随着我国医疗改革的深入，医院并购成为社会资本进入医疗服务行业的重要 方式。医院并购模式与企业并购模式基本相同，但由于医院并购自身的行业特殊 性，有形资产占总资产比例较低，而无形资产实际价值又很难估量，相对于其他 传统行业目前还没有一套完整的系统的价值评估方案。 为了找到合理方法在医院并购整合中对医院进行价值评估，本文将价值评估 理论基础与医疗行业的实际经济条件、宏观政策、资本市场的发展情况等相结合， 选出适合我国的医疗服务行业的价值评估方法。并采用对比分析法，案例分析法 进行研究。 首先，本文对医疗服务行业的发展历史、现阶段国内政策、市场下的行业现 状及发展前景进行了说明，对我国民营医疗机构并购中的案例进行了分析。 其次，对成本法、市场法、收益法三种价值评估理论在我国医院的适用性进 行分析，并对其优缺点进行评价。结合医疗行业的特点，得出现金流折现法适用 于医院价值评估的结论，并构建出适用于医院的评估模型。分析了床位数、营业 收入、中高级职称人数、所有者权益及医院所在区域GDP对评估结果影响，得 出医院价值与医院床位数、营业收入和中高级职称人数成正相关，与所有者权益 和医院所在区域GDP无明显联系。 最后，本文选取代表性案例A医疗集团并购Q医院作为实证分析。通过历 史财务数据进行分析，测算未来现金流、折现率、期末价格。还原出本次并购案 使用现金流折现法对标的公司进行估值的关键过程，并在实证分析中引入地区政 策、覆盖人群、地区经济情况、人员素质、医疗机构等级，医院性质，床位数等 内外部因素。通过可比交易分析模型得出结果，Q医院通过现金流折现法价值评 估结果客观反映了其价值，从而进一步验证了自由现金流量的合理性。 通过上述研究发现，现金流折现法的确是最为适合且能够全面反映医疗服务 行业整体价值的估值方法。但在使用该方法时我们应该结合被评估医院的实际情 况，全面了解其成长周期、价值驱动因素、风险因素，并同时结合其他估值方法 加以辅助，以求得到最公允的估值结果。 关键词：现金流量，价值评估，医院并购 III ABSTRACT WiththedeepeningofChina'smedicalreform,hospitalmergersandacquisitions havebecomeanimportantwayforsocialcapitaltoenterthemedicalserviceindustry. ThehospitalM&AmodelisbasicallythesameastheM&Amodel.However,dueto theindustryspecificityofhospitalM&A,theproportionoftangibleassetstototal assetsislow,andtheactualvalueofintangibleassetsisdifficulttoestimate. Comparedwithothertraditionalindustries,thereisnocompleteset.Thesystem's valueassessmentprogram. Inordertofindareasonablemethodtoevaluatethevalueofhospitalsinhospital M&Aintegration,thispapercombinesthetheoreticalbasisofvalueassessmentwith theactualeconomicconditionsofthemedicalindustry,macroeconomicpolicies,and thedevelopmentofcapitalmarketstoselectthemedicalserviceindustrysuitablefor China.Valueassessmentmethod.Andselecttheactualcaseforanalysis. Firstofall,thispaperexplainsthedevelopmenthistoryofthemedicalservice industry,thecurrentdomesticpolicies,thecurrentstatusoftheindustryunderthe marketandthedevelopmentprospects,andanalyzesthecasesinthemergersand acquisitionsofprivatemedicalinstitutionsinChina. Secondly,itanalyzestheapplicabilityofthethreevaluationmethodsofcost method,marketmethodandincomemethodinChinesehospitals,andevaluatesits advantagesanddisadvantagesbinedwiththecharacteristicsofthemedical industry,thediscountedcashflowmethodisappliedtotheconclusionofhospital valueevaluation,andanevaluationmodelsuitableforhospitalsisconstructed.Onthe basisofthemodel,thepaperanalyzestheinfluenceofbednumber,operatingincome, numberofmiddleandseniorprofessionaltitles,owner'sequityandGDPofthe hospitalintheassessmentarea.Itisconcludedthatthehospitalvalueispositively correlatedwiththenumberofhospitalbeds,operatingincomeandthenumberof middleandseniorprofessionaltitles.Thereisnoobviouslinkbetweentheowner's equityandtheGDPofthehospital. Finally,thispaperselectstherepresentativecaseAmedicalgroupmergerand acquisitionQhospitalasanempiricalanalysis.Throughhistoricalfinancialdata analysis,thefuturecashflow,discountrate,andendingpricearemeasured.Restore thekeyprocessofthevaluationofthetargetcompanyusingthediscountedcashflow methodinthismerger,andintroduceregionalpolicies,coveragepopulation,regional IV economicsituation,personnelquality,medicalinstitutionlevel,hospitalnature,bed numberinempiricalanalysis.Andotherinternalandexternalfactors.Throughthe resultsofthecomparabletransactionanalysismodel,QHospitalobjectivelyreflects itsvaluethroughthecashflowdiscountmethodvalueassessmentresults,thusfurther verifyingtherationalityoffreecashflow. Throughtheaboveresearch,itisfoundthatthediscountedcashflowmethodis indeedthemostsuitableandcomprehensivemethodthatcanfullyreflecttheoverall valueofthemedicalserviceindustry.However,whenusingthismethod,weshould comprehensivelyunderstanditsgrowthcycle,valuedrivers,andriskfactorsbasedon theactualsituationofthehospitalbeingevaluated,andatthesametimeassistwith othervaluationmethodstoobtainthemostfairvaluationresults. KEYWORDS:Freecashflowmethod,Valueassessment,Hospitalmergersand acquisition V 目录 摘要......................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT........................................................................................................III 目录.....................................................................................................................V 第1章绪论..........................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景及意义.....................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景......................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义......................................................................................1 1.2国内外文献综述.....................................................................................2 1.2.1国外研究现状..............................................................................2 1.2.2国内研究现状..............................................................................3 1.2.3国内外文献评述..........................................................................4 1.3本文的研究内容及方法.........................................................................4 1.3.1研究内容......................................................................................4 1.3.2研究方法......................................................................................4 第2章企业价值评估概念及方法......................................................................5 2.1企业价值评估概念.................................................................................5 2.2企业价值的评估方法.............................................................................5 2.2.1成本法..........................................................................................6 2.2.2市场法..........................................................................................6 2.2.3收益法..........................................................................................7 第3章我国医疗服务行业特点及并购现状......................................................9 3.1我国医疗服务行业特点分析.................................................................9 3.1.1我国医疗健康产业概况..............................................................9 3.1.2我国医疗服务行业发展情况......................................................9 3.2我国医疗服务行业并购现状...............................................................11 3.2.1我国医疗服务行业并购内因....................................................13 3.2.2医院并购价值评估特点............................................................14 第4章医院并购中的价值评估方法选择及模型设计....................................17 4.1医院并购中价值评估方法的选择分析...............................................17 4.1.1运用成本法评估医院价值分析................................................17 4.1.2运用市场法评估医院价值分析................................................18 VI 4.1.3运用收益法评估医院价值分析................................................18 4.2现金流折现法模型设计.......................................................................20 4.2.1评估思路..........................................