中国社会保障体系建设处于高速发展时期，中国保障性住房工作的开展已经步入 了非常关键的时期。近年来，实施成效越来越受到人们的重视，有关实施成效的研究 逐步走向成熟，从理论研究拓展到商业应用，正在快速向公共管理领域普及。对于保 障性安居工程而言，一方面保障对象的满意程度是衡量政府保障住房实施成效的重要 依据，另一方面地方政府保障房实际支出与合理支出之间缺口率的大小也是判断政府 保障性安居工程实施成效一个非常重要的指标。 本文首先根据文献回顾确定了不同方面的27个属性来衡量受访者的住户满意 度。利用河北省393份调查问卷的数据，通过整体住宅满意度和可居住性指数研究住 户对于保障性安居工程的总体满意度，并通过相关性分析探讨影响其满意程度的关键 因素。然后运用30个省份2011-2016年的面板数据建立回归模型估算出河北省各地 级市政府保障房的合理支出值，再计算河北省各地级市政府保障房的实际支出值，进 而测算出河北省各地级市政府保障房支出缺口。 研究表明在满意度方面河北省保障性安居工程总体住户满意度水平不高，保障房 居住私密性、社区环境及配套、维护修理工作、整体居民素质水平和保障房退出机制 等因素与河北省保障房住户满意度有着显著相关性；文化程度和月收入与总体住户满 意度呈负相关，而面积与户型与总体住户满意度呈正相关。在支出缺口方面除 2011-2016年度唐山市及2016年度保定市外，其余所有地级市政府均存在保障房支出 的正缺口；各地级市政府的支出缺口率呈逐年减小的趋势。这项研究为政府未来的保 障房建设提供了一些参考，为以后对保障房实施成效的研究提供了有用的证据。 关键词：河北省；保障房；实施成效；住户满意度；支出缺口率 III Abstract TheconstructionofChina'ssocialsecuritysystemisinaperiodofrapiddevelopment, andthedevelopmentofChina'saffordablehousinghasenteredaverycriticalperiod.Since the20thcentury,theimplementationeffectivenesshasbeenpaidmoreandmoreattention bypeople.Theresearchonimplementationeffectivenesshasgraduallymatured,from theoreticalresearchtocommercialapplication,anditisrapidlyspreadingtothepublic managementfield.Ontheonehand,thesatisfactiondegreeoftheobjectisanimportant basisformeasuringtheeffectivenessofthegovernment'sguaranteeofhousing implementation.Ontheotherhand,thegapbetweentheactualexpenditureofthelocal governmentandthereasonableexpenditureisalsoaveryimportantindicatorforjudging theeffectivenessofthegovernment'saffordablehousingproject. Thispaperfirstdeterminesthehouseholdsatisfactionofrespondentsbasedonthe literaturereviewtodeterminethe27attributesofdifferentaspects.Usingthedataof393 questionnairesinHebeiProvince,theoverallsatisfactionofresidentsintheaffordable housingprojectwasstudiedthroughtheoverallresidentialsatisfactionandhabitability index,andthekeyfactorsaffectingtheirsatisfactionwerediscussedthroughcorrelation analysis.Thenusethepaneldataof2011-2016in30provincestoestablisharegression modeltoestimatethereasonableexpenditurevalueoftheaffordablehousingofthelocal governmentinHebeiProvince,andthencalculatetheactualexpenditurevalueofthesocial housingofthelocalgovernmentinHebeiProvince,andthencalculatetheHebeiProvince. Localgovernmentguaranteeshousingspendinggap. Theresearchshowsthatintermsofsatisfaction,theoverallhouseholdsatisfaction leveloftheaffordablehousingprojectinHebeiProvinceisnothigh,theprivacyofthe housingispoor,thecommunityenvironmentandsupportingfacilitiesareinsufficient,the maintenanceandrepairworkisnotinplace,theoverallqualityoftheresidentsislow,and theexitmechanismofsocialhousingisnotsound.Thefactorsweresignificantly correlatedwiththedissatisfactionofthetenantsinHebeiProvince;theeducationleveland monthlyincomewerenegativelycorrelatedwiththeoverallhouseholdsatisfaction,while theareaandhouseholdsizewerepositivelycorrelatedwiththeoverallhousehold IV satisfaction.Intermsofexpendituregap,exceptforTangshanCityin2011-2016and BaodingCityin2016,allotherprefecture-levelmunicipalgovernmentshaveapositive gapinaffordablehousingexpenditure;therateofexpendituregapsoflocal-level municipalgovernmentshasbeendecreasingyearbyyear.Thisstudyprovidessome inspirationforthegovernment'sfutureconstructionofaffordablehousingandprovides usefulevidenceforfutureresearchontheeffectivenessofaffordablehousing. Keywords:HebeiProvince；AffordableHousing；ImplementationEffectiveness； HouseholdSatisfaction；ExpenditureGapRate V 目录 摘要.....................................................................................................................................I Abstract................................................................................................................................III 第一章绪论.....................................................................................................................-1- 1.1研究背景....................................................................................................................-1- 1.2研究目的及意义........................................................................................................-1- 1.2.1研究目的.........................................................................................................-1- 1.2.2研究意义.........................................................................................................-2- 1.3研究方法与技术路线................................................................................................-3- 1.3.1研究方法.........................................................................................................-3- 1.3.2技术路线.........................................................................................................-3- 1.4研究内容....................................................................................................................-4- 第二章文献综述.............................................................................................................-7- 2.1住户满意度综述........................................................................................................-7- 2.2支出缺口率综述........................................................................................................-8- 2.3各国保障住房借鉴及综述........................................................................................-9- 2.3.1美国保障性住房借鉴.....................................................................................-9- 2.3.2法国保障性住房借鉴...................................................................................-10- 2.3.3新加坡保障性住房借鉴...............................................................................-10- 2.3.4日本保障性住房借鉴...................................................................................-11- 2.3.5我国保障性住房建设研究...........................................................................-11- 2.4本章小结..................................................................................................................-12- 第三章保障房住户满意度测量...................................................................................-13- 3.1保障房住户满意度评价体系的建立......................................................................-13- 3.1.1模型建立的原则...........................................................................................-13- 3.1.2模型的建立...................................................................................................-13- 3.2保障房住户满意度研究范围与数据收集..............................................................-14- 3.3数据调查方法..........................................................................................................-15- 3.4数据分析..................................................................................................................-16- 3.4.1受访住户的社会经济特征...........................................................................-16- 3.4.2满意度信度和效度分析...............................................................................-18- 3.4.3住户满意度...................................................................................................-19- 3.4.4相关分析.......................................................................................................-22- 3.5结果讨论................................................................