I 摘要 分享型电商是近年来崛起的一种电子商务形式，由于其模式新颖，受到广泛关 注。该类电商企业大多以轻资产和无形资产为主、发展前景不明朗、行业整体影响 大，并且企业成立初期可能暂时无法获得收入和利润，导致企业财务报表数据往往 缺乏说服力，难以反映企业的真实价值。例如拼多多上市后，股价暴涨，估值290 亿美金。从拼多多发布的财报来看，其处于亏损扩大状态，但GMV的强劲增长和 庞大的活用户数量，让拼多多股价一度逆势上涨超过16%。 当前分享型电商企业蕴含着巨大的商业价值，针对这类公司应该如何估值困 扰着创业团队和投资者。常用的企业价值评估方法，主要是基于企业收入和利润的 思路，显然不能很好反映实际情况，如何合理高效地完成此类企业估值成为值得研 究的课题。 本文先归纳总结分享型电商特点，认为基于企业收入和利润的思路，不能很好 地反映此类企业的实际价值。再结合拼多多的企业背景，分析影响其企业价值的核 心因素，对此类电商企业展开价值评估研究。基于邓巴数字理论、齐普夫定律等， 对基础DEVA模型进行改进，使估值方法以用户价值、市场占有率、单位用户维 护投资、获客成本为核心，解除财务数据及盈利与否对企业价值的约束。最后辅以 相对估值法的估值区间来验证估值可靠性，并将该方法推广应用到其他分享型电 商企业的估值，以此来验证此改进模型的广泛适用性。得出改进DEVA模型能够 较好地评估初创及成长期分享电商企业价值的结论。 关键词：分享电商，企业估值，客户价值，DEVA ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT Sharing e-commerce is a form of e-commerce that has emerged in recent years. Due to its novel model, it has received widespread attention. These e-commerce enterprises are mainly based on light assets and intangible assets, with unclear development prospects. In addition, they may temporarily be unable to obtain revenue and profits at the initial stage of establishment, which often leads to the lack of persuasiveness in the company ’s financial statement data. So it's difficult to reflect the true value of the enterprise. For example, after Pinduoduo went public, the stock price skyrocketed, with a valuation of $ 29 billion. Judging from the financial report released by Pinduoduo, it is in a state of expanding losses, but the strong growth of GMV and the large number of active users have caused Pinduoduo's stock price to rise by more than 16% against the trend. The shared e-commerce companies contain huge commercial value. How to value such companies has troubled entrepreneurial teams and investors. Commonly used enterprise value assessment methods are mainly based on the idea of enterprise income and profit. Obviously, they do not reflect the actual situation very well. How to complete the valuation of such enterprises reasonably and efficiently has become a subject worthy of study. This article first summarizes the characteristics of shared e-commerce, and believes that the idea based on corporate income and profit does not reflect the actual value of such companies well. Combined with the business background of Pinduoduo, analyze the core factors that affect its corporate value, and conduct value evaluation research on such e- commerce companies. Based on Dunbar's number theory, Zipf's law, etc., the basic DEVA model is improved, so that the valuation method focuses on user value, market share, unit user maintenance investment, and customer acquisition cost. Finally, the valuation interval of the relative valuation method is supplemented to verify the reliability of the valuation, and the method is extended and applied to the valuation of other shared e- commerce companies to verify the wide applicability of this improved model. It is concluded that the improved DEVA model can evaluate the value of sharing e-commerce enterprises better in the initial and growth stage. Keyword：sharing e-commerce, corporate valuation, customer value, DEVA 目录 III 目录 第一章 绪论 .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1研究背景及意义 ............................................................................................ 1 1.1.1研究背景 ................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ................................................................................................ 2 1.2 研究路径与实践方法 ................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 研究路径 ................................................................................................ 2 1.2.2 研究方法 ................................................................................................ 3 1.3 研究内容与创新点 ....................................................................................... 4 1.3.1 研究内容 ................................................................................................ 4 1.3.2 创新点 .................................................................................................... 4 1.4 文献综述 ....................................................................................................... 4 1.4.1 电商企业价值评估文献综述 ................................................................ 4 1.4.2 基于DEVA模型估值文献综述 ........................................................... 6 1.4.3 文献研究评述 ........................................................................................ 6 第二章 分享型电商特点及估值难点分析 .................................................................... 8 2.1 电商简介及分类 ........................................................................................... 8 2.1.1 电商简介 ................................................................................................ 8 2.1.2 电商特点 ................................................................................................ 9 2.1.3 电商分类 .............................................................................................. 10 2.2 分享型电商模式分析 ................................................................................. 11 2.3 分享型电商价值特征点 ............................................................................. 13 2.4 分享型电商估值难点 ................................................................................. 15 第三章 分享型电商拼多多介绍与分析 ...................................................................... 17 3.1 分享电商代表拼多多企业背景 ................................................................. 17 3.1.1 拼多多企业简介 .................................................................................. 17 3.1.2 拼多多发展历程 .................................................................................. 18 3.1.3 拼多多股权结构 .................................................................................. 18 3.2 拼多多SWOT分析 .................................................................................... 19 3.2.1 优势分析 .............................................................................................. 19 3.2.2 劣势分析 .............................................................................................. 20 第一章 绪论 IV 3.2.3 机会分析 .............................................................................................. 20 3.2.4 威胁分析 .............................................................................................. 21 3.3 拼多多运营模式分析 ................................................................................. 22 3.3.1 拼多多产品定位 .................................................................................. 22 3.3.2 拼多多用户分析 .................................................................................. 22 3.3.3 拼多多商业模式 .................................................................................. 24 3.3.4 拼多多分享价值特征分析 .................................................................. 26 3.4 拼多多营业及财务数据分析 ..................................................................... 28 3.4.1 拼多多主要营业指标分析 .................................................................. 28 3.4.2 拼多多财务数据分析 ........................