1 摘要 我国的债券市场自2014年开始出现违约情况以来，各大民营企业深陷危机。据 统计，从2014年到2017年，4年累计发生违约债券122只，涉及金额860亿。2018 年上市公司债券违约不断爆发，至2018年12月底，中国债券市场共计47家主体、 125只公私募债券出现违约，新增的违约主体共有41家（不包括技术性违约），为 历史最高水平。永泰能源，这家曾是A股市值最大的民营煤炭企业，市值曾超千亿 元，在此次债券违约浪潮中也未能幸免。2018年7月5日晚间，17永泰能源CP004 构成实质性违约。7月6日，永泰能源宣布股票、债券同时停牌。债券违约后给永泰 能源带来了哪些经济后果，其企业运营因此次违约又发生了何种变化是本文研究的重 点。 本文采用文献研究法、案例分析法的研究方法，以永泰能源债券违约事件为案例， 分析债券违约事件对民营企业产生的经济后果并提出相关化解债券违约危机的对策。 在基于大量文献研究的基础上，试图探索出一条适应于本国国情的债券违约处置机 制。文章首先介绍了与债券违约相关的理论知识，其次是回顾了永泰能源债券违约的 事件全过程，简要分析其债券违约的成因，阐述了目前永泰能源应对危机的手段。重 点分析了债券违约事件带来的经济后果。文章认为，债券违约事件发生后，永泰能源 的公司治理得到优化升级、投资结构回归主业，趋向理性。同时债券违约事件对于公 司市场估值而言造成了股价波动、信用评级遭受质疑、压缩了企业再融资空间等一系 列不良后果。 通过对债券违约事件带来的经济后果的分析，提出本文的结论，化解永泰能源 债券违约的对策建议，包括调整现有资产结构、收缩投资规模、提高主业核心竞争力 等方面。本文还对如何获取利益相关者的支持上提出了一些建议。 本文的创新之处在于研究角度创新，着重分析了债券违约事件的经济后果，违约 过后各方面所做的一些调整变化，直观的展现了债券违约所带来的影响。希望本文能 够对相似类型民营企业防范债券违约，化解债券违约危机提供借鉴作用，为推动中国 公司债券市场健康发展、提高企业和投资者整体风险意识提供一些借鉴作用。 关键词：永泰能源；债券违约；经济后果 永泰能源债券违约经济后果分析及对策优化研究 I Abstract Since the default of China's bond market began in 2014, private enterprises have been in crisis.According to statistics,from 2014 to 2017, there were 122 defaulting bonds in total,involving 86 billion.In 2018, bond defaults of listed companies continued to break out,by the end of December 2018, a total of 47 subjects and 125 public private bonds in China's bond market had defaulted, and 41 new defaulting subjects (excluding technical defaulting) were added, which is the highest level in history.Yongtai energy, once the private coal enterprise with the largest market value of a shares, which has a market value of more than 100 billion yuan, has not been spared in the wave of bond default.On the evening of July 5, 2018, 17 Yongtai energy cp004 constituted a material breach.On July 6, yongtai energy suspended trading of its shares and bonds after the company failed to make a full payment on a one-year bond of 1.5 billion yuan issued in 2017.Some economic consequences will be brought to Yongtai energy after the bond default, and what changes will happen to its enterprise operation due to the default are the focus of this paper. This paper uses the methods of literature research and case analysis, taking Yongtai energy bond default as a case, analyzes the economic consequences of bond default on private enterprises, and puts forward relevant countermeasures to resolve the bond default crisis.Based on a large number of literature research, this paper attempts to explore a bond default disposal mechanism suitable for the national conditions.This paper first introduces the theoretical knowledge related to bond default, then reviews the whole process of Yongtai energy bond default, briefly analyzes the causes of bond default, and expounds the current measures of Yongtai energy to deal with the crisis.This paper focuses on the analysis of the economic consequences of bond default.After the bond default, Yongtai energy's corporate governance has been optimized and upgraded, and its investment structure has returned to the main business, which tends to be rational.At the same time, the bond default event caused a series of adverse consequences for the company's market valuation, such as the stock price fluctuation, the credit rating being questioned, and the corporate refinancing space being compressed. Based on the analysis of the economic consequences of the bond default event, this paper puts forward the conclusions of this paper. Countermeasures and suggestions to resolve the default of Yongtai energy bond, including adjusting the existing asset structure, shrinking the investment scale, improving the core competitiveness of the main business, etc.This paper also gives some suggestions on how to get the support of stakeholders. The innovation of this paper lies in the innovation of research angle, focusing on the analysis of the economic consequences of bond default events, and some adjustments and changes made in various aspects after the default, intuitively showing the impact of bond default.It is hoped that this paper can provide reference for similar types of private Abstract II enterprises to prevent bond default and resolve the bond default crisis, so as to promote the healthy development of China's corporate bond market and improve the overall risk awareness of enterprises and investors. Keywords: Yongtai Energy; Bond Default; Economic Consequences 永泰能源债券违约经济后果分析及对策优化研究 1 目 录 导 论 ········ 1 一、选题背景与研究意义 ·············· 1 二、相关文献综述 ····· 2 三、本文的研究思路、内容与方法 ·· 6 第一章 公司债券违约的理论分析 ········· 9 第一节 债券筹资特性与债券违约 ······ 9 一、债券筹资特性 ····· 9 二、债券违约的内涵 ·10 第二节 公司债券违约的影响因素 ····· 11 一、宏观金融政策与经济发展水平 · 11 二、行业背景与风险性 ················ 11 三、企业经营战略与风险水平 ·······12 四、企业融资结构与偿债能力 ·······13 第三节 公司债券违约的预警与防范 ··13 一、债券违约的预警 ·13 二、债券违约的防范策略 ·············15 第二章 永泰能源债券违约案例介绍 ····· 17 第一节 永泰能源公司简介 ··············17 一、基本概况 ··········17 二、公司近3年主要财务指标变化 ·17 第二节 公司债务违约事件 ··············24 一、债券违约事件回顾 ················24 二、后续债券连续违约 ················25 第三节 永泰能源债券违约成因分析 ··27 一、债券违约的外部因素分析 ·······27 二、债券违约的内部因素分析 ·······29 第四节 违约后的后续处置情况 ········33 一、“13永泰债”展期兑付 ···········33 二、出售资产，增加投资性净现金流 ················34 三、实施债转股，降低负债规模和负债率 ··········35 四、与主要融资机构沟通，获得新增流动性支持 ·35 五、积极推动控股股东战略重组 ····35 第三章 永泰能源公司债券违约经济后果分析 ··········· 36 目 录 2 第一节 公司治理结构发生改变 ········36 一、公司董事及高级管理人员变动 ·36 二、公司规章制度重新修订 ··········37 第二节 投资结构调整 ··38 一、违约前的多元化战略 ·············38 二、违约后回归主要产业 ·············38 第三节 对公司市场估值的影响 ········40 一、股价持续波动 ····40 二、信用评级影响公司形象，压缩再融资空间 ····41 三、给利益相关者带来的影响 ·······42 第四章 优化永泰能源债券违约的对策建议 ················ 44 第一节 调整现有资产结构，收缩投资规模 ···········44 一、调整现有资产结构 ················44 二、收缩投资规模 ····44 三、提高主业核心竞争力 ·············45 第二节 获得利益相关者的支持 ········45 一、政府 ················46 二、融资机构 ··········46 三、债权人 ·············47 四、员工 ················48 结 论 ······· 49 一、本文的研究结论 ·49 二、本文研究的创新点和局限性 ····49