无论是国家层面还是业主方面，都比较青睐以EPC为代表的工程总承包模 式，其具有设计、施工与采购一体化的特点，相较于传统模式有着显著的优点。 随着《促进建筑业持续健康发展的意见》等一系列政策文件的出台，再加上以上 海、浙江等八省为工程总承包试点地区的决定作出之后，该模式的发展更是成为 了一大热点。但在现阶段，建筑市场基本由卖方市场主导，发包人要在承发包交 易中占据更多主动，承包人便要担负更多的风险，这也给施工企业的发展带来了 极大的制约，故而，对于任何一个施工企业而言，如何有效管理施工合同风险， 是其工作开展中所面的一个重要问题。 本文首先从EPC合同承包人法律风险管理的理论基础出发，提出了承包人 法律风险管理的相关概念，进而结合理论定性分析了当前EPC合同承包人法律 的风险性，主要涉及到合同订立、质量纠纷、价款结算三个方面。其次，通过灰 色关联度模型确定EPC合同的承包人法律风险管理的关键性影响因素，并对其 进行分析。再次，建立基于结构方程的影响因素分析模型，在模型适配度指标的 基础上对所提出的假设进行验证，结果显示在法律风险管理的影响因素中，人员 因素有着最大的影响，接下来是合同内容、组织建设与关系维度等因素，再次是 环境因素。最后，针对定性分析和定量分析提出对EPC合同承包人法律风险管 理对策，主要是提高项目参与方合同履约能力，加强项目参与方之间协同管理， 推广EPC模式的制度保障这三点。 本文初步探索了EPC合同承包人法律风险管理影响因素与表现形式间的关 系，从而对我国EPC工程总承包合同管理方面的内容进行了丰富。 关键词：EPC合同，法律风险管理，灰色关联度，结构方程模型 III ABSTRACT Whether it is the national level or the owner, it prefers the project contract model represented by EPC. It has the characteristics of integration of design, construction and procurement, and has obvious advantages compared with the traditional model. With the introduction of a series of policy documents such as the "Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Construction Industry" and the decision to use Shanghai, Zhejiang and other eight provinces as pilot areas for the project, the development of this model has become a major focus.. However, at this stage, the construction market is basically dominated by the seller's market. In this situation, the issuer must take more initiative in the contract contract transaction, making the contractor bear more risks. This situation also brought great constraints to the development of construction enterprises. Therefore, for any construction enterprise, how to effectively prevent and control construction contract risks is also an important issue in the development of its work. Firstly, this paper starts from the theoretical foundation of the legal risk of EPC contract contractor, puts forward the relevant concepts, and then analyzes the risk of the current EPC contract contractor's law in combination with the theory, mainly involving contract formation, quality dispute, and price settlement. Secondly, the key factors influencing the legal risk of EPC contract are determined by grey correlation degree model and analyzed. Thirdly, an analysis model of influencing factors based on structural equations is established, and the proposed hypothesis is verified on the basis of the fitness index of the model. The results show that the personnel factors have the greatest influence in the influencing factors of legal risks. The next is the content of the contract, organizational construction and the dimension of the relationship, and the second is the environmental factors. Finally, the author puts forward the countermeasures to reduce the legal risk of EPC contract contractor by qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, which is mainly to improve the ability of project participants to perform the contract, strengthen the collaborative management among project participants, and promote the system guarantee of EPC model. This paper explores the relationship between the legal risk factors and the form IV of the EPC contractor, and thus enriches the management of the EPC project in China. KEY WORDS: EPC Contract, Legal Risk, Gray Correlation, Structural Equation Model V 目 录 摘要 ................................................................................................................................ I ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................... III 目录 ............................................................................................................................... V 第1章 绪论 ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 研究背景 ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2 研究目的及意义 ............................................................................................ 2 1.2.1 研究目的 ............................................................................................ 2 1.2.2 研究意义 ............................................................................................ 3 1.3 国内外研究现状 ............................................................................................ 4 1.3.1 国内研究现状 .................................................................................... 4 1.3.2 国外研究现状 .................................................................................... 7 1.3.3 研究评述 ............................................................................................ 9 1.4 研究内容、技术路线和方法 ........................................................................ 9 1.4.1 研究内容 ............................................................................................ 9 1.4.2 研究方法 .......................................................................................... 10 第2章 相关概念及理论基础 .................................................................................. 13 2.1 相关概念 ...................................................................................................... 13 2.1.1 合同 .................................................................................................. 13 2.1.2 法律风险性 ...................................................................................... 14 2.1.3 合同法律风险管理 .......................................................................... 14 2.2 相关理论基础 .............................................................................................. 15 2.2.1 EPC基本理论 ................................................................................. 15 2.2.2 风险管理理论 .................................................................................. 17 2.3 相关研究模型 .............................................................................................. 18 2.3.1 灰色关联度 ...................................................................................... 18 2.3.2 结构方程 .......................................................................................... 20 第3章 承包人法律风险性影响因素分析.............................................................. 23 3.1 EPC合同实施中存在的问题 ..................................................................... 23 3.2 一般影响因素的设定 .................................................................................. 25 VI 3.3 关键影响因素的筛选 ................................................................................. 33 第4章 基于结构方程模型的影响因素分析 ......................................................... 35 4.1 影响因素理论假设及模型构建 ................................................................. 35 4.1.1 关键性影响因素定性分析及假设 ................................................. 35 4.1.2 结构方程模型构建 ......................................................................... 41 4.2 影响因素问卷调查 ..................................................................................... 43 4.3 影响因素样本数据分析 ............................................................................. 44 4.3.1 样本的统计性描述 .........................................