I 摘要 近年来，随着我国高铁等交通建设及经济取得举世瞩目的成就，我国文化旅 游行业迎来了历史发展机遇，音乐节、博览会、文化节等文化旅游项目日趋常态 化、规模化、产业化。F 音乐节即是在此背景下产生、发展的集旅游、文化、娱乐 为一体的大型活动项目。F 音乐节在提升旅游地形象和地方经济方面发挥了较大作 用，但是，同其他大型活动一样，也伴随着安全风险的增加。其风险主要来源于 内部管理协调、外部施工及设施设备安全、安保工作、人员管理、活动秩序等方 面，参加人员的流动性、聚集性等因素增加了风险管理压力，内部风险管理制度、 对风险的评估、应对预案的有效性等影响着风险管理成效。本文根据 F 音乐节活 动案例，结合项目风险管理理论，采用案例分析法、文献研究法等方式，基于理 论和实践的比较，从项目风险管理体系、风险识别及评估、项目风险应对等方面 对 F 音乐节进行分析，对项目中存在的风险因素进行考量，指出在类似 F 音乐节 项目风险管理方面，政策环境、现场施工质量及进度、设备安全稳定性及其安装、 治安刑事安全事故是影响项目目标的重要因素，在项目风险管理中需要予以重点 关注。结合上述结论，就如何完善和提高类似于 F 音乐节一样的大型文化娱乐活 动风险管理措施提出了解决对策。对于其他类似项目的风险管理应对具有参考作 用。 关键词：音乐节，项目风险管理，大型社会活动ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT In recent years, with China's high-speed rail and other transportation construction and economic achievements, China's cultural tourism industry has ushered in historical development opportunities, and cultural tourism projects such as music festivals, epositions and cultural festivals are becoming more and more normalized, large-scale and industrialized. Under this background, f Music Festival is a large-scale event which integrates tourism, culture and entertainment. F Music Festival has played an important role in improving the image of tourist destinations and local economy. However, like other large-scale events, it is accompanied by an increase in security risks. The risk mainly comes from internal management coordination, eternal construction and equipment safety, security work, personnel management, activity order and other aspects. The mobility and aggregation of participants increase the pressure of risk management. The effectiveness of risk management is affected by internal risk management system, risk assessment and effectiveness of response plan. Based on the case of F music festival activities, combined with project risk management theory, case analysis method, literature research method and other methods, based on the comparison of theory and practice, this paper analyzes the F Music Festival from the aspects of project risk management system, risk identification and evaluation, project risk response, etc., and considers the risk factors in the project, and points out that the project risk of similar f Music Festival is also pointed out In terms of management, policy environment, on-site construction quality and progress, equipment safety and stability and its installation, and criminal administrative safety accidents are important factors affecting the project objectives, and are also the issues that need to be focused on in project risk management. Combined with the above conclusions, this paper puts forward countermeasures on how to improve and improve the risk management measures of large-scale cultural and entertainment activities similar to f Music Festival. For other similar projects, risk management should have a reference role. Keywords：Music Festival，project risk management，Large scale social activities目 录 III 目 录 第一章 绪论.....................................................................................................................5 1.1 研究背景和意义.................................................................................................5 1.1.1 研究背景...................................................................................................5 1.1.2 研究意义...................................................................................................6 1.2 国内外研究动态.................................................................................................6 1.2.1 国内研究动态...........................................................................................6 1.2.2 国外研究动态...........................................................................................8 1.3 研究思路和内容.................................................................................................9 1.3.1 研究思路...................................................................................................9 1.3.2 研究内容...................................................................................................9 1.4 研究路线...........................................................................................................10 第二章 相关理论基础................................................................................................... 11 2.1 项目风险管理的概述....................................................................................... 11 2.2 项目风险管理体系...........................................................................................12 2.2.1 项目风险识别.........................................................................................12 2.2.2 项目风险评估.........................................................................................13 2.3 项目风险应对...................................................................................................15 2.4 项目风险监控...................................................................................................16 2.5 大型社会活动风险管理理论...........................................................................17 2.5.1 大型社会活动的定义和内涵.................................................................17 2.5.2 大型社会活动风险分类.........................................................................18 第三章 F 音乐节项目概况与风险管理规划................................................................20 3.1 项目概况...........................................................................................................20 3.1.1 项目简介.................................................................................................20 3.1.2 项目规模及主要内容.............................................................................20 3.1.3 项目组织架构.........................................................................................21 3.1.4 项目工作分解结构.................................................................................22 3.2 项目风险管理规划...........................................................................................23 3.2.1 项目风险管理目标.................................................................................23 3.2.1 项目风险管理组织.................................................................................24目 录 IV 3.2.2 项目风险管理流程.................................................................................24 第四章 F 音乐节项目风险识别....................................................................................26 4.1 项目风险类型识别....................................................................................26 4.2 项目风险来源识别....................................................................................31 4.3 项目风险因素识别....................................................................................32 第五章 F 音乐节项目风险评估....................................................................................39 5.1 F 音乐节项目风险评估方法.............................................................................39 5.1.1 建立 F 音乐节项目层次结构模型.........................................................42 5.1.2 专家问卷调查.........................................................................................43 5.1.3 构建判断矩阵.........................................................................................43 5.1.4 层次排序.................................................................................................48 5.2 项目风险评估结果...........................................................................................49 第六章 F 音乐节项目风险应对与监控........................................................................50 6.1 项目管理风险应对措施...................................................................................50 6.1.1 项目环境风险应对.................................................................................50 6.1.2 项目经济风险应对.................................................................................51 6.1.3 项目现场施工风险应对.........................................................................52 6.1.4 项目后勤保障风险应对.........................................................................52 6.1.5 项目管理风险应对.................................................................................53 6.1.6 项目社会稳定风险应对.........................................................................53 6.2 项目风险监控...................................................................................................54 6.2.1 项目风险监控的目的.............................................................................54 6.2.2 项目风险监控实施计划.........................................................................55 第七章 结论与展望.......................................................................................................57 7.1 结论...................................................................................................................57 7.2 展望...................................................................................................................57 致谢.................................................................................................................................59