抓娃娃，一种深受男女老少欢迎的娱乐游戏，1-3分钟就能玩一局。各大商场随处 可见的娃娃机，是这个行业繁荣最好的注解。 虽然娃娃机行业很繁荣，但从运营方式来看依然非常原始，用户在大部分的娃娃机 上只能投币支付，娃娃机经营者仍然采取传统的收款方式，即派人去各台娃娃机中取出 硬币，盘点入账，经营数据和报表全靠娃娃机经营者手工记账，运营效率不高。另外， 由于娃娃机没有联网，和用户没法深度互动，和娃娃机经营者完全隔离。同时每台娃娃 机每天有很多用户在线下使用，也就是我们所说的线下用户流量，但这些用户没法数字 化和再次运营，用户的商业价值没有完全发挥出来。与此相对应的是线上流量红利消失， 流量成本越来越高，未被充分挖掘的线下流量将会是流量的新机会。 随着这些年我国移动网络和物联网技术的不断发展，万物互联成为可能，娃娃机成 为一台线下智能终端，和用户进行智能化互动，用户能被数字化，从而提升用户价值。 另外也让娃娃机经营者更有效率地管理自己的生意，比如实时查看娃娃机的运营状态、 清晰查看经营数据和报表等等。 本项目《L公司抓娃娃机智能化平台》，利用物联网技术，让娃娃机成为一台线下 智能终端，用户使用更方便、更智能，并探索线下流量数字化、平台化后用户的商业价 值。同时让娃娃机行业从业者多赚钱，少花钱，提高经营效率，实现项目的商业价值和 社会价值。 本文以商业计划书的形式展开，研究了项目所处的竞争环境和项目的优劣势，阐述 了项目的商业模式，根据项目的营销战略制定了营销策略并对项目的具体运营作了安排， 预测了项目的财务模型，并对项目可能面临的风险和解决方案作了说明，研究的目标在 于制定一份科学、客观、可行的该商业计划书，为项目的决策实施提供参考。 关键词：娃娃机；智能化；线下流量 II Abstract Grab the doll, an entertainment game popular with men, women and children, to play a game in 1-3 minutes. Doll machines, which are everywhere in major shopping malls, are the best notes of the industry's boom. Although the doll machine industry is very prosperous, but from the operation of the way is still very primitive, users in most of the doll machine can only coin payment, doll operators still take the traditional way of collection, that is, send people to each doll machine to take out coins, inventory into the account, operating data and reports all rely on the doll operator manual accounting, operating efficiency is not high. In addition, because the doll machine is not connected to the internet, and users can not deeply interact, and the doll operator completely isolated. At the same time, each doll machine every day there are many users under the online use, that is, we call offline user traffic, but these users can not digitize and re-operate, the commercial value of users did not fully play out. Correspondingly, the online traffic bonus disappears, the traffic cost is getting higher and higher, and the offline traffic that is not fully mined will be a new opportunity for traffic. With the continuous development of China's mobile network and Internet of Things technology over the years, the Internet of Everything is possible, the doll machine becomes an offline intelligent terminal, and users intelligent interaction, users can be digitized, thereby enhancing user value. It also allows doll operators to manage their business more efficiently, such as real-time viewing of the operation status of the doll machine, clear viewing of operating data and reports, and so on. This project "L company doll machine intelligent platform", the use of Internet of Things technology, so that the doll machine becomes an offline intelligent terminal, users use more convenient, more intelligent, and explore offline traffic digital, platform after the user's business value. At the same time, let the doll machine industry practitioners make more money, spend less money, improve business efficiency, realize the commercial value and social value of the project. This paper is carried out in the form of a business plan, the study of the competitive environment of the project and the project's advantages and disadvantages, the description of the project's business model, according to the project's marketing strategy to develop a marketing strategy and the specific operation of the project to make arrangements, forecast the project's financial model, and the project may face risks and solutions, The objective of the study is to develop a scientific, objective and feasible business plan that provides III reference for the implementation of the project's decision-making. Keywords: doll machine; Intelligent; offline traffic IV 目 录 摘要 ............... I Abstract ........ II 图目录 ....... VIII 表目录 .......... IX 第一章 绪论 .. 1 1.1 选题背景和研究意义 ........ 1 1.1.1 选题背景 ...................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ...................... 3 1.2 文献综述 ............................ 4 1.2.1 物联网的概念和在娃娃机行业的应用 ..... 4 1.2.2 入口经济和线下流量 .. 4 1.2.3 To B企业服务 .............. 6 1.3 研究方法与内容 ................ 6 1.3.1 研究的主要方法 .......... 6 1.3.2 研究的主要内容 .......... 7 1.3.3 本文的研究路线 .......... 8 第二章 项目介绍 ......................... 9 2.1 项目创意来源 .................... 9 2.2 项目调研 .......................... 10 2.2.1 线下实地考察 ............ 10 2.2.2 定性访谈 .................... 10 2.2.3 调研结论 .................... 12 2.3 项目团队核心成员 .......... 12 2.4 项目产品介绍 .................. 13 2.5 项目的盈利模式 .............. 15 2.5.1硬件销售收入 ............. 15 2.5.2 广告收入 .................... 15 2.5.3支付流水返点 ............. 15 V 2.5.4 娃娃公仔供应链收入 15 2.5.5 在线抓娃娃收入 ........ 16 2.5.6 商家贷 ........................ 16 2.6 本章小结 .......................... 16 第三章 环境分析和战略选择 ... 17 3.1 总体环境分析 .................. 17 3.1.1 政治环境分析 ............ 17 3.1.2 经济环境分析 ............ 17 3.1.3 社会环境分析 ............ 18 3.1.4 技术环境分析 ............ 19 3.2 行业环境分析 .................. 19 3.2.1 现有竞争者威胁 ........ 20 3.2.2 潜在进入者威胁 ........ 20 3.2.3 替代品威胁 ................ 20 3.2.4 购买者的议价能力 .... 21 3.2.5 供应商的议价能力 .... 21 3.3 竞争者分析 ...................... 21 3.4 客户需求分析 .................. 23 3.4.1 娃娃机工厂和运营商需求分析 ............... 23 3.4.2 抓娃娃用户需求分析 23 3.4.3 广告主需求分析 ........ 26 3.5 SWOT分析 ....................... 26 3.5.1 优势分析 .................... 27 3.5.2 劣势分析 .................... 27 3.5.3 机会分析 .................... 28 3.5.4 威胁分析 .................... 28 3.5.5 SWOT战略选择 ......... 29 3.6 本章小结 .......................... 29 第四章 营销战略规划及营销组合策略制定 .......... 30 4.1 营销目标 .......................... 30 VI 4.2 STP营销战略规划 ........... 30 4.2.1 市场细分 .................... 30 4.2.2 目标市场选择 ............ 31 4.2.3 市场定位 .................... 31 4.3 营销组合策略4P ............. 31 4.3.1 产品策略 .................... 32 4.3.2 价格策略 .................... 34 4.3.3 渠道策略 .................... 35 4.3.4 促销策略 .................... 36 4.4 本章小结 .......................... 36 第五章 项目运营规划 ............... 38 5.1 项目运营的关键要素 ...... 38 5.2 项目运营关键能力的建设 ............................. 38 5.3 项目核心资源 .................. 40 5.4 项目的组织架构及里程碑 ............................. 40 5.4.1 项目的组织架构 ........ 40 5.4.2 项目运营里程碑 ........ 41 5.5 本章小结 .......................... 42 第六章 项目投资和财务分析 ... 43 6.1 项目投资说明 .................. 43 6.2 项目财务预测 .................. 43 6.3 现金流量表 ...................... 47 6.4 财务分析 .......................... 48 6.4.1 净现值分析 ................ 48 6.4.2 内部收益率 ................ 48 6.5 本章小结 .......................... 48 第七章 风险分析及对策 ........... 49 7.1 行业政策风险 .................. 49 7.2 金融监管风险 .................. 50 7.3 收入不达预期风险 .......... 50 VII 7.3.1 单因素敏感分析 ........... 51 7.3.2 多因素敏感分析 ........... 51 7.4 风险对策 .......................... 52 7.4.1 行业政策风险对策 .... 52 7.4.2 金融监管风险对策 .... 52 7.4.3 收入不达预期风险对策 ........................... 53 7.5 本章小结 .......................... 53 结 论 ............ 54