects by relevant departments is more strict, especially the laws and regulations formulated for environmental aspects. Therefore, in the process of project implementation, the construction unit should strictly consider the relevant rules and regulations and take precise measures. The frequent occurrence of environmental pollution causes more and more serious environmental problems and the increasing attention to environmental problems. Because the impact of environmental problems is not prominent, environmental uncertainties need to be considered more carefully in the project schedule management. Such as atmospheric pollution caused by haze weather effects, such as greenhouse effect caused by the summer extremely hot winter extremely cold abnormal climate phenomenon, such as more rainfall in urban drainage system is difficult to deal with effectively. Based on the influence of environment on the construction of I pipe network reconstruction project and the influence of environment on the construction of the project, new management regulations and more significant uncertainty of natural environment are taken into account. A more comprehensive consideration, more optimal project schedule control. Rely on the knowledge system of project risk management, the environmental factors that affect the progress of the project are sorted out and counted, and the uncertain environmental factors are taken as the research object. The use of expert evaluation method to obtain the uncertainty caused by the amount of risk is relatively large and should be paid more attention to the types of uncertain environmental factors, to refine it to the specific aspects of specific cities. Collect relevant recent data, and statistical analysis of its impact and significance. Analysis uses the project network plan to calculate the duration. Based on the ABSTRACT III three-point estimation method and fuzzy mathematics method, the environmental uncertainty is taken into account in the project schedule and the relevant calculation is made. With the analysis of multiple dialectical unity, a more objective project schedule is obtained, and relevant measures are taken to minimize the project risk in the process of project implementation. Combined with the case of pipe network reconstruction project, considering uncertain environmental factors, the relevant methods are used to evaluate the progress of I pipe network reconstruction project. further optimize the project progress. Combined with local specific relevant situation and engineering project characteristics. The rationality and necessity of application measures are studied, and the practical significance and economic benefit to the optimization of pipe network reconstruction project are analyzed. Keywords: uncertain factors, environmental factors, pipe network renovation project, project schedule optimization 目 录 IV 目 录 第一章 引 言 .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 论文研究背景 ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 本文研究方向 .......................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 相关研究方向 .......................................................................................... 2 1.2 本文研究目的 ..................................................................................................... 3 1.3 本文研究意义 ..................................................................................................... 4 第二章 国内外工程项目进度管理研究综述 ................................................................ 5 2.1 工程项目管理 ..................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 工程项目目标管理 .................................................................................. 5 2.1.2 工程项目进度管理 .................................................................................. 6 2.2 工程项目风险 ..................................................................................................... 7 2.3 工程项目进度优化方法 ..................................................................................... 9 2.3.1 专家评价法 .............................................................................................. 9 2.3.2 三时估算法 .............................................................................................. 9 2.3.3 模糊概率法 .............................................................................................11 第三章 I管网改造工程项目进度分析 ........................................................................ 13 3.1 I管网改造工程项目 ....................................................................................... 13 3.3.1 I管网改造工程项目概况 ....................................................................... 13 3.2.2 I管网改造工程项目特点 ....................................................................... 14 3.2.3 I管网改造工程项目进度控制重点 ....................................................... 15 3.2 I管网改造工程项目进度优化技术路线 ....................................................... 18 第四章 I管网改造工程项目不确定环境因素分析 .................................................... 19 4.1 不确定环境因素识别 ....................................................................................... 19 4.2 自然环境因素影响及识别 ....